Jeff Siegel's Elite-8 Breeders' Cup Rankings

Updated October 13, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 - American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 - Beholder (R. Mandella)

3 - Tonalist (C. Clement)

4 - Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

5 - Gleneagles-IR (A. O’Brien)

6 - Keen Ice (D. Romans)

7 - Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

8 - Smooth Roller (V. Garcia)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division.  In his fourth workout since that race, the Triple Crown winner worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 seconds at Santa Anita Oct. 9.  Trainer Bob Baffert will be expecting something more significant in the colt's final two workouts leading up to the race.  Beholder maintained her edge in what was nothing more than an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes Sept. 26 at Santa Anita in her final BC prep, winning in a common gallop. The duaghter of Henny Hughes breezed five furlongs in 1:02 seconds Oct. 9 and will have one more workout at Santa Anita before she ships to Keeneland on Oct. 19.  Tonalist was superb winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 over his favorite track (Belmont Park) and surface (wet).  Meanwhile, Honor Code was below his best form when a non-threatening third over that same very wet track in the Kelso S-G2 in his final tune-up; clearly he's very good when things set up well for him, but it's obvious that he's pace dependent.  Smooth Roller joins the list following his highly-rated victory in the Awesome Again S.-G1, though he couldn’t have drawn up a more perfect trip if he tried.  As for any challenges from Europe, Gleneagles-IR is considered more likely than not to enter the BC Classic, though he could have a prior run in the Qipco Champions Stakes at Ascot this weekend, depending upon whether the firm ground specialist gets his preferred conditions. The son of Galileo is undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but his dam is a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and trainer Aidan O’Brien reportedly believes he’ll be suited by the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions. 

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 - Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)

2 - Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

3 - Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

4 - Red Vine (C. Clement)
5 - Lea (W. Mott)

5 - Valid (M. Vitali)

6 - Bradester (E. Kenneally)

7 - Iron Fist (J. Hollendorfer)

ANALYSIS – Trainer Todd Pletcher has announced that Liam’s Map will start in the BC Dirt Mile, rather than the Classic, and there's little doubt that the son of Unbridled's Song will be the strong favorite in this race. His win in the Woodward S.-G1 was outstanding, but the BC Classic trip of 10 furlongs is likely out of his range, whereas this two-turn mile - especially considering the Keeneland short stretch for this distance - seems ideal for this need-the-lead speedster. Appealing Tale, took the Kelso H.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion over a very wet track that he clearly enjoyed.  His connections are hoping for similar weather on BC day. Wicked Strong was an admirable runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 behind Tonalist; a mile might not be his best trip but he'll fit much better against this level of competition so we suspect his connections will opt for the Mile.  Lea could run in either this race of the BC (turf) Mile; he's effective on both surfaces though this race would likely be the less difficult of the two.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 - Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 - Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

3 - Free Eagle-IRE (D. Weld) 
4 - Postponed-IRE (R. Varian)

5 - Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

6 - The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

7 - Twilight Eclipse (T. Albertrani)
8 - Big John B (P. D'Amato)

ANALYSIS – Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship S.-G1 and then followed that outstanding performance with a superb score in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 on Sunday.  A trip to Kentucky for the BC Turf seems likely at this point; British bookmakers now are listing the John Gosden-trained colt at 4/5 for the race.  Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer S.-G1 and then lost little when an excellent second to Golden Horn in the Arc. There's every expectation that he'll return to the States, setting up a potential rematch with the Arc winner; however, trainer Andre Fabre says he'll only run if the ground is firm.  Free Eagle-IR, a badly hampered third behind Golden Horn at Leopardstown, finished sixth, beaten four lengths, in the Arc; his connections were somewhat disappointed in the outcome (blaming, in part, a slow pace) and a trip to Keeneland is an option being considered. Postponed-IR won the Prix Foy-G2 at Longchamp in September and then was transferred from Luca Cumani's yard to Roger Varian's.  Big Blue Kitten may be the best of the American contingent following his course record-setting victory in the Hirsch S.-G1 but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 - Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 - Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 - Wild Dude (J. Hollendorfer)

4 - Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)
5 - Salutos Amigos (D. Jacobson)

6 - Big Macher (R. Baltas) 
7 - Barbados (M. Tomlinson)
8 - Kobe's Back (P. Eurton)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, which is why they gave the BC Dirt Mile some consideration.   However, with Liam's Map a confirmed starter in the Mile, 'Zone will remain here. Runhappy remained unbeaten in sprint races with a highly impressive wet-track victory in the Phoenix S.-G3 at Keeneland. Barbados, BC Sprint champion Work All Week (since retired), and Holy Boss followed him home.  The California-based Wild Dude is a prototype late-running sprinter; the faster they go up front, the better chance he has.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 - Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre)

2 - Muhaarar-GB (C. Hills)                       

3 - Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)

4 - Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)

5 - Obviously-IR (P. D’Amato)

6 - Tepin (M. Casse)

7 - Grand Arch (B. Lynch)
8 - Tourist (W. Mott)

ANALYSIS – Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France last month and then was thoroughly convincing taking the Sun Chariot S.-G1 at Newmarket on the first Saturday in October.  At age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.  Muhaarar-GB has been a high class sprinter this year – he’s won three straight Group-1 stakes at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Deauville, respectively – but trainer Charles Hills believes the son of Oasis Dream would be ideally suited by the extra ground offered by the BC Mile at Keeneland. He'll first run in the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot Oct. 17 and then, as Hills put it, "well take it from there." Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form while Mondialiste-IR got his ticket paid for with his victory in the Woodbine Mile-G1.  Obviously-IR, in his first start of the year, finished an excellent third at Woodbine in race that should do him wonders.  Tepin, extremely impressive winning the First Lady S.-G1, shows up on this list because her connections believe she is better suited for a mile rather than the mile and three-sixteenths distance of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 - Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 - Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)

3 - Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

4 - Untapable (S. Asmussen)

5 - Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

6 - Yahilwa (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - I'm A Chatterbox (L. Jones)

8 - Curalina (T. Pletcher)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast has won eight of 12 in including a romp in the Beldame S.-G1.  With Beholder opting for the Classic, the daughter of Street Sense should inherit the favorite’s role.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  Got Lucky rises in the rankings following her determined win in the Spinster S.-G1 at Keeneland over Untapable, Yahilwa, and Frivolous.  The three year old fillies are good, not great, with I’m a Chatterbox, Curalina, and Stellar Wind needing to raise their game just a bit to be a serious threat vs. the older mares.   

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 - Legatissimo-IR (D. Wachman)

2 - Dacita-CH (C. Brown)
3 - Jazzi Top-GB (J. Gosden)

4 - Secret Gesture-GB (R. Beckett)

5 - Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

6 - Watsdachances (C. Brown)

7 - Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)

8 - Photo Call-IR (G. Motion)

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and according to trainer David Wachman is ticketed for the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa S.-G2 while verifying her superior Chilean form. Jazzi Top-GB, beaten in a photo in the Prix de L'Opera, woukld be a major player should trainer Joshn Gosden choose to bring her.  Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D Stakes, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and would seem like a logical starter in the race again in 2015.  Stephanie's Kitten got back on track with a win in the Flower Bowl S.-G1 over a soft turf course.  We're still expecting a name or two to emerge from Europe prior to next week's pre-entry stage.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 - Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                

2 - Stonetastic (K. Breen)

3 - Ben's Duchess (J. Sadler)

4 - Taris (J. Sadler)

5 - Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

6 - La Verdad (L. Rice)

7 - Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher) 
8 - Wavell Avenue (C. Brown)

ANALYSIS – Cavorting has the closing style that appears ideally suited for this seven furlong trip and continues to improve with each race. Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win vs. overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  Ben's Duchess is an improving prototype late-running sprinter coming off triple-digit Beyer performance when winning the L.A. Woman at the expense of odds-on Taris.  The latter finished a disappointing third in that race after being caught four-wide battling on a torrid pace.  She had been trained lightly since her victory in the Rancho Bernardo S.-G2 at Del Mar in August and ran like she needed the race badly.  La Verdad won the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 in typically game fashion but the BC trip of seven furlongs is stretching her limit. 

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 - Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 - Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 - Undrafted (W. Ward)

4 - Ageless (A. Delacour)

5 - No Silent (G. Mandella)

6 - Pure Sensation (C. Clement) 
7 - Mongolian Saturday (E. Ganbat)                     

8 - Amelia's Wild Ride (R. Preciado)

ANALYSIS – Lady Shipman had her perfect record of seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs snapped when she lost a photo to Ageless in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County S. at Keeneland Oct. 9, but we're going to assume that she will benefit from the outing and be a tighter and tougher when it really counts on Breeders' Cup day.  Ageless suffered a substantial gash on her left hind leg in that race and while no structural damange was report she did have to be sent to Hagyard Equine Clinic near Keeneland for observation.  Her Breeders' Cup status should be determined in the next few days.  Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S. in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win and probably is even more effective on turf.   We have not included any Europeans on this list, though Undrafted did invade Royal Ascot in June to win the Group-1 Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who will be reunited with the Wesley Ward-trained colt for this race. Amelia's Wild Ride, winner of the off-the-turf Woodford S., is under consideration but needs to be supplemented.  Bobby's Kitten, far below form in two 2015 starts, will defend his BC Sprint title, according to trainer Chad Brown.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 - Brody's Cause (D. Romans)

2 - Greenpointcrusader (D. Schettino)

3 - Nyquist (D. O'Neill)
4 - Hit it a Bomb (A. O'Brien)

5 - Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

6 - Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

7 - Swipe (K. Desormeaux)

8 - Riker (N. Gonzalez)

ANALYSIS – Brody's Cause is a rapidly progressing colt and produced an impressive late kick to win the Breeders' Futurity-G1 over the same course and distance of the BC Juvenile. The victory came on the heels of a smart recent maiden win at Churchill Downs and with his pedigree and true route style the son of Giant's Causeway looks like the one to beat. Greenpointcrusader was outstanding when winning the Champagne S.-G1 while earning a legitimate number.  The wet track makes it difficult to truly gauge his performance but we sure liked what we saw.  Nyquist is undefeated in four starts including victories in two Grade One events – the Del Mar Futurity and the FrontRunner S. – but he’s not fast on speed figures and probably hasn't been beating all that much on the West Coast. Hit It a Bomb is an undefeated (in two starts) stakes winning son of War Front from the O'Brien yard that won a an all-weather event at Dundalk impressively last week.  He's supposed to be headed our way.  Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special S.-G2 but was no match for Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity, failing to match strides with that colt in the final furlong after hitting the front entering the lane. He may have been a tad short for the race, or perhaps he's better around one turn.  Riker is undefeated in Canada - he won the Grey S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion while setting easy splits - and will get tested against the big boys at Keeneland. 

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 - Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

2 - Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

3 - Tap to It (R. Nicks)

4 - Nickname (S. Asmussen)

5 - Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

6 - Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)

7 - Gomo (D. O'Neill)

8 - Gamble's Ghost (J. Carroll)

ANALYSIS – The victory by Songbird in the Chandelier S.-G1 vaults her to the number one spot in our rankings but the margin is thin over Rachel’s Valentina.  The difference is that the Hollendorfer-trained filly has proven herself around two turns and her number was strong. The victory by Rachel’s Valentina in the Spinaway S.-G1 gave the impression that she'll handle a route of ground as well.  However, she missed a workout last weekend (Pletcher says she'll breeze later this week), leading us to wonder if all is not right with her.  Tap to It performed gallantly when second in the Spinaway - the quick turnaround from her maiden win did her no favors - and is another that will appreciate two-turns. Nickname and English invader Nemoralia finished one-two in the Frizette-G1 but the very wet track that makes the result hard to trust. Land over Sea, third in the Debutante behind Songbird and then second to her again in the Chandelier, might actually be better on turf but reportedly this is where she’ll run along with stablemate Gomo, who splashed to victory in a very weak renewal of the Alcibiades S.-G1. 

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 - Airoforce (M. Casse)

2 - Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)

3 - Camelot Kitten (C. Brown)

4 - Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

5 - Isotherm (G. Weaver)

6 - Ray’s the Bar (C. Brown)

7 - Azar (T. Pletcher)

8 - Sky Marshal (B. Minshall)

ANALYSIS – We have no current European-based runners listed but you know they're coming.  When confirmations begin to trickle in we'll include them in our rankings. The major yards (O’Brien, Gosden, et al) more than likely will be represented.  As for the North American-based runners, trainer Mark Casse is sitting pretty with a pair of excellent prospects.  Airoforce improved his record to two-for-two with a smart score in the Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland and has the best resume of the locals. Conquest Daddyo is a Scat Daddy colt that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Camelot Kitten, a full-brother to Bobby's Kitten, was a strong closing second behind Airoforce and with another forward move will be very dangerous on Breeders' Cup day. Hollywood Don has won twice going long on turf, a maiden at Del Mar (on the lead) and then the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. (off the pace) while earning strong figures in both.  His third place effort behind Nyquist in his first try on dirt in the FrontRunner S,-G1 was not very inspiring so the son of Tapit will go back to turf.  Isotherm was an upset winner of the Pilgrim S.-G3; however, the entire field finished in a heap so it may not have been much of a race.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 - Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 - Harmonize (W. Mott)
3 - Stays in Vegas (J. Hollendorfer)
4 - Alice Springs-IRE (A. O'Brien)

5 - Tin Type Gal (G. Motion)

6 - Last Waltz-IRE (C. Brown

7 - Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

8 - Sapphire Kitten (J. Sharp)

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division over the two-time turf stakes winner Harmonize.  The latter won the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga on the front end but changed tactics to capture the Jessamine S.-G3 from off the pace at Keeneland. Stays in Vegas made her turf debut in the Surfer Girl S. at Santa Anita and improved a ton to win impressively, just as you would expect a daughter of City Zip to do.  Alice Springs-IRE is a maiden but Group-1 placed in Ireland for Aidan O'Brien and reportedly the daughter of Galileo is under strong consideration for this race.  Tin Type Gal is unbeaten in two starts following her workmanlike victory in the Miss Grillo S.-G3 over Thrilled.  Last Waltz-IR, a close third in a recent Group-3 in Ireland, has been purchased privately and will join the Chad Brown barn as a probable starter.