OCTOBER 4, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $2 investment

1st race: 4, 6

2nd race: 7

3rd race: 5

4th race: 8

5th race: 5, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Privileged One; 6-Fast Magoo

The opener, for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares, appears to have two major players but neither offers much in the way of wagering value.  #4 Privileged One, away since February, returns in a logical spot but the barn has poor stats with layoffs and this filly has no history of running well fresh.  She’s good enough to win with a repeat of her race before last and attracts Bejarano, so we’ll use her but not with a great deal of confidence.  #6 Fast Magoo drops to her lowest level ever for Cerin and makes a major switch to Nakatani.  Drawn comfortably outside and with the proper style for this extended sprint distance, the Cerin-trained filly has run well over this track in the past and should enjoy a lovely stalking trip.  Preference on top goes to Fast Magoo but we’ll certainly tread lightly.

SECOND RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 7-Tough It Out

#7 Tough It Out was left at the gate in his debut and then closed a world of ground to finish fifth, after which he galloped out strongly and was actually in front of the pack entering the clubhouse turn.  If he leaves with his field today he should beat this modest bunch of state-bred juveniles.  Nicely drawn outside and working very well since his first race (including a strong recent gate drill), the son of Grazen switches to Talamo, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Taris

#5 Taris cruised to a very easy win in the Rancho Bernardo H.-G3 in her comeback at Del Mar and has been kept on edge since that mid-August event with a series of sharp, easy drills.  She’s 6/5 on the morning line to win again, and she’ll probably go lower in what will be her final prep prior to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint later this month.  #1 Unforgettable U earned a giant figure demolishing a softer field and is vastly improved since joining the Baltas barn.  She’ll make Taris work for it, and you may find the need to save with a ticket or two with her in rolling exotic play.  But we’re expecting Taris to prevail late.

FOURTH RACE (2:28 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-At Ease

This race was originally scheduled for turf but will now be contested on the main track.  #8 At Ease ran well in both of his starts at Del Mar – both on grass - and continues to impress in the morning, indicating that another forward move is likely.  The Black-trained gelding was likely best when beaten last time out and if he handles the dirt he should be tough to beat.  At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

FIFTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Red Stich; 7-Tiz Pleasant

#5 Red Stich drops into a claimer for the first time and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.  The Mulhall-trained filly was sent over a distance of ground on turf vs. straight maidens in her first two starts and didn’t run too badly; today she shortens to a sprint and switches to the main track.  A bullet three furlong blowout last week should have her right on edge.  #7 Tiz Pleasant isn’t fast on numbers but she’s a trier and from her cozy outside post she should draft into an ideal pace prompting position.  She switches to Bejarano and at 8/5 on the morning line is logically the one to beat.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving the edge on top to Red Stich.

SIXTH RACE (3:32 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Highway Boss; 5-Peacenluvpeancenluv

This race was originally carded for turf but will be contested on the main track. #4 Highway Boss, first off the claim for Palma, has looked sharp in the a.m. since joining his new outfit and seems to be a progressive type ready to produce another forward move.  His main track form isn’t bad so we doubt he’ll be inconvenienced by the switch in surface.  The son of Street Boss likes to settle back and produce a late run and hopefully there will be enough pace with what’s left in this race to make his late kick effective.  #5 Peacenluvepeacenluv was a clever winner against a slightly softer group at Del Mar two runs back and returns to the claiming ranks today while retaining Talamo.  He’s another that has done some good work on dirt in the past.

SEVENTH RACE (4:02 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Tough Sunday; 8-Matriculate

#3 Tough Sunday broke his maiden on this track with a good number last December and we’re expecting to see him return to that type of form today after a couple of solid efforts at Del Mar.  He has a good stalking style and we view this switch to Gonzalez as a positive move.  #8 Matriculate has been highly disappointing since a very impressive debut maiden win over this track last May.  He’s a first-time gelding today, and with a couple of sharp recent workouts to his credit the Spawr-trained son of Lucky Pulpit could rebound in a big way.  We’ll give Tough Sunday the edge on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:33 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-A Kiss at Midnight; 7-Home Journey

This race originally was scheduled for the Hillside course and now will be contested on the main track.  #4 Chaulk O Lattey has been scratched – she would have been our top choice – but Baltas’ other entrant, #3 Kiss at Midnight, remains in the race and with the switch to dirt she’s a contender.  #7 Home Journey looks very much like the controlling speed if she starts but her main track form is non-existent.  As of this writing she’s still in the race.  This is a race that’s best left alone.

NINTH RACE (4:43 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 6-Joan of Arch; 7-Nine Point Nine

This maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies is a mess so best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  #6 Joan of Arch drops into a claimer for the first time – always a good angle – and at this level her form could improve dramatically.  A runner-up effort to subsequent Alcibiades S.-G1 winner Gomo two runs back on turf actually looks pretty good in this context, though Gomo could have won by 15 that day if asked.  #7 Nine Point Nine has some zip and could be the controlling speed as she stretches out for the first time.  Garcia stays aboard for Dollase and she’s another dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming.  These are the two we’ll prefer but nothing would surprise us so spread as deeply as you can afford to.