OCTOBER 31, 2015 –
KEENELAND (BC)
JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS
& WAGERING STRATEGIES
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Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland analysis offers race-by-race wagering
strategies geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy
is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles,
pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to
augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be
achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s
analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a
moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering
strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling
exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better
indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics
pools than a horse’s actual closing odds. Jeff’s top selection
always appears in bold-faced type.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should
be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more
than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling
exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race”
strategy.
TODAY’S 50-CENT PICK-5
WAGERING STRATEGY
Keeneland - $216 investment
1st race: 1, 2, 8
2nd race: 3, 4, 7
3rd race: 2, 9, 10
4th race: 1, 3, 5, 12
5th race: 3, 7, 8, 14
A=Highest degree of confidence. B=Solid
Play. C=Least preferred, or pass
Top selection indicated in bold-face
FIRST
RACE (11:00 ET) – GRADE: B-
Use: 1-Hebbronville;
2-Lewys Vaporizer; 8-Bayerd
We’ll go to school during
the first few races of the program to see if there’s any apparent bias (track
and/or speed) that might affect our strategy in the latter races. In the opener, #2 Lewys Vaporizer earned a giant number in dismantling a softer
field at Parx last month and looks on paper to be the best of the speed
types. If he can shake loose early he
may never look back. #1 Hebbronville
could be a strong late factor if he can negotiate a good trip from the
rail. He was a closing fourth from far
back with a very wide trip in the Gallant Bob S.-G3 in his last start, although
that effort was race-shape aided. He
should be a bit closer to the pace today.
#8 Bayerd also has the
capability of making up ground late; he was nosed out by Hebbronville two races
back and then finished a close third while a length and one-half in front of
that same colt in the Gallant Bob. Let’s
use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Lewys Vaporizer
on top.
SECOND
RACE (11:30 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 3-Noholdingback
Bear; 4-Sheikh of Sheiks; 7-Moment Is Right
We’re not sure what was
behind him in his visually impressive debut maiden win over the all-weather surface
at Woodbine, but #3 Noholdingback Bear
sure seems better than his listed 15-1 morning line. The son of Put it Back is plenty quick and
came home in 12 flat in that race while earning a Beyer figure that tops
anything in this field. No, we’re not
likely to get 15-1, but even at half that price he has to be used. #4
Sheikh of Sheiks won his debut sprinting at Saratoga in clever style with a
nice figure but then failed to stay in the mud when fading on the front end in
the two-turn Breeders’ Futurity. He’s
catching an easier group today while backing up in trip, and a repeat of first
outing puts him right there. Ward has a
second runner in the field, #7 Moment
Is Right, a filly facing the
boys. She’s blazingly quick leaving the
gate and figures to be in front today for at least a while; her work tab is
light for her first start since July but with Rosario taking the call you have
to think she’s well-meant. These are the
three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while being especially intrigued by
Noholdingback Bear.
THIRD
RACE (12:06 ET) – GRADE: B+
Use: 2-Tap
to It; 9-Rachel’s Valentina; 10-Songbird
#10 Songbird is an exceptional filly – she’s undefeated in three starts, the
numbers are strong, and the form has held up – but at 7/5 on the morning and
from an extreme outside post she doesn’t offer a whole lot of value. Of course, she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic
play, but for straight wagering purposes, we’ll look elsewhere, specifically at
#2 Tap to It, listed at 8-1 on the
morning line. Arguably the most
impressive debut maiden juvenile filly sprint winner at Saratoga, the daughter
of Tapit lost little in defeat when wheeled back in just 20 days to finish a
troubled runner-up to the equally well-regarded Rachel’s Valentina in the
Spinaway S.-G1. Freshened since the
first week of September and training in spectacular style (note the 1:23 4/5
seconds breezing work at Belmont Park Oct. 7), the Ralph Nicks-trained filly
seems certain to improve over a route of ground and should have every chance to
do so from her favorable inside post position two. #9
Rachel’s Valentina also should step forward stretching out; Rachel
Alexandra’s daughter has done everything right so far and figures to settle in
in the second flight and then produce her run.
Surprisingly, Todd Pletcher has never won this race but this daughter of
Bernardini looks very much like the Real McCoy.
We’ll be very surprised if the race doesn’t come down to these three,
with Tap to It appearing to be the best gamble.
FOURTH
RACE (12:45 ET) – GRADE: B
Use: 1-Pure Sensation; 3-Undrafted; 5-Lady
Shipman; 12-Ready for Rye
This is the ultimate grass
grab bag; a full field of 14 sprinting five and one-half furlongs over what is
expected to be a good-to-yielding turf course.
The best wagering advice is to use as many as you can afford to; we’ll
go four deep and hope to get lucky. #12 Ready for Rye has won his last
three starts and the improving sophomore gelding is perfect (2-for-2) on turf,
though his most recent victory – a very impressive nearly five length romp vs.
3-year-olds in the listed Allied Forces S. – came in an off-the-turfer in the
mud at Belmont Park. This will be his
first start in more than six weeks and the work tab is noticeably light, but
the son of City Zip earned his career best number when winning the Swale S.-G2
earlier this year off a two month vacation so he clearly can fire a big shot
fresh. Drawn outside the other speed
types, ‘Rye should effortlessly draft into an ideal pace-prompting spot outside
and be ready to launch his bid when straightened for home. Espinoza takes over for Castellano (who opts
for the off-form defending champion #2
Bobby’s Kitten) and at 10-1 on the
morning line the Tom Albertrani-trained gelding offers an excellent wagering
opportunity. #5 Lady Shipman had
been unbeaten in seven career starts in turf sprints at less than six furlongs
prior to being nailed right on the money earlier this month in a non-graded
stakes for fillies and mares. She was
below her best that day for whatever reason, and it remains to be seen if she
can regain her superior summer form.
With a lifetime record of eight wins from 11 starts, the Kathleen
O’Connell-trained daughter of Midshipman deserves inclusion. Royal Ascot winner #3 Undrafted may be the most dangerous of the closing types, but will
need some luck to negotiate a good trip in a huge field. His one prior start over the local lawn
resulted in an uninspiring third place effort in the Shakerstown S.-G3 earlier
this year, and the Ward-trained gelding is winless in his five most recent
North American outings. However, his
recent workouts indicate he might be coming back to his best, so we’ll find
room on our ticket for the genuine and durable son of Purim. Finally, if you can afford to, consider
tossing in #1 Pure Sensation. Unbeaten at this abbreviated sprint distance
and a winner of three of four career starts on turf, the tough-as-nails gelding
won the Turf Monster S.-G3 at Parx last time out while earning a career top
number, and not much more will be needed today to at least land him in the
frame. He’s shown the ability to win on
the lead or from a stalking spot, so Velasquez can play by it by ear.
FIFTH
RACE (1:25 ET) – GRADE: B-
Use: 3-Taris; 7-Wavell Avenue; 8-Stonetastic; 14-Cavorting
This race is so deep and
contentious, one would hate to settle on the favorite, especially in light of
the stats that tell us 3-year-old fillies are zero-for-24 in this race since it
was inaugurated in 2007. However, #14 Cavorting packs a powerful late
kick, is improving with every outing, and has the perfect style for this seven
furlong distance in a field that has plenty of speed to set things up for a
closer. With two triple-digit Beyer
numbers in her last three races, she certainly is fast enough on pure figures
to win, and with just seven races behind her (with five wins) the daughter of
Bernardini should have upside that most of the others don’t. Extreme outside post and all, we’ll put her
on top but spread the race using other contenders. #3
Taris is better than her morning line of 12-1 gives her credit for; her
career top Beyer number (110) was achieved over this strip last year and we
believe she was a short horse when third in the L.A. Woman at Santa Anita at
odds-on earlier this month. #8 Stonetastic may be the best of the
speed types and tuned up for this race with a nearly 16 length romp over an
out-classed field at Parx while earning a career top number; the main concern,
of course, is the seven furlong trip which in the past has been a tad out of
her range. #7 Wavell Avenue is
starting to get very good for Pletcher and is another attractive price play;
she’s fresh from a career-top triple-digit Beyer figure effort when second in
the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 and gets an extra half-furlong to work with today. At
12-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Harlington is well-worth using, at
least as a saver.
SIXTH
RACE (2:10 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 3-Legatissimo;
8-Dacita
European invader #3 Legatissimo is two nose defeats
removed from a six-race winning streak against top class opposition, and if she
brings her “A” game to Kentucky she’ll beat this field. The winner of back-to-back Group-1 events by
daylight in her last two appearances, the daughter of Danehill Dancer will race
with Lasix for the first time, can handle any type of surface or distance, and
can win from close up or from well off the pace. Against a stellar field of world class
fillies and mares, her low price (she’s 8/5 on the morning line) won’t offer
much wagering value, but the Wachman-trained filly looks hard to get past. #8
Dacita, top-class in Chile before being sent to the States, won her U.S.
debut over the terrific Tepin (see BC Mile) at Saratoga with a furious late
kick and seems like the best of the locals.
As dominant as Legatissimo appears on paper, Dacita (at 8-1 on the
morning line) has to be included somewhere as at least a saver.
SEVENTH
RACE (2:50 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 5-Runhappy; 7-Holy Boss; 13-Private Zone
#13 Private Zone (5/2) and #5
Runhappy (3-1) are the two morning line favorites and we’ll certainly use
them, but #7 Holy Boss (15-1)
represents excellent long shot value so we’ll prefer him on top. ‘Boss is extremely capable as a pace-forcing
sprinter but he can rally from mid-pack as well and if a pace meltdown
materializes, this son of Street Boss could be poised to inflict major damage
in the final furlong. A winner of half
of his 10 career starts (with two of the defeats coming over a sloppy track that
he clearly doesn’t handle), the 3-year-old colt seems capable of pulling off an
upset. Runhappy was off slowly, rushed
up, took all the heat, then came away to a very impressive victory in the
Phoenix S.-G3 over a wet track earlier this month, and that smart score came on
the heels of his runaway win in the King’s Bishop S.-G1, 113 Beyer) at
Saratoga. If he breaks cleanly today,
there may be no catching him. Private
Zone is thoroughly genuine and consistent; however, he’s winless in five races
in which the opening quarter is faster than 22 seconds (and it will be today). Drawn far outside, the Macho Uno gelding will
most likely settle into a stalking position and it remains to be seen if he can
win a race like this with that type of trip.
But as genuine and consistent as he is, we wouldn’t put it past him.
EIGHTH
RACE (3:30 ET) – GRADE: B+
Use: 3-Make Believe; 7-Tepin; 9-Esoterique; 11-Karakontie
The European contingent is
quite strong and the Americans could be in trouble, save for #7 Tepin, who earned a giant figure
when winning the First Lady S.-G1 over this course and distance earlier this
month. The Casse-trained filly has
developed into the premiere female turf runner in the States but will need to
exceed her best to continue her winning form.
She has excellent tactical speed and should enjoy a trouble free-trip;
we’re expecting her to at least hit the board.
However, the Europeans offer a whole new challenge. #9 Esoterique has won back-to-back Group-1 events at Deauville and
Newmarket, respectively, and anything close to either one of those performances
likely will land her in the winner’s circle.
You can expect the Fabre-trained mare to be reserved well off the pace
and then storm home. Fabre’s other
starter is a major player as well. #3 Make Believe captured the Prix de la
Foret-G1 at Longchamp off a 10 week layoff and arrives in Kentucky fresh and
improving. He has plenty of tactical speed
and should be close up throughout.
Defending BC Mile champion #11
Karakontie won last year from an extreme outside post at 30-1, and the
victory was no fluke. He’s only had two
outings in 2015 but the Jonathan Pease-trained colt has progressing form and seems
set for another forward move. At 12-1 on
the morning line, he’s too big of a number to ignore.
NINTH
RACE (4:10 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 3-Greenpointcrusader;
7-Brody’s Cause; 9-Exaggerator
#3 Greenpointcrusader was highly impressive winning the Champagne
S.-G1, but the victory came over a sloppy surface that may (or may not) have
moved him up. If he can reproduce that
form on a fast surface – and since his maiden came on dry dirt we’re assuming
he can – then the son of Bernardini should have every chance to extend his
winning streak to three. He’s fast on
numbers, bred to handle two turns, and sports a bullet half mile workout over
this track just a few days ago. #7 Brody’s Cause already has displayed
his affection for the Keeneland main track, having won the Breeders’ Futurity-G1
by rallying from off the pace into the teeth of moderate splits to earn a
legitimate number. The Romans-trained
son of Giant’s Causeway has produced a massive forward move in each of his last
two starts and if he continues that pattern today, he’ll be very hard to
contain. #9 Exaggerator was blown away by the powerful late kick of Brody’s
Cause last time out but we’re thinking he might not have been 100% fit. The Desormeaux-trained colt has worked very
impressively since that race and seems sure to put his best stuff on display
today. We’ll use all three in our
rolling exotics; a win by any would come as no surprise.
TENTH
RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: A
Single: 1-Golden
Horn
#1 Golden Horn will be attempting to become the first horse ever to win both the
Prix de l’arc de Triomphe-G1 and the Breeders’ Cup and he’ll be odds-on to do
it. A winner of seven of eight career
starts, he was superb earlier this month in victory in Paris over a world class
field, doing so despite a poor draw, a wide trip, and without ever getting
cover. We doubt he’s over the top –
trainer John Gosden wouldn’t have brought him if he thought that there was even
a remote chance that he was – and from the rail post Frankie Dettori can save
ground throughout, bide his time, and then cut loose when ready. We’re expecting the exacta to be completed by
either #9 Found or #10 The Pizza Man – both are consistent and reliable – but for the purposes of rolling
exotic play Golden Horn should be a slam dunk single.
ELEVENTH
RACE (5:35 ET) – GRADE: A-
Single: 4-American
Pharoah
There is nothing in here
than can bother #4 American Pharoah early,
and when the Triple Crown winner finds a field he can dominate on the front end
without pressure he’s all but unbeatable.
Of course, he doesn’t need the lead to win but he’ll be happy to take it
if you hand it to him. The Bob
Baffert-trained colt required a bit of a breather after being below his best
when upset in the Travers, but now that he’s had a couple of months off to
regain his form, he’s been working lights out while giving every indication
that the last race of his career will be his best. This is a terrific field even without #10 Beholder, who had to be withdrawn a couple of days go, but given the projected race-shape, American Pharoah shouldn’t
miss as a very short priced favorite.
TWELTH
RACE (6:15 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 5-Desert Valley; 6-Clothes Fall Off; 7-Coco’s Wildcat; 8-Dr. Fager’s Gal
The nightcap is a wide-open
sprint stakes race for 3-year-old fillies that requires a spread; we’ll go
four-deep in our rolling exotics while preferring #6 Cloths Fall Off on
top. Fresh from a solid win against a
lesser field at Belmont Park earlier this month, the lightly-raced daughter of
Daaher looks quite capable of producing another forward move and appears the
most dangerous of the closing types. #8 Dr. Fager’s Gal comes off a solid
score at Los Alamitos, has competitive numbers, and should be forwardly placed
throughout. #5 Desert Valley exits a much tougher race, also is a fit on
figures, and seems better than her 10-1 morning line gives her credit for,
although her record over the Keeneland main track (winless in three starts with
one third) isn’t inspiring. #7 Coco’s Wildcat just defeated a
lesser field on turf but she can act on dirt as well and could be heard from
late if she gets any help up front.
