OCTOBER 11, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $24 investment

1st race: 4, 5

2nd race: 3, 5

3rd race: 2, 3, 7

4th race: 2, 6

5th race: 3, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Kelly With a Twist; 5-Unbridled Rocket

There’s not much to work with in this maiden claiming extended sprint for juveniles and we won’t get too involved, but both #4 Kelly With a Twist and #5 Unbridled Rocket are first-time geldings and already have the kind of form that can win at this level.  ‘Rocket has the grinding, steady style that should be effective at seven furlongs, while ‘Twist has improving numbers and a healthy recent work tab for O’Neill.  We’ll give ‘Rocket a slight edge on top while using both in rolling exotic play but otherwise not get too involved.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Foxy Lover; 5-Fab Four Ever

The second race is a modest claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies and like the opener boils down to two main contenders.  #5 Fab Four Ever just won a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 dash with a career-top speed figure and if she can turn in two alike she can score again.  She’s reunited with Bejarano (who has won on her in the past) and sports a healthy work pattern since her Los Alamitos score.  #3 Foxy Lover, first off the claim for Moger, was a winner at Golden Gate Fields in late August and like Fab Four Ever earned a career top speed figure in the process.  She’s won four out of 10 career starts and her only race over a true dirt surface resulted in a 5 ½ length victory at Sacramento.  We suspect the winner will be one of these two, so both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Fab Four Ever.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Devoted One; 3-Sea Mistress; 7-Lindeza

This race has the makings of an excellent sprint for maiden juvenile fillies with a number of well-regarded first-timers in the lineup.  #2 Devoted One has been very impressive in the a.m. for D’Amato and the daughter of Broken Vow appears to have considerable quality.  A $170,000 Ocala 2-year-old in training purchase last March, she’s taken a while to make it to the post but seems ready to show her stuff right off the bat for a barn that is solid with debut runners.  She’s a sprinter type with very quick action and can be expected to be on or near the lead, assuming she breaks with her field.  #7 Lindeza brought $500,000 at the Ocala April Sale and has looked the part leading up to her first start for Sadler.  The daughter of Harlan’s Holiday sizzled a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, the fastest in the sale, while showing a long, athletic stride that indicates she’s more than just fast.  #3 Sea Mistress has done some good work in the a.m. for Hollendorfer and is another that looks fit and ready.  The daughter of Stormy Atlantic may be a bit better than her morning line of 8-1 and certainly is worth including in rolling exotic play at a bit of a price.  As we indicated, it’ll be surprising if this race doesn’t turn out to be a fast, highly-rated and productive affair.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Dreamarcher; 6-Lemon Drop Sis

Hollendorfer may have the goods here with two major players in this downhill turf sprint for juvenile maiden fillies.  #6 Lemon Drop Sis failed to run to expectations in her debut at Del Mar when winding up a well-beaten seventh as the favorite behind talented Lucky Folie, but we’re willing to give her another chance, especially over a turf course she’s bred to love.  The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid sports a bullet blowout just a few days ago and switches to Pedroza, so today we should find out what she’s made of.  The one to beat, though, is her stablemate #2 Dreamarcher.  A steady though distant third in her only outing, she should benefit greatly from the outing and has looked good in the morning since that early August race, so a forward move is expected.  She, too, should move up on turf, and with Baze riding her back the daughter of Archarcharch may offer some value in the straight pool at or around her morning line of 4-1.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Anthonysgotgame; 7-Ladies Man

This bottom-rung maiden claimer is light on contention so we’ll try to get by using the best of the known element and the best of the newcomers. #7 Ladies Man has been knocking on the door and earned a career top number when second, beaten a half-length, in a mile event at this level last month at Del Mar.  Back sprinting today, the Cerin-trained gelding should be prominent throughout and have every chance to graduate in his seventh career start.  The one to fear most is the first-timer, #3 Anthonysgotgame.  The D’Amato-trained son of Henrythenavigator has shown more than enough in the a.m. to act with this group and seems spotted to win at first asking by a barn that clicks with a respectable 17 percent with this angle.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Striding Out; 6-Show Stealer; 7-Tiz a Kiss

This first-level allowance nine furlong turf event for fillies and mares appears wide open, so we suggest you use as many as you can afford to.  #7 Tiz a Kiss seems as good as any; she was below her true form when unplaced as the favorite at Del Mar in early September but has trained well since and seems likely to bounce back with her best effort today.  A repeat of her race-before-last puts her right there.  #4 Striding Out makes her U.S. debut for Callaghan and her English form – including a maiden win at Hamilton in June – charts well with these.  The works are solid and the presence of Smith in the saddle gives indication that this daughter of Cape Cross is fit and ready.  #6 Show Stealer, in the frame in her last pair against similar competition, has a prior win over this turf course and should enjoy this nine furlong trip.  Blanc will have her running on late.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and hope to survive in a deep, difficult affair.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Kafister; 6-Well Measured

We loved the win by #5 Kafister at Del Mar – a career top performance at Del Mar – and we love his record over the Santa Anita main track (six wins in 11 starts).  He’s also proven himself at this extended sprint distance, retains Desormeaux, and continues to look sharp in the morning so we’re expecting another top effort from this Bernstein-trained gelding.  #6 Well Measured crushed a softer group at this distance last month at Del Mar and earned a huge figure in doing so.  He’s the one to fear most, and while we prefer Kafister on top, we’ll have tickets with both in our rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Lemhill Basr; 8-Miss Big Stuff

#1 Lemhill Basr was visually very impressive graduating at first asking at Los Alamitos for Baffert and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she should take this jump into stakes competition in stride.  The daughter of Quality Road has speed but can really turn it on late.  #8 Miss Big Stuff was equally impressive graduating at first asking and actually beats colts in doing so.  She’s maintained her edge in a series of solid workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and from where she’s drawn Espinoza has the option to pop and go or settle and stalk.  We’ll give Lemhill Basr a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

NINTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Housemaker; 7-Ticaboo

#7 Ticaboo was victimized by a poor outside draw and understandably weakened late after pressing the pace in a tough first-level allowance turfer at Del Mar last month but she’s in with a much easier gang today and looks capable of returning to winning form for Owens.  Pedroza stays aboard and should have this Rocky Bar filly in a comfortable pace-stalking spot, just as he did two races back in her maiden state-bred win at this same one mile trip at Del Mar.  #5 Housemaker, first off the claim for Truman, would seem to be the most dangerous of the closers and switches to Talamo.  She’s a strong fit on numbers and has won over this turf course in the past.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two with Ticaboo on top.