OCTOBER 30, 2015 – KEENELAND (BC)

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S 50-CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Keeneland - $81 investment

1st race: 2, 7

2nd race: 1, 6, 7

3rd race: 6, 7, 8

4th race: 3, 8, 9

5th race: 5, 6, 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Officer Griffin; 7-Candip

#7 Candip exits the best race, is very fast on figs, and should enjoy an ideal pace-pressing trip outside.  The Tomlinson-trained gelding is a square price at 7/2 on the morning line and rates a very slight edge over #2 Officer Griffin, who returns to his preferred surface (dirt) and is much better suited against this conditioned allowance/optional claiming field than he was in the Turf Monster Stakes at Parx last time out.  He loves to win and can do so on the lead or from a stalking position.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

SECOND RACE (1:03 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Street Blush; 6-Mercer Mill Mae; 7-Chanteline

#7 Chanteline has been something of a money burner of late – she’s been beaten as the favorite in three of her last four starts – but she finally gets off the rail (stuck on the fence in her last three outings) and after a month off seems capable or returning to her best form.  The Asmussen-trained filly should be the controlling speed.  #6 Mercer Mill Mae, second with a career-top speed figure in a similar spot at Churchill Downs last month, can fire another good shot today and figures in the frame at the very least.  #1 Street Blush, a debut winner at Saratoga last year, finally makes it back to the races and the workouts indicate fitness.  She looks like a live item for the potent Nicks/Rosario team and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she’ll be very dangerous.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and while slightly preferring Chanteline on top.

THIRD RACE (1:37 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Texas Two Step; 7-Allied Air Raid; 8-Early Entry

This is a difficult second-level allowance sprint and requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #7 Allied Air Raid, a route-to-sprint class dropper in the Cox barn, was a beaten favorite when third in the Super Derby in his last outing but should find this field well within his range.  He’s solid in the speed figure department and both of his prior sprints were good, so this seven furlong trip should be right up his alley.  We’re expecting Bridgmohan to have him along in time.  #6 Texas Two Step, freshened since April, returns to the Jones barn and has worked like he’s fit and ready for a huge run.  A prior winner over this main track, the son of Distorted Humor has back numbers that put him right there.  #8 Early Entry is another fast enough on figs to be a threat; the O’Connell-trained colt seems better than his recent races indicate and at 15-1 on the morning line the son of Keyed Entry offers legitimate long shot value. 

FOURTH RACE (2:11 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Fundamental; 8-One Go All Go; 9-Closing Bell

#9 Closing Bell verified his strong backing when winning the Derby at Kentucky Downs in game style last month; the lightly-raced Tapit colt has room for further improvement and is fast enough on speed figures to anticipate a repeat score.  We’ll put him on top but there are others than can win, too.  #8 One Go All Go will be dangerous if not policed on the front end; the son of Fairbanks just won the Commonwealth Derby at Laurel in gate-to-wire fashion at 35-1 and if given a similar trip today could easily outrun his odds once again.  #3 Fundamental, a closing second behind One Go All Go while being victimized by a lack of pace, will be tougher today with normalized fractions and could easily produce a major forward move for Brown in just his sixth career start.  All three are worth including in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets with Closing Bell on top.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Hoppertunity; 6-Protonico; 9-Commissioner

#9 Commissioner tossed in a real clunker in Foster at Churchill Downs and was stopped on; he returns with series of impressive workouts to appear fit and ready and the son of A. P. Indy has a history of firing fresh.  Good enough on his best day to beat this type of field, the Pletcher-trained colt will offer decent value in the win pool if you can get close to his 5-1 morning line odds. Pletcher has another major player in #6 Protonico.  The son of Giant’s Causeway tossed in a bad one when overmatched in the Woodward Stakes behind Liam’s Map but this race appears to offer a favorable pace scenario to a colt that prefers to set or press a moderate pace, and he could very well get that kind of trip.  Baffert’s California shipper #5 Hopportunity hasn’t won since January but he’s been facing the best in the West all season long while usually getting at least a piece of it.  He could win today with one of his better efforts.  We’ll put Commissioner on top but go three-deep in rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 8-Airoforce; 12-Camelot Kitten; 13-Cymric; 14-Hit It a Bomb

The Keeneland turf course will be something less than firm – perhaps somewhere between good and yielding – further complicating a deep and contentious field of juveniles in a various states of development.  Truthfully, this race could be won by just about any in the full field of entrants.  #14 Hit It a Bomb is the best of the European imports according to the British bookmakers and we’ll slightly lean that way despite his extreme outside draw.  The son of War Front graduated at first asking in a 22-runner maiden affair at The Curragh and then came back to score easily in a listed stakes over the left-handing Dundalk all-weather surface earlier this month while being awarded an impressive 110 Racing Post rating. Produced by a group-stakes winning daughter of Sadler’s Wells, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt shouldn’t be inconvenienced by any cut in the ground, and has a good, stalking style that should keep him free of trouble, assuming he can avoid a wide trip.  #13 Cymric missed by a neck in the Grand Criterium-G1 on Arc day in France and was finishing strongly before running out of ground.  He’s an American-bred son of Kitten’s Joy and won an allowance race over soft ground in England two races back, so he’s another that should be able to reproduce his form on any going.  #8 Aeroforce and #12 Camelot Kitten were the one-two finishers over the Keeneland course and distance in the Bourbon S.-G3 Oct. 4 and both were impressive in doing so.  Aeroforce, undefeated in two starts including a sprint maiden win at Kentucky Downs the previous month, overcame the 13-hole to win the Bourbon and should draft into a comfortable second-flight, stalking spot.  He’s legit on speed figures and is bred to improve with distance and experience.  Camelot Kitten won his debut at Belmont Park over a distance of ground in September and then moved forward considerably when rallying extremely wide from 13^th at the head of the lane in the Bourbon to be beaten just over two lengths by Aeroforce.  Similar deep closing tactics from his 12-post position likely will be employed again.  We’ll use all four in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Hit It as Bomb in the straight pool.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 ET) – GRADE: A-

Single: 3-Liam’s Map

Not that he necessarily needed it, but #3 Liam’s Map – even money on the morning line – received a considerable boost when the other expected main speed in the field, Appealing Tale, didn’t make the trip from California due to an injury.  A perfect three-for-three in his brief career at this one mile distance (though all three races were around one-turn), the son of Unbridled’s Song is fresh from a nearly five length romp in the nine-furlong Woodward S.-G1 while earning a towering 114 Beyer speed figure, this on the heels of the113 Beyer figure he achieved when narrowly missing in the Whitney-G1 to Honor Code in the final strides.  Clearly most effective on the lead but capable of stalking and pouncing if the situation demands, the Pletcher-trained colt will leave from the comfortable 3-post and should go about his business no matter which strategy Castellano chooses to employ.  There’s no value to be found in the straight pool, of course, so we’ll make him a logical rolling exotic single while expecting either #5 Lea or #1 Red Vine to complete a short-priced exacta.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 ET) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Catch a Glimpse; 8-Harmonize; 11-Pricedtoperfection

The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf has been won by European imports two of the past three years but we’re sticking with the North American contingent while using three in our rolling exotics.  #4 Catch a Glimpse was a big figure winner of the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine over good ground last month while on the lead throughout; the daughter of City Zip doesn’t strike us necessarily as a need-the-lead type but from her cozy number four post position she’ll likely be sent early to be on the front end or in a pace-stalking spot.  She’s our top pick and there’s nothing wrong at all with her 5-1 morning line.  #8 Harmonize won the P.G. Johnson S. at Belmont Park in September while on the front end but then rallied from far back while extremely wide into the stretch to win take the Jessamine S.-G3 over this course and distance three weeks ago.  The daughter of Scat Daddy should draft into a perfect, second flight, ground-saving trip and if she can secure clear sailing when it counts the Mott-trained filly should be tough to contain late.  Price player should closely consider #11 Pricedtoperfection.  A promising third going long on turf at Saratoga in her debut in August, the daughter of Temple City was as visually impressive as any maiden juvenile turf winning filly at Belmont Park just two weeks ago, winning under wraps with an impressive late turn of foot.  She’s coming back quickly for Brown, and the short rest is of some concern, but she’s certainly a whole lot better than her 20-1 morning line suggests and is a “must use” in exotic play.

NINTH RACE (5:14 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-I’m a Chatterbox; 4-Stopchargingmaria; 7-Wedding Toast

This year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff lacks a standout and requires a spread.  #7 Wedding Toast has the best credentials – she’s won eight of 12 career starts and back-to-back Grade 1 stakes – but there’s a distinct possibility that she’s considerably more effective in New York than she is anywhere else.  In fact, her only start over the Keeneland main track – a fading fourth place effort in the Madison S.-G1 last spring – is the only off-the-board performance in her career.  Additionally, she seems most comfortable on the lead but may very well have to deal with other speed-types today.  That said, we have to include her in rolling exotic play, but not necessarily make her our top pick.  Instead, we’ll look to the three-year-old ranks and give #1 I’m a Chatterbox a very slight edge.  She’s a winner of two Grade-1 races in her last three starts, and has an excellent stalking style that should allow for a perfect trip.  Though this will be her first start against older, the daughter of Munnings has speed figures that are steadily climbing and she looks primed for career top.  She was originally listed at 8-1 on the morning line, however, with the scratch of Untapable she’s certain to go lower.  #4 Stopchargingmaria is another major player off her best effort and she ran very well when runner-up in the Madision S.-G1 in her only previous appearance over the Keeneland main track.  She’s a nine-furlong specialist and should draft into a perfect pace prompting position.

TENTH RACE (6:10 ET) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Neck ‘n Neck; 8-Lynx; 14-Zambian Dream

This mile and three-quarters marathon isn’t part of the Breeders’ Cup series anymore, but it remains an intriguing race in its current format and deserves our attention.  #14 Zambian Dream is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and is a whole lot better than that.  Second in both the Chilean Guineas and the Derby last year, he’s slowly becoming acclimated to racing in the Northern Hemisphere and looks ready to produce another forward move after finishing an excellent second in a fast, highly-rated allowance race over the Keeneland main track a couple of weeks ago.  He switches to Castellano and the Pletcher-trained colt should have no difficulty with the distance.  #4 Neck ‘n Neck won a marathon stakes at Parx two races back while pressing the pace throughout and should get a similar type of trip today.  On current form, he’s the one to beat.  #8 Lynx may wind up the controlling speed and if not pressured could take this field a long way.  His best efforts have come over wet tracks; however, at 12-1 on the morning line for Wolfson and Leparaoux he’s worth tossing in somewhere.