OCTOBER 31, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Del Mar - $9 investment

1st race: 2, 3, 5

2nd race: 2

3rd race: 3, 5

4th race: 1, 2, 5

5th race: 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:45 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Altaira; 3-Yet Anotherkafwain; 5-Amberella

#2 Altaira looked good breaking her maiden at Los Alamitos last time out and if you can trust that form – and it’s no sure thing that you can – this McCarthy-trained filly could come right back.  #3 Yet Anotherkafwain broke her maiden on this track two runs back with a competitive figure and was overmatched last time; she should go much better at this level.  #5 Amberella returns unprotected by D’Amato despite winning her debut by more than seven last April before disappearing; hard to say what kind of shape she’s in though the works at San Luis Rey Downs should have her fit enough.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

SECOND RACE (1:28 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Hye I’m Jack

#2 Hye I’m Jack catches a below par field for the level and can win with anything close to his best effort.  He’s proven over this main track and can be tough with a pace-pressing trip or from off the pace, so Nakatani has options.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (2:15 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Barbara Beatrice; 5-West Coast Storm

#3 Barbara Beatrice, freshened since June but training forwardly for D’Amato (solid with layoff runners), should be a late factor and is one of two main contenders in this first-level state-bred turf event for fillies and mares.  #5 West Coast Storm earned a career top number with a strong runner-up in a similar spot over a mile here earlier this month and may have found a home on turf; additionally, today’s extra distance might be of benefit to her.  She gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to Kennedy and should be on or near the lead throughout.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with West Coast Storm on top.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Ultimate Luck; 2-Half Dome Dude; 5-Monument

This bottom-rung claiming sprint looks treacherous so we’ll use three in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out.  #1 Ultimate Luck drops to the bottom again and this is where he fits; he should be a factor from off the pace and sports a bullet workout since raced.  #2 Half Dome Dude has some back quality and will be a threat if he’s feeling up to it.  #5 Monument is a fit on figures and has and exits a tougher starter’s allowance race at Fresno; a repeat of his race before last might make him the one to beat.

FIFTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Mokat

#7 Mokat was given a race in her debut and today should get serious.  The daughter of Uncle Mo really doesn’t have a route/turf pedigree but she trains like she’ll enjoy the added ground and she catches a rather lackluster group of juvenile maiden fillies.  With the switch to Nakatani, she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Canadian Exchange; 3-Aparri

The lackluster bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares has very little in it; we’ll try to get by using just two but the best advice might be the buy the race or simply pass it altogether.  #2 Canadian Exchange puts blinkers on first time and the equipment chance might be what she’s always wanted.  She ran well over this track three runs back, retains Maldanado, and shows a sharp half mile work at San Luis Rey Downs since her last race.  She certainly looks as good as any.  #3 Aparri, a fair third in her recent comeback, has a right to move forward with that effort behind her and in a brief sample Headley has good stats with second-off-layoff runners. 

SEVENTH RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Acceptance; 3-Perfectly Majestic

#1 Acceptance is bred to love turf (Vronsky) and finally gets a chance to prove it in this restricted stakes for 3-year-olds.  Away since January but training like he’s fit and ready, the Black-trained colt looks very dangerous in his role as the controlling speed.  #3 Perfectly Majestic, freshened since a nice score over this turf course in an allowance race, is a strong fit on figures and acts like he has plenty of room for further improvement.  These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while preferring Acceptance on top.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Finest City

#1 Finest City returns to the main track and exits a much tougher stakes race; the daughter of City Zip beats this group with a repeat of her runaway maiden score over this track and distance two runs back.  A bullet workout since her last race indicates she has all of her zip, so the Kruljac-trained filly looks like a straight play and rolling exotic single, although at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she really doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value.

NINTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Two Steps of Glory; 5-Jeremy’s Legacy; 8-Dreamarcher

#8 Dreamarcher has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for Hollendorfer and should continue her improving pattern at a distance she’s bred to like.  She continues to train like a filly with some ability and we’re expecting her to show it today.  #5 Jeremy’s Legacy shows a bit of form in Ireland and really won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.  You have to use her in an unclassified race for maiden juvenile fillies.  #2 Two Steps of Glory is improving with racing and is another that enjoy this stretch out in trip.  Look for her to be close up throughout.  Let’s give Dreamarcher a very slight edge on top while using all three in our rolling exotics.