OCTOBER 18, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $16 investment

1st race: 1, 2

2nd race: 2, 5

3rd race: 5, 6

4th race: 1, 3

5th race: 1, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Kenjisstorm; 2-Blue Anchor

#2 Blue Anchor earned a strong number breaking his maiden last time out but speed figures earned at Los Alamitos don’t always translate and he certainly doesn’t offer any value here at 7/5 on the morning line.  The son of Songandaprayer lands Bejarano and catches a weak field of starter’s allowance foes so he could win right back by default.  #1 Kenjisstorm missed in a photo in a similar event here last month and he did earn a figure when breaking his maiden on this track last spring that would be good enough to beat this field.  But he’ll be a short price, too. We’ll stay away from this race but rolling exotic players may find the need to include both.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Street Vision; 5-Toews On Ice

The second race has just five runners and two will receive most of the play.  #5 Toews On Ice is a progressive colt that earned a Beyer speed figure 31 points better than his previous career top when winning the Barretts Juvenile impressively last month.  However, as stated above, numbers from Los Alamitos can’t always be trusted.  The Baffert-trained continues to train well, and from his outside post he can draft into an ideal pace stalking spot, so he could go lower than his morning line of 8/5.  #2 Street Vision looked good graduating in fast time here opening weekend in just his second career start and is the one to fear most in a race that doesn’t offer any real wagering value.  We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play and leave it at that.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-The Mad Hungarian; 6-Noble Kent

#5 The Mad Hungarian beat a bottom-rung field here earlier this month for these same low profile connections and takes a logical one-level jump in class while seeking his sixth victory from 12 career starts over this main track.  In a soft race for the level, there’s really no reason he can’t win again.  #6 Noble Kent, first off the claim for Miyadi, finished a well-beaten fourth behind The Mad Hungarian in that Oct. 2 race but has a right to step forward today for a barn that has superior starts with the first-off-the-claim angle.  The veteran gelding also is removing blinkers and switching to Bejarano.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Tizcano; 3-Ferocious

The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race and big ticket players likely will go deep in this grass grab bag down the hill for second level allowance sprinters.  We’ll try to get by using just two.  #1 Tizcano returns to turf and is re-equipped with blinkers; we’re expecting the Miller-trained gelding to return to his best form, rail post and all.  Both of his turf sprints at Del Mar chart very well here and we’re expecting the son of Tiznow to draft into a good pace-stalking, ground-saving spot.  There’s some value here at or near his 6-1 morning line.  #3 Ferocious didn’t run badly in his turf debut last month at Del Mar and the lightly-raced son of Tale of the Cat is a solid fit on speed figures.  He has the style to enjoy this course, retains Baze, and has room for some upside that many of these don’t have. 

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Kronwall; 4-Run the Show

This bottom-rung maiden claimer is treacherous and may be another that requires a spread.  #4 Run the Show has been away for two years but hopefully comes back better he left and could easily do so for Cassidy.  He’s a gelding now and the works at Galway Downs, assuming you can trust the times, should have him fit and ready for a big effort in the softest of spots.  The Street Boss gelding once was fairly well-regarded and his form in straight maiden races as two-year-old wasn’t that bad.  #1 Kronwall, a second-time starter from the O’Neill barn, was far back in his debut at Los Alamitos in straight maiden company but he continues to work well and probably deserves another chance.  Preference goes to Run the Show but, really, anything can happen here.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-C. C. Zipp; 3-Adios Princess; 8-Sudden Fame

#2 C. C. Zipp adds blinkers today and should be set to earn her diploma in her fifth career start.  The Hollendorfer-trained juvenile has speed figures that are steadily rising and she doesn’t really have a whole lot to beat.  #8 Sudden Fame, finished more than eight lengths behind ‘Zipp as the favorite in her debut in that Sept. 26 race that she probably needed; we’re expecting she’ll be more competitive today with Stevens riding her back.  #3 Adios Princess is a first-timer from the Puype barn listed at 12-1 on the morning line.  She’s trained fairly well and is probably better than that, so at a price she’s worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Silver Torch; 7-Dynamite Ride

This restricted (nw-2) one mile turf claimer is yet another difficult affair that may require a rather significant spread for big ticket players.  #3 Silver Torch adds blinkers for the first time and exits a series of tougher starter’s allowance races, so the Hess-trained gelding looks like a solid fit at this level and has a prior win over the course.  He’s reunited with Desormeaux, who should have this gelding doing his best work in the final furlong.  #7 Dynamite Ride is winless in five prior starts over the Santa Anita lawn but he’s a fit on figures and should draft into a good second flight/stalking spot.  He’s certainly not one to trust but he’s good enough with his effort to win.  These are the two we’ll prefer but best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Five Palms; 4-Rocket Heat

#3 Five Palms has trained like he’s fit and ready for Baffert and if he comes back as well as he left the son of Unbridled’s Song will be tough to deny, though we’re wondering if this five furlong distance might be a tad sharp for him.  He’s certainly shown the ability to fire fresh and could easily out class this field, though we can’t quite make him a single.  #4 Rocket Heat may be a five furlong specialist and with two wins and two seconds in five starts over the Santa Anita main track he clearly qualifies as a horse-for-course.  The Belvoir-trained gelding will take them as far as he can on the front end.

NINTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Margaret Reay; 9-Perdona; 10-Rue de Cry

The finale is a messy maiden turf router for fillies and mares; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  #9 Perdona seems to be improving for Eurton, draws a much better post today and should be forwardly placed throughout, free of trouble.  She has advancing speed figures and a hot jockey-trainer combo to rate top billing.  #10 Rue to Cry has been away since December but when last seen ran well over this course and distance to be a closing second, and if she comes back in similar form today she’ll be a major player.  The works look solid for Gaines, whose record with layoff runners is pretty solid.  #6 Margaret Reay will race with blinkers for the first time and a repeat of her race before last puts her in the picture, so we’ll toss her in as well.