OCTOBER 23, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $54 investment

1st race: 2, 5

2nd race: 1, 2

3rd race: 1, 3, 6

4th race: 1, 4, 8

5th race: 3, 7, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Derby Glass; 5-Gunslinger

Today’s early daily double doesn’t offer a lot to work with.  #5 Gunslinger is a first-time gelding in the opener and remains protected by O’Neill despite a couple of recent disappointing runs against similar starter’s allowance foes.  He’s a strong fit on figures so perhaps he deserves one more chance, although at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not much value to be found.  #2 Derby Glass, a good second in the same Los Alamitos race that Gunslinger just finished third in, has good form over this main track and retains Bejarano.  He should have an impact late.  We’ll use both in rolling exotic play but otherwise not get too involved.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Gloryzapper; 2-Never Ends

This is another race that doesn’t offer a good wagering opportunity; it’s a five-runner affair with two standouts.  #1 Gloryzapper stretches out for the first time (bred for it) and continues to impress in the a.m. for D’Amato.  Strangely, she’s removing blinkers today despite being unbeaten in two starts while wearing the hood.  #2 Never Ends earned a career top speed figure when demolishing a first-level allowance field here earlier this month; anything close to that effort today will make her very tough despite the class hike.  She’s been first or second in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track in the past.  These two are hard to separate and both will be short prices, so we’ll pass the race while using both in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Intoxicating Move; 3-Ramona’s Wildcat; 6-Not too Shiny

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a competitive downhill turf sprint for second-level allowance fillies and mares.  #1 Intoxicating Move may have been in too tough vs. stakes foes last time out but she’s back where she belongs today and returns to a course she’s shown a preference for.  Rail and all, the Carava-trained mare could be the one to beat with Nakatani staying aboard.  #3 Ramona’s Wildcat may be most effective as a turf sprinter and gets ideal conditions today after a couple of recent dull efforts on dirt.  She’s run well for Bejarano in the past and is another exiting a much tougher race.  #6 Not too Shiny looked good winning a straight $40,000 claimer from off the pace in an abbreviated turf sprint and Del Mar and she’s run quite well in the past over this Hillside layout as well.  She’s a fit on numbers and is worth using at 5-1 on the morning line.  Let’s go three-deep in our exotics and then press a bit with Intoxicating Move on top.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Urlacher; 4-Nightly News; 8-Mor Spirit

This is a stronger than par two-turn maiden event for juveniles and a good prospect or two should emerge.  #8 Mor Spirit, an excellent second in his debut, seems likely to improve for Baffert with experience and distance and is clearly the one to beat, though at 7/5 on the morning line he offers little in the way of value.  #4 Nightly News, another Baffert entrant, seems to be stepping forward with racing and is worth using as well.  #1 Urlacher has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for Harty and should be prominent throughout from the rail.  Graham stays aboard and a sharp recent five furlong drill by the son of Discreet Cat indicates better is forthcoming.  ‘Spirit gets the edge on top but all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Soresca; 7-With a Twist; 8-Augustina de Aragon

This $40,000 claiming turf router for fillies and mares has several possibilities, so we’ll spread the race hoping to find a decent price.  #3 Soresca returns to her claiming level for D’Amato and retains Baze; the Irish-bred filly packs a potent stretch kick and with good racing luck could produce the last run.  #7 With a Twist moves up two notches in class off the claim by D’Amato and looked good winning her California debut at Del Mar with a sharp late kick.  This group could easily be within her range and Desormeaux stays aboard.  Her morning line of 9/2 seems about right.  #8 Agustina de Aragon ran well when second for this tag two runs back at Del Mar and her best puts her right there, though the outside post is a bit of a negative.  If given the patient ride she needs from Graham, the Baltas-trained mare could make some serious noise in the final furlong.  Let’s put Soresca slightly on top but this is a spread affair and if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Classic Gent; 7-Kenjiislucky

#5 Classic Gent has been spotted above his claim level by Miller for five races since being claimed for $20,000 in May; the results have been less than satisfying so the son of Old Fashioned drops for the money run in this $16,000 affair restricted to 3-year-olds.  He’s a perfect two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track and we’re expecting the sophomore gelding will return to his best form under these conditions.  #7 Kenjiislucky turned in a decent runner-up effort in is first local start since shipping in from the Midwest and has every right to produce a forward move.  He switches to Baze and at this elongated sprint distance should be a pace factor throughout.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; Classic Gent probably deserves an extra ticket or two.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 10-Hobbits Hero; 12-Buymeabond

The two that we like the best in this mile turf event for mid-grade claimers are stuck outside, so if you have the resources to go deep in rolling exotic play this is a race that probably demands a spread.  #12 Buymeamond gets the worst of the draw but he likes to win, likes this turf course, and drops a notch while remaining above his claim level for Carava.  A repeat of his race before last should be good enough and Nakatani stays aboard.  #10 Hobbits Hero, first off the claim for Baltas, returns to his favorite course (three wins in four starts) and switches to Bejarano.  The son of Aragorn should be on or near the lead throughout.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Kiss My Face; 9-Seaward Cottage

The nightcap is a weak bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares; we’ll try to get by using just two.  #9 Seaward Cottage is drawn nicely outside, drops to her lowest level, removes blinkers, and retains Bejarano.  There should be no excuses today.  #4 Kiss My Face switches to Desormeaux and seems to be gradually improving for Powell.  With another forward move – even a slight one – she should at least finish in the frame.  ‘Cottage gets top billing and small ticket players looking for single should give her consideration.