OCTOBER 15, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $24 investment

1st race: 2, 6

2nd race: 1, 3

3rd race: 5, 6

4th race: 2, 5, 6

5th race: 4, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Comanche Ruler; 6-Bluegrass Sight

#2 Comanche Ruler has the kind of early zip that makes him dangerous at this level and if he can shake loose early he might get brave at this abbreviated sprint trip.  He’s hardly one to trust, but nothing in here is.  #6 Bluegrass Sight is re-equipped with blinkers, has won over this track in the past, and should enjoy a good stalking trip outside.  We’ve rated this race a “C” – least preferred or pass – but if you’re playing rolling exotics these are the two you should include, plus anybody else that might catch your eye.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Pirate Flag; 3-I’m a Drama Mama

The second race is a high-priced maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies, so anything goes.  #3 I’m a Drama Mama sprints like she wants to run long and after a good foundation of four sprints stretches out for Miyadi (very strong stats with this angle).  Bred to run long on both sides of her pedigree, the daughter of Kafwain sports a healthy work tab for her first start since mid-August and should be cranked up for her best effort.  #1 Pirate’s Flag, first off the claim for Moger, adds blinkers, stretches out, lands the rail, and seems very likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics.  She’s bred to run this far and may be dangerous if she can relax a bit in the early stages.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with I’m a Drama Mama on top.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Pepnic; 6-Fueled by Bourbon

#5 Pepnic moves up a notch after a sharp score in an abbreviated turf sprint at Del Mar; the Spawr-trained veteran has won down the hill in the past, has a healthy work pattern, and should be set for another top effort.  Talamo will have him rolling in the final furlong.  #6 Fueled by Bourbon is a lightly-raced 3-year-old tackling older but he’s a fit on figures and ran quite well in two starts over this course and distance earlier this year.  Freshened since mid-August and retaining Baze, the Blacker-trained colt should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot.  Preference on top goes to Pepnic but we’ll use both in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Afleet Domination; 5-Nicaradalic Rocks; 6-Money Makin Mike

This is another difficult, unclassified maiden claimer for juveniles; we’ll try to get past it going three-deep.  #2 Afleet Domination, first off the claim for Becerra, is improving with racing, has rising speed figures, and looks primed for another forward move.  Second over this track and distance on opening weekend, the son of Afleet Alex should be doing his best work late and is the one to beat.  #5 Nicaradalic Rocks returns to the main track and drops to his lowest level; the Desormeaux-trained colt is another that figures to be running on late.  #6 Money Makin Mike showed nothing against tougher straight maiden foes in his debut but at 3-1 got plenty of support and probably deserves another chance, especially at this level.  He’s got enough early zip to be a strong pact factor stretching out and with the switch to Bejarano the O’Neill-trained colt is a “must use.”

FIFTH RACE (3:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Ya Ya Girl; 7-Sweeter Thancandy

The fifth race is another maiden claimer, this one on turf for $50,000 older fillies and mares.  #7 Sweeter Thancandy seems as good as any; she has that powerful first-time-in-a-claimer angle going for her and her numbers are more than good enough to win at this level.  The Glatt-trained filly offers some value at 6-1 on the morning line and in a race without a whole lot of speed should be able to secure a good, second flight position.  #4 Ya Ya Girl has might be a dangerous pace factor with these and if she can get away with slow fractions up front she might never look back.  We’ll use both in rolling exotic play and then have an extra ticket or two with Sweeter Thancandy on top.

SIXTH RACE (3:42 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Runningwiththelute; 2-Moscato Girl; 4-Really a Princess

The tough races continue.  #1 Runningwiththelute is a first-off-the-claim for Machowsky and is adding blinkers, so improvement certainly is possible; she’s also has route-to-sprint and turf-to-dirt angles working for her and back numbers that are good enough to beat this field.  Let’s hope she can work out a decent trip from the rail.  #2 Moscato Girl likes this main track – all three of her career wins have come over this surface – and she also prefers this abbreviated sprint distance.  The barn doesn’t win many but the daughter of Desert Code can be dangerous with anything close to her best effort.  #4 Really a Princess exits a tougher starter’s allowance sprint on turf up north and returns in two weeks over a track she’s run well over in the past.  The Bonde-trained filly should be a dangerous pace presser and could stick around for a long time against this group.  We’ve rated this race a “C” (least preferred or pass) so tread lightly.

SEVENTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-It Is Living Water; 9-Durango Flier; 10-What a View

This grass grab bag goes deep in contention and is another that probably requires a substantial spread.  #10 What a View must leave from an extreme outside post but if he can manage to get over and establish the running without having to be used hard he could take this field a very long way.  A repeat of his race-before-last (a gate-to-wire win from an outside draw) might be good enough.  #9 Durango Flier, a strong runner-up at Del Mar against a similar field, will be in the battle again if he runs back to that race today.  His only career win came over this course and the Eurton barn has started to heat up again.  #2 It Is Living Water should inherit an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip from his good inside post and the Miller-trained gelding is another with solid form over this course.  He switches to Espinoza and seems quite capable of returning to top form in his first start since August. 

EIGHTH RACE (4:42 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Moossa’s Legacy; 8-My Silver Cat; 11-Take It Easyplease

The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares with #8 My Silver Cat dropping in to a very soft spot and appearing to be a logical top pick.  The Miller-trained daughter of D’wildcat got some action (9-1) in her debut vs. straight maidens last month and although she was well-beaten after a slow start she’s very likely to improve considerably off the effort.  She’s worked well since that race, switches to Talamo, and deserves some consideration as a single for small ticket players.  #11Take It Easyplease actually finished first two runs back but was disqualified; the Miyadi-trained filly is a fit on figures and should settle into a good stalking position outside.  #3 Moossa’s Legacy, a decent Los Alamitos runner-up in her debut at this level last month, has a right to produce a forward move for Sise and is worth including on a ticket or two.