OCTOBER 22, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $9 investment

1st race: 7

2nd race: 1, 3, 5

3rd race: 2

4th race: 2, 3, 6

5th race: 7, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 7-Small Town Shuffle

The opener is an abbreviated sprint for state-bred juvenile maiden claimers and appears to be an ideal spot for #7 Small Town Shuffle.  Second with a career-top speed figure in a slightly softer spot earlier this month, the Miyadi-trained gelding was three clear of the rest after pressing the pace in that race and really won’t have to improve much to graduate against this group.  Nakatani stays aboard and should have the son of Aragon in an ideal pace-prompting position.  This slightly shorter trip is another plus.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single but we wouldn’t recommending taking too much less than his 5/2 morning line odds.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Tatum’s Gold; 3-Quinnette; 5-Sadie Clare

This is a race we’ll pass while including three of the five starters in rolling exotic play.  #5 Sadie Clare is stretching out for the first time and has the style and pedigree to get the trip.  #3 Quinnette has been first or second in four of six starts over the Santa Anita main track and should settle into a perfect, second flight, stalking spot.  #1 Tatum’s Gold is trying two-turns for the first time, has a prior win over this track, and has shown some improvement in the a.m. recently for Miyadi.  She also gets the rail and a break in the weights and has a couple of back figures over this main track that chart very well at this level. 

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 2-Suavemente

The Pick-6 begins with the third race.  #2 Suavemente is a first-time gelding for Bonde and is making his first start since early June.  He flashed very good speed vs. straight maidens in both of his previous starts and figures to stick better against this maiden claiming field.  The recent workouts are slow but they’re not bad so we’re going to assume he’s fit and ready for a big effort against this shortened sprint trip.  Since the other major contender in the race, #1 Collect the Debt, is a morning scratch off the program, Suavemente becomes a straight play and rolling exotic single for us.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Roo’s Valentine; 3-Hurricaine Callie; 6-Lucky to Win

This maiden sprint for juvenile fillies looks like a below average race for the level; we’ll go three deep and hope to survive and advance.  #2 Roo’s Valentine, third in both of her starts, shortens to six furlongs and the drop back in trip could make her tough to catch.  She’s not particularly fast on numbers, but nobody is in this race, and with a couple of nice workouts since her last race she may have a bit of improving to do.  #3 Hurricane Callie, runner-up in three straight races – each one in a photo finish – is overdue for a win and is the logical choice after winding up four lengths clear of Roo’s Valentine in their common race Sept. 27.  The Miller-trained filly is 9/5 on the morning line and might go lower.  #6 Lucky to Win is a first-timer with a decent series of drills and attracts Bejarano.  She certainly won’t have to be a world beater to fit with these. 

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Broken Up; 8-Unusually Big

#7 Broken Up is lightly-raced with rising speed figures and is dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming.  The Mandella-trained colt is scheduled to be sold at auction next week, so you know it’s a “go” today.  #8 Unusually Big has a few back numbers that put him in the hunt, and after a brief freshening since late August the Sherman-trained gelding should be primed for one of his better efforts.  In a weak race for the level, the winner really should be one of these two, Broken Up gets preference on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Perfect Set

#6 Perfect Set really has gotten good of late for Hollendorfer and seems well-spotted to continue his extra sharp form.  A winner of two straight and three of his last five, the son of Pleasantly Perfect continues to impress in the morning and should settle into an ideal, second flight position, ready to pounce when called up.  However, at 6/5 on the morning line he offers little in the way of value, other than as a rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Wanstead Gardens; 4-Abbey Vale

#2 Wanstead Gardens is a true 10-furlong specialist (he’s won his last two starts at this trip) and seemed primed for another huge run.  His most recent win was his best – a thoroughly convincing victory over the razor sharp Texas Ryano – and not much more will be needed to win again despite the raise in class.  Stevens knows him well and fits him perfectly.  #4 Abbey Vale deserves some consideration as well; the Irish-bred gelding finished a solid third in the recent King Pellinore Stakes (behind the aforementioned Texas Ryano) and makes a major switch to Bejarano.  Two of his three career wins have come over the Santa Anita lawn.  We’ll prefer Wanstead Gardens on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Secret Command; 5-Market Notes; 8-Mr. Itkins; 10-Devil Rising

This is a wide open restricted (nw-3) claiming sprint that requires a spread; we’ll use four but we suggest you include as many as you can afford to.  #10 Devil Rising has enough zip to get over from his extreme outside draw and make or press the pace; the Hollendorfer-trained gelding switches to Baze and probably beats this field with a repeat of his race before last.  #3 Secret Command has run well over this track in the past and should be a strong late threat; he’s reunited with Desormeaux, who won on him during the Del Mar meeting.  #5 Market Notes is another with a deep-closing style that could be dangerous; he, too, has a strong look with a repeat of his nice win two runs back.  #8 Mr. Itkins continues to look sharp in the a.m. for Mulhall and both of his career wins have come over this surface.