NOVEMBER 8, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Bird E House; 2-It Is Living Water; 8-Image of Joplin

There’s a distinct possibility of a speed duel in this mini-marathon starter’s allowance turf event on turf, with both #2 It Is Living Water and #8 Image of Joplin likely to insure quick splits for the distance.  ‘Joplin seems more committed to the lead so if ‘Water takes back then ‘Joplin, a winner of two straight, could continue his winning ways for Chew.  However, neither are slam dunks to get the trip.  #1 Bird E House certainly is bred to run all day and he’s a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar turf course.  At 8-1 on the morning line the son of Birdstone may offer the best value in the race, but this is a chaotic affair in which nothing would surprise us.

SECOND RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Lucy De

This is one of the weaker maiden special weight state-bred events we’ve seen around these parts in a while.  #5 Lucy De is unexposed after finishing third in her only outing at Los Alamitos last December; she returns protected for Puype while racing with blinkers so maybe she’ll be a bit better type this time around.  The works are solid, the competition weak, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Genuine Luck; 8-Chalking It Up

When juvenile maiden claiming fillies meet over a mile, anything goes, so we’ll use two and hope to survive and advance.  #2 Genuine Luck drops in for a tag for the first time, stretches out, and gets Lasix, so there’s a very good chance she’ll improve enough to be a strong threat.  She sprints like she wants to go on and her pedigree okay’s the trip, so at 5-1 on the morning line she may offer a bit of value.  #8 Chalking It Up, second in a similar event last month at Santa Anita, isn’t fast on numbers but at least she’s improving and has the ever-popular blinkers off angle in her corner as well.  Gutierrez may try patient tactics today. 

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 2-Great Lou

#2 Great Lou has been disappointing in his last pair, failing as the favorite in both, but he sports a healthy work tab since finishing second in a similar event last month at Santa Anita and should have every chance to make amends today.  He’s won over this track in the past, retains Garcia, and earned a strong speed figure when almost four lengths clear of the rest last time out.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.

FIFTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-I’m Zonin; 6-Formally Wild

#6 Formally Wild moves up a notch via a $12,500 claim by O’Neill and certainly isn’t one to trust after failing three straight times as the favorite.  However, today he’s removing blinkers and switching to Bejarano while shortening up to five and one-half furlongs, so conditions favor an improved effort, one that might be good enough to beat this below par field.  #4 I’m Zonin looked decent beating bottom-rung maiden claimers at Los Alamitos and earned a good figure in doing so; if he repeats that effort against this stronger group at Del Mar he could easily score right back.  This is yet another race that looks treacherous so tread lightly or maybe even sit it out.

SIXTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Tusk; 5-Ninety One Assault; 7-Osceola Pond

#3 Tusk performed well in decent company in New York and Kentucky and has been sent west to get some “ship and win” money in this maiden two-turn turfer for juveniles.  The Motion-trained colt offers no value at 8/5 on the morning line but seems like a logical winner top pick.  #5 Ninety One Assault has trained like a nice sort for Desormeaux and though this stable has weak stats with debut runners this son of Artie Schiller deserves some consideration.  At 6-1 on the morning line you have to throw him in somewhere.  #7 Osceolo Pond has a decent look if he can run back to his solid runner-up effort under these conditions in late September at Santa Anita.  He also ran fairly over this course and distance when third from the 10-hole during the summer season.

SEVENTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Oligarch; 10-Power Jam

#10 Power Jam won his debut with a giant figure for Baffert last February and then went to the sidelines.  He returns with a series of strong workouts – including a bullet 46 1/5 seconds move just five days ago – and should pick up where he left off in this stronger-than-par entry-level allowance sprint.  He’s 5/2 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go a bit lower.  #5 Oligarch won an abbreviated sprint with a strong speed figure at Santa Anita last month in his first-off-the-claim for Miller; he’s probably worth a small saver in rolling exotic play just in case ‘Jam doesn’t fire for whatever reason.

EIGHTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Kiss at Midnight; 3-Our Pure Creation; 5-My Monet

It’s hard to ignore the perfect two-for-two record over the Del Mar main track (one of the wins came via a post-race disqualification) for #1 Kiss at Midnight and she has the perfect style for this extended seven furlong distance, so if the Baltas-trained filly can negotiate a decent trip from the rail she’ll be tough to beat once again.  She’s also reunited with Bejarano, who has won on her in the past.  #3 Our Pure Creation just beat ‘Midnight in the Cal Distaff at Santa Anita in an off-the-turf event; she picks up 5 lbs. today but remains a major player.  #5 My Monet was overmatched chasing Beholder home in the Zenyatta Stakes when last seen in late September; she’s back with state-bred company today and should enjoy this extended dash.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Kiss at Midnight on top.

NINTH RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Archaeo; 3-Trust Your Gut; 4-Strong Values

#3 Trust Your Gut stretches out for the first time and should find himself on or near the lead throughout.  The City Zip gelding showed a liking for turf when a good third in a Hillside dash last month, and another forward move is likely today.  #2 Archaeo, second despite mid-stretch trouble in the same race Trust Your Gut was third in, looks to have found a home on turf and seems strictly the one to beat.  By Arch from a mare by Aptitude, the O’Neill-trained gelding should relish the extra ground.  #4 Strong Values has shown a bit of run in three starts but may lack the upside of the other two.  We’ll use him on a ticket or two as a saver, nothing more.