NOVEMBER 5, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Watdifrenzdzitmake; 5-Bayonet

Today’s opener is an uninspiring restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares that attracted just five starters.  #5 Bayonet has finished first in her last two starts against bottom-rung maiden claiming company (she was disqualified in her race-before-last) and has numbers that should make her the one to beat again.  In a small field, she’ll likely settle in mid-pack and have every chance to produce her run, though at 8/5 on the morning line she won’t offer much in the way of value.  #1 Watdifrenzdzitmake has a steady, grinding style that doesn’t allow her to make up a lot of ground, but in what figures to be a slowly run race she should be able draft into a good stalking spot from her rail post.  We’ll use both in rolling exotic play while otherwise not getting involved.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-I’ll Play My Hand; 3-Run the Show

#2 I’ll Play My Hand has speed figures that are advancing with experience and with another forward move today the D’Amato-trained gelding should be tough to deny.  The concern is the rail post at this seven furlong trip and a 7-lb. bug boy rider that has won one race from 52 mounts this year.  #3 Run the Show came off a two year layoff to finish a solid runner-up vs. similar in an abbreviated sprint at Santa Anita last month and should benefit greatly from the outing.  With the proper style for this extended sprint trip, the Cassidy-trained gelding appears strictly the one to beat.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Run the Show on top. 

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Pica; 3-Achiever’s Legacy

#3 Achiever’s Legacy makes her first start since finishing an excellent third in the Fantasy S.-G3 at Oaklawn Park in April and the works indicate she’s fit and ready for a huge effort off the bench.  She’s undefeated in two starts sprinting so the turn back in trip can be considered a positive, and her form suggests she’ll out class this second-level allowance field.  #2 Pica, first or second in eight of 14 career starts, looks like the controlling speed and is the one to fear most.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets using Achiever’s Legacy on top.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Nahem; 6-Unusually Green

#6 Unusually Green is a durable gelding whose one-paced style makes him vulnerable in races without pace, and that may be the main explanation for his 2-for-17 lifetime record. Beaten at 6/5 when runner-up in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month, the Puype-trained veteran tries a mini-marathon trip for the first time today while retaining Bejarano and likely will be a short price again.  #2 Nahem, third in the same race ‘Green exits, is clearly the controlling speed once again and will have every chance to take this field gate to wire, though he couldn’t cash in given a similar pace scenario when weakening late over 10 furlongs in that common race Oct. 2.  He does have a prior win over the Del Mar turf course and retains Garcia, so the Hollendorfer-trained gelding must be viewed as the one to fear most.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with ‘Green getting top preference.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Ponder Lea; 6-Honeythelovepenny

#4 Ponder Lea graduated gamely in a maiden seller at Santa Anita in her second career start and today makes her first appearance off the claim for Baltas while switching to Bejarano.  She’s trained well for her new connections and can be expected to produce a forward move in this starter’s allowance sprint.  Based strictly on speed figures, she’ll have to in order to win right back.  #6 Honeythelovepenny has the blinkers-off angle that we like so much and the Miller-trained filly, though beaten as the choice in a similar spot last month at Santa Anita, earned a career top number in that race and retains Talamo.  With a bullet five furlong workout at San Luis Rey Downs last week, she appears spot on for a major effort.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge on top to the progressing Ponder Lea.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Cheekaboo; 4-Roo’s Valentine

#4 Roo’s Valentine is bred to move up on turf (Vronsky) and in her first try around two-turns the Mulhall-trained filly could be tough to catch.  She’s questionable at this trip but if she’s ever going to stay a mile today she’ll do so today in her role as the controlling speed.  #2 Cheekaboo is the likely favorite and one to beat after a promising runner-up try down the Hillside course in her debut last month.  Though beaten by five lengths, he daughter of Unusual Heat closed with interest and seems likely to move forward off the effort for Eurton.  On pure numbers she’s the one to beat.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the edge on top to the front-running Roo’s Valentine.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Seeking the Sherif; 8-Basmati

#8 Basmati was a well-beaten second at even money behind Sacred Ovation in the Seal Bach Stakes at Los Alamitos while more than six clear of the others in a fast, highly-rated race.  Under the circumstance, the Baltas-trained gelding ran his race; he was simply beaten by a faster horse.  Today he gets a chance to make amends from a soft outside post over a track he’s been known to like, so we’re expecting the son of Borrego to regain his winning form.  #6 Seeking the Sherif has been chasing much tougher lately and while he’s clearly lost a step he should be a major player at this level.  Gutierrez will likely send him hard to make the lead.  We prefer the stalking trip Basmati figures to enjoy so we’ll put him on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Send Me a Sign; 6-Boat Drinks

Though she was beaten at even money when second at Santa Anita in a similar maiden special weight affair for fillies and mares last month, #5 Send Me a Sign earned a career top number and should produce another forward move today while stretching out to nine furlongs and trying turf for the first time.  The daughter of Include retains Smith and we’re expecting the Ellis-trained filly to be along in time while offering plenty of value at or near her morning line of 7/2.  We’ll have a back-up ticket using #6 Boat Drinks; she’s a seven-race maiden for Sadler but a fit on figures and is another that could improve at this nine furlong trip.  Espinoza rides her back and will attempt to have the daughter of Midshipman in an ideal stalking spot.