NOVEMBER 22, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Home Journey; 5-Sunday Rules

#2 Home Journey is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and gets ideal conditions for a top effort.  Freshened since early October, the daughter of Good Journey is reunited with Baze, who has won on her in the past, and both of her races over this course and distance were quite good.  She doesn’t need the lead to win and should draft into right behind the speed, ready to pounce.  #5 Sunday Rules has been beaten just once in six starts, however, she’s unproven on turf and will be making her first appearance since July.  The works seem good enough, so if the daughter of Tribal Rule handles the lawn she’ll be tough to beat.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Home Journey on top.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C

Pass – No Play

This bottom-rung extended sprint looks like a replay of a race run here Oct. 31.  Five of the nine starters exit that race and although the winner, #8 Sunrise Legacy, returns (and he’s a tough, genuine gelding) he was 13-1 against this group and there’s no guarantee he’ll run back to that effort today.  The lukewarm morning line favorite at 7/2, #3 Relentless Heat, is winless in two years.  We’ll pass the race; rolling exotic players should spread or even hit the all button.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Ipray; 4-Luvuryan

#3 Ipray stretches out again to her best trip while moving up a notch in class for Palma and switching to Baze.  A repeat of her race before last – a sharp win over this track and distance – will make her hard to beat.  #4 Luvuryan while almost six clear of the rest when second in a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer here earlier this month and the number she earned makes her a major contender right back.  She picks up Bejarano and should fold into a nice pace-prompting position.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Ipray on top.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Desert Steel; 5-Dancinthenightaway; 6-More Complexity

This is a strong race for the level and it will take a strong effort one of the major contenders to win it.  #5 Dancinthenightaway has been away for 10 months but she can fire fresh, is a perfect one-for-one over this course and distance, and has trained like she’s fit and ready for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners.  There’s plenty of value here at or near her 6-1 morning line.  #2 Desert Steel ran better than the line will show when unplaced in the Unzip Me Stakes down the hill at Santa Anita in late September; her form over this turf course during the summer meeting was outstanding and she’ll be tough if she runs back to that today.  #6 More Complexity will be running on late and if she gets some help up front she might be able to tag the speed.  At the price we’ll prefer Dancinthenightaway on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 9-Bullish On Steve; 11-Classico

#11 Classico drops for the money run and a repeat of either one of his first two races should be good enough to beat this field.  Drawn comfortably outside and retaining Bejarano, the O’Neill-trained colt needs to leave with his field today and a good gate work at Los Alamitos since his last outing was designed to solve the problem.  #9 Bullish On Steve is a first timer with a decent series of drills and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act at this level.  The Palma barn is clever with debut runners, so at 10-1 on the morning line this son of Giacomo should be tossed in.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Kristinite; 4-Light Striker; 9-Handfull

#9 Handfull clearly looks like the one to beat in this starter’s allowance main track miler for fillies and mares but her chances are compromised by a poor outside post.  The Hollendorfer-trained mare likes the front end but there’s other speed types in the field and she doesn’t figure to get her kind of trip.  Still, she holds a distinct edge in the speed figure department and may be good enough to overcome the circumstances.  #3 Kristinite is in good form and has won over this main track in the past; she retains Baze and should be prominent throughout.  #4 Light Streaker can turn it on late and should snap back to good form with the return to the main track.  This might not be her favorite main track, however.  We’ll prefer Handfull on top but this is a spread race and we’ll try to get by using the three listed above.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Yes Yes Yes; 7-Perfectly Majestic; 9-Hobbits Hero

Tough, competitive race for second-level allowance turf milers.  #9 Hobbits Hero is boosted way up in class in a sign of confidence by Baltas and could be tough right back despite losing Bejarano.  The Aragorn has an excellent stalking style, proven form over the course, and hails from a sharp outfit.  #4 Yes Yes Yes, a strong runner-up under identical conditions at Santa Anita last month, has won over this course in the past and should be primed for another major effort.  #7 Perfectly Majestic is an improving sophomore with a strong late kick and if the pace comes up contested he’ll be heard from late.  We’ll put Hobbits Hero on top but be happy if any of our top three can there first.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Big Macher

#5 Big Macher out classes this field, gets his favorite trip, and should be along in plenty of time as the logical short priced favorite.  He actually ran better than looked in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint; he was just too far back early in a race in which the leaders never came back.  Of course, this is a much softer group.  Let’s make him a strong rolling exotic single.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Nordiac; 8-Lottie; 11-Aguacate

#8 Lottie tipped her hand with excellent performance in her debut at Keeneland in October, rallying from far back to must miss in a photo.  She arrives seeking some of that lucrative ship-and-win money and figures to be along in time with good racing luck.  #11 Aguacate is drawn poorly outside but she’s coming off a nice runner-up effort over this course and distance and if she can negotiate a decent trip she’ll likely hit the board again.  #2 Nordic is an intriguing Irish invader making her U.S. debut for D’Amato.  She looks like under Bejarano and has trained well enough to insure fitness in her first start since July.  Let’s put Lottie on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.