OCTOBER 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Del Mar - $18 investment

1st race: 2, 5

2nd race: 1, 4, 6

3rd race: 5

4th race: 2, 3

5th race: 2, 3, 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Player’s Charm; 5-Doyouknowsomething

The Autumn Del Mar meeting begins with a modest card, including an opener with just five runners.  #5 Doyouknowsomething returns to his claim level after being overmatched in his last pair and looks best by default, but certainly isn’t one to trust.  He has a few back numbers that fit in this league but at 9/5 on the morning he doesn’t offer much in the way of value.  #2 Player’s Charm is slower on figs than the favorite but has hit the board in 10 of 13 career starts and should be in the fray throughout.  This is a pass race for us – we’ve graded it a “C” – but rolling exotic players can consider using both or even buying the race.

SECOND RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Pico Chick; 4-Amare; 6-Swag Money

#1 Pico Chick missed by a head while more than three clear of the rest in a vastly improved performance in her second career start and if she can produce another forward move today she’ll be tough to beat, rail and all.  #4 Amare exits the same race as Pico Chick (she pressed the pace, then faded, and finished more than five lengths behind ‘Chick) but today adds blinkers so she may improve if only due to the equipment change.  #6 Swag Money has worked okay, nothing special but okay, and the barn doesn’t win often with first time starters, but we’ll include her as a “stranger danger” play in a race in which the two top picks have serious stamina concerns.  This is another “C” rated race that we have no plans to play.

THIRD RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 5-Follow Me Crev

#5 Follow Me Crev is the 7/5 morning line choice in this starter’s allowance turf event and really should beat this field following a narrow defeat against a similar group in a productive race at Santa Anita earlier this month.  The Cerin-trained gelding ran well over this course during the summer meeting, switches to Nakatani, holds a distinct edge on speed figures, and rates strong consideration as a rolling exotic single, though offering no value in the straight pool. 

FOURTH RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Newfound Gold; 3-Karma King

#2 Newfound Gold has won five of his last six starts but was a voided claim due to unsoundness in his most recent win over this track in August.  He’s worked well since for Hess, retains Perez, and with a record that shows 14 wins from 47 starts he’ll probably find a way to continue to tough it out, issues and all.  However, he’s at 8/5 on the morning line and likely will go a bit lower, so there’s not much we can do with him.  #3 Karma King is a perfect three-for-three at Del Mar; he’s nowhere near as fast as ‘Gold on speed figures but if that one fails to fire he’ll be there to take advantage.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while recognizing that if ‘Gold has one more good one left he certainly should beat this field.

FIFTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Lovenseek; 3-Highway Boss; 6-John’s Success

This is a fairly competitive $50,000 claiming turf event restricted to 3-year-olds, with #2 Lovenseek appearing well-spotted for a repeat score after winning a solid starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita earlier this month.  Clearly most effective on the lead, the Miller-trained gelding lands a good inside draw and should be able to secure his kind of trip.  #3 Highway Boss comes off a nice win in an off-the-turfer at Santa Anita but his grass form – he’s failed to hit the board in the four starts – is highly suspect.  We’ll toss him in the nonetheless as he’s a dangerous closer with a winning spirit.  #6 John’s Success, in his second start off a long layoff, finished fourth in the aforementioned off-the-grass race won by Highway Boss and should benefit considerably with that race behind him and the return to his favorite surface.  O’Neill has excellent stats with second-off-layoff runners and Nakatani stays aboard, so look for a major effort from this lightly-raced son of Colonel John.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics while giving a very slight edge on top to Lovenseek.

SIXTH RACE (3:11 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 7-Pacific Heat; 10-Patriotic Diamond; 14-Just Google Me

#10 Patriotic Diamond won the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar as a maiden in just her second career start and has trained well since, so we’re expecting another forward move from this promising juvenile daughter of Hat Trick.  She has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, retains Bejarano, and is the one to beat once again.  #14 Just Google Me, an excellent runner-up to Patriotic Diamond in the Generous Portion, franked the form by coming back to win the Barretts Debutante by more than nine lengths at Los Alamitos last month.  She’s another that should thoroughly enjoy this seven furlong distance and her workouts in recent weeks at San Luis Rey Downs have been superb.  From the extreme outside post Maldonado can settle early and then move when he wants to.  #7 Pacific Heat didn’t have a whole lot behind her in her 13 lengths-plus maiden win at Los Alamitos but her speed figure was strong and she’s a viable threat to take this class hike in stride.  We’ll find out how good she is today.  Patriotic Diamond deserves top billing but this is a stronger than par race for state-bred two-year-old fillies and all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

SEVENTH RACE (3:42 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Salsita; 10-Tiz a Kiss

This entry-level middle distance turf event for fillies and mares appears fairly wide open; we’ll double the race but there are several in here with form that could be good enough.  #2 Salsita won over this course and distance during the summer meeting and was very respectable fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Swingtime Stakes at Santa Anita in her most recent start.  She’s facing a softer group today, lands a good inside post, and should draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving position.  Blanc should have her along in time.  #10 Tiz a Kiss is drawn much farther out than we’d prefer but she gets blinkers and Bejarano and could be dangerous from off the pace with one of her better efforts.  We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two with preference on top to Salsita.

EIGHTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Dirt in Your Face; 5-Alltheleavesrbrown

This is a very weak race for the level and anything goes.  Use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play.  #5 Alltheleavesrbrown appears most effective when held up early and allowed to produce a late run and given that kind of ride today could be capable of wearing down the speed.  The switch to Bejarano is a major factor and is the main reason we’re putting him on top.  #3 Dirt in Your Face ran well on the front end two races back over this track and if can shake loose early he should take this group a long way.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.