OCTOBER 31, 2015 – KEENELAND (BC)

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S 50-CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Keeneland - $216 investment

1st race: 1, 2, 8

2nd race: 3, 4, 7

3rd race: 2, 9, 10

4th race: 1, 3, 5, 12

5th race: 3, 7, 8, 14

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (11:00 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hebbronville; 2-Lewys Vaporizer; 8-Bayerd

We’ll go to school during the first few races of the program to see if there’s any apparent bias (track and/or speed) that might affect our strategy in the latter races.  In the opener, #2 Lewys Vaporizer earned a giant number in dismantling a softer field at Parx last month and looks on paper to be the best of the speed types.  If he can shake loose early he may never look back.  #1 Hebbronville could be a strong late factor if he can negotiate a good trip from the rail.  He was a closing fourth from far back with a very wide trip in the Gallant Bob S.-G3 in his last start, although that effort was race-shape aided.  He should be a bit closer to the pace today.  #8 Bayerd also has the capability of making up ground late; he was nosed out by Hebbronville two races back and then finished a close third while a length and one-half in front of that same colt in the Gallant Bob.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Lewys Vaporizer on top.

SECOND RACE (11:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Noholdingback Bear; 4-Sheikh of Sheiks; 7-Moment Is Right

We’re not sure what was behind him in his visually impressive debut maiden win over the all-weather surface at Woodbine, but #3 Noholdingback Bear sure seems better than his listed 15-1 morning line.  The son of Put it Back is plenty quick and came home in 12 flat in that race while earning a Beyer figure that tops anything in this field.  No, we’re not likely to get 15-1, but even at half that price he has to be used.  #4 Sheikh of Sheiks won his debut sprinting at Saratoga in clever style with a nice figure but then failed to stay in the mud when fading on the front end in the two-turn Breeders’ Futurity.  He’s catching an easier group today while backing up in trip, and a repeat of first outing puts him right there.  Ward has a second runner in the field, #7 Moment Is Right, a filly facing the boys.  She’s blazingly quick leaving the gate and figures to be in front today for at least a while; her work tab is light for her first start since July but with Rosario taking the call you have to think she’s well-meant.  These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while being especially intrigued by Noholdingback Bear.

THIRD RACE (12:06 ET) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Tap to It; 9-Rachel’s Valentina; 10-Songbird

#10 Songbird is an exceptional filly – she’s undefeated in three starts, the numbers are strong, and the form has held up – but at 7/5 on the morning and from an extreme outside post she doesn’t offer a whole lot of value.  Of course, she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play, but for straight wagering purposes, we’ll look elsewhere, specifically at #2 Tap to It, listed at 8-1 on the morning line.  Arguably the most impressive debut maiden juvenile filly sprint winner at Saratoga, the daughter of Tapit lost little in defeat when wheeled back in just 20 days to finish a troubled runner-up to the equally well-regarded Rachel’s Valentina in the Spinaway S.-G1.  Freshened since the first week of September and training in spectacular style (note the 1:23 4/5 seconds breezing work at Belmont Park Oct. 7), the Ralph Nicks-trained filly seems certain to improve over a route of ground and should have every chance to do so from her favorable inside post position two.  #9 Rachel’s Valentina also should step forward stretching out; Rachel Alexandra’s daughter has done everything right so far and figures to settle in in the second flight and then produce her run.  Surprisingly, Todd Pletcher has never won this race but this daughter of Bernardini looks very much like the Real McCoy.  We’ll be very surprised if the race doesn’t come down to these three, with Tap to It appearing to be the best gamble.

FOURTH RACE (12:45 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Pure Sensation; 3-Undrafted; 5-Lady Shipman; 12-Ready for Rye

This is the ultimate grass grab bag; a full field of 14 sprinting five and one-half furlongs over what is expected to be a good-to-yielding turf course.  The best wagering advice is to use as many as you can afford to; we’ll go four deep and hope to get lucky.  #12 Ready for Rye has won his last three starts and the improving sophomore gelding is perfect (2-for-2) on turf, though his most recent victory – a very impressive nearly five length romp vs. 3-year-olds in the listed Allied Forces S. – came in an off-the-turfer in the mud at Belmont Park.  This will be his first start in more than six weeks and the work tab is noticeably light, but the son of City Zip earned his career best number when winning the Swale S.-G2 earlier this year off a two month vacation so he clearly can fire a big shot fresh.  Drawn outside the other speed types, ‘Rye should effortlessly draft into an ideal pace-prompting spot outside and be ready to launch his bid when straightened for home.  Espinoza takes over for Castellano (who opts for the off-form defending champion #2 Bobby’s Kitten) and at 10-1 on the morning line the Tom Albertrani-trained gelding offers an excellent wagering opportunity. #5 Lady Shipman had been unbeaten in seven career starts in turf sprints at less than six furlongs prior to being nailed right on the money earlier this month in a non-graded stakes for fillies and mares.  She was below her best that day for whatever reason, and it remains to be seen if she can regain her superior summer form.  With a lifetime record of eight wins from 11 starts, the Kathleen O’Connell-trained daughter of Midshipman deserves inclusion.  Royal Ascot winner #3 Undrafted may be the most dangerous of the closing types, but will need some luck to negotiate a good trip in a huge field.  His one prior start over the local lawn resulted in an uninspiring third place effort in the Shakerstown S.-G3 earlier this year, and the Ward-trained gelding is winless in his five most recent North American outings.  However, his recent workouts indicate he might be coming back to his best, so we’ll find room on our ticket for the genuine and durable son of Purim.  Finally, if you can afford to, consider tossing in #1 Pure Sensation.  Unbeaten at this abbreviated sprint distance and a winner of three of four career starts on turf, the tough-as-nails gelding won the Turf Monster S.-G3 at Parx last time out while earning a career top number, and not much more will be needed today to at least land him in the frame.  He’s shown the ability to win on the lead or from a stalking spot, so Velasquez can play by it by ear.

FIFTH RACE (1:25 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Taris; 7-Wavell Avenue; 8-Stonetastic; 14-Cavorting

This race is so deep and contentious, one would hate to settle on the favorite, especially in light of the stats that tell us 3-year-old fillies are zero-for-24 in this race since it was inaugurated in 2007.  However, #14 Cavorting packs a powerful late kick, is improving with every outing, and has the perfect style for this seven furlong distance in a field that has plenty of speed to set things up for a closer.  With two triple-digit Beyer numbers in her last three races, she certainly is fast enough on pure figures to win, and with just seven races behind her (with five wins) the daughter of Bernardini should have upside that most of the others don’t.  Extreme outside post and all, we’ll put her on top but spread the race using other contenders.  #3 Taris is better than her morning line of 12-1 gives her credit for; her career top Beyer number (110) was achieved over this strip last year and we believe she was a short horse when third in the L.A. Woman at Santa Anita at odds-on earlier this month.  #8 Stonetastic may be the best of the speed types and tuned up for this race with a nearly 16 length romp over an out-classed field at Parx while earning a career top number; the main concern, of course, is the seven furlong trip which in the past has been a tad out of her range.  #7 Wavell Avenue is starting to get very good for Pletcher and is another attractive price play; she’s fresh from a career-top triple-digit Beyer figure effort when second in the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 and gets an extra half-furlong to work with today. At 12-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Harlington is well-worth using, at least as a saver.

SIXTH RACE (2:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Legatissimo; 8-Dacita

European invader #3 Legatissimo is two nose defeats removed from a six-race winning streak against top class opposition, and if she brings her “A” game to Kentucky she’ll beat this field.  The winner of back-to-back Group-1 events by daylight in her last two appearances, the daughter of Danehill Dancer will race with Lasix for the first time, can handle any type of surface or distance, and can win from close up or from well off the pace.  Against a stellar field of world class fillies and mares, her low price (she’s 8/5 on the morning line) won’t offer much wagering value, but the Wachman-trained filly looks hard to get past.  #8 Dacita, top-class in Chile before being sent to the States, won her U.S. debut over the terrific Tepin (see BC Mile) at Saratoga with a furious late kick and seems like the best of the locals.  As dominant as Legatissimo appears on paper, Dacita (at 8-1 on the morning line) has to be included somewhere as at least a saver.

SEVENTH RACE (2:50 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Runhappy; 7-Holy Boss; 13-Private Zone

#13 Private Zone (5/2) and #5 Runhappy (3-1) are the two morning line favorites and we’ll certainly use them, but #7 Holy Boss (15-1) represents excellent long shot value so we’ll prefer him on top.  ‘Boss is extremely capable as a pace-forcing sprinter but he can rally from mid-pack as well and if a pace meltdown materializes, this son of Street Boss could be poised to inflict major damage in the final furlong.  A winner of half of his 10 career starts (with two of the defeats coming over a sloppy track that he clearly doesn’t handle), the 3-year-old colt seems capable of pulling off an upset.  Runhappy was off slowly, rushed up, took all the heat, then came away to a very impressive victory in the Phoenix S.-G3 over a wet track earlier this month, and that smart score came on the heels of his runaway win in the King’s Bishop S.-G1, 113 Beyer) at Saratoga.  If he breaks cleanly today, there may be no catching him.  Private Zone is thoroughly genuine and consistent; however, he’s winless in five races in which the opening quarter is faster than 22 seconds (and it will be today).  Drawn far outside, the Macho Uno gelding will most likely settle into a stalking position and it remains to be seen if he can win a race like this with that type of trip.  But as genuine and consistent as he is, we wouldn’t put it past him.

EIGHTH RACE (3:30 ET) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Make Believe; 7-Tepin; 9-Esoterique; 11-Karakontie

The European contingent is quite strong and the Americans could be in trouble, save for #7 Tepin, who earned a giant figure when winning the First Lady S.-G1 over this course and distance earlier this month.  The Casse-trained filly has developed into the premiere female turf runner in the States but will need to exceed her best to continue her winning form.  She has excellent tactical speed and should enjoy a trouble free-trip; we’re expecting her to at least hit the board.  However, the Europeans offer a whole new challenge.  #9 Esoterique has won back-to-back Group-1 events at Deauville and Newmarket, respectively, and anything close to either one of those performances likely will land her in the winner’s circle.  You can expect the Fabre-trained mare to be reserved well off the pace and then storm home.  Fabre’s other starter is a major player as well.  #3 Make Believe captured the Prix de la Foret-G1 at Longchamp off a 10 week layoff and arrives in Kentucky fresh and improving.  He has plenty of tactical speed and should be close up throughout.  Defending BC Mile champion #11 Karakontie won last year from an extreme outside post at 30-1, and the victory was no fluke.  He’s only had two outings in 2015 but the Jonathan Pease-trained colt has progressing form and seems set for another forward move.  At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s too big of a number to ignore.

NINTH RACE (4:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Greenpointcrusader; 7-Brody’s Cause; 9-Exaggerator

#3 Greenpointcrusader was highly impressive winning the Champagne S.-G1, but the victory came over a sloppy surface that may (or may not) have moved him up.  If he can reproduce that form on a fast surface – and since his maiden came on dry dirt we’re assuming he can – then the son of Bernardini should have every chance to extend his winning streak to three.  He’s fast on numbers, bred to handle two turns, and sports a bullet half mile workout over this track just a few days ago.  #7 Brody’s Cause already has displayed his affection for the Keeneland main track, having won the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 by rallying from off the pace into the teeth of moderate splits to earn a legitimate number.  The Romans-trained son of Giant’s Causeway has produced a massive forward move in each of his last two starts and if he continues that pattern today, he’ll be very hard to contain.  #9 Exaggerator was blown away by the powerful late kick of Brody’s Cause last time out but we’re thinking he might not have been 100% fit.  The Desormeaux-trained colt has worked very impressively since that race and seems sure to put his best stuff on display today.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics; a win by any would come as no surprise.

TENTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: A

Single: 1-Golden Horn

#1 Golden Horn will be attempting to become the first horse ever to win both the Prix de l’arc de Triomphe-G1 and the Breeders’ Cup and he’ll be odds-on to do it.  A winner of seven of eight career starts, he was superb earlier this month in victory in Paris over a world class field, doing so despite a poor draw, a wide trip, and without ever getting cover.  We doubt he’s over the top – trainer John Gosden wouldn’t have brought him if he thought that there was even a remote chance that he was – and from the rail post Frankie Dettori can save ground throughout, bide his time, and then cut loose when ready.  We’re expecting the exacta to be completed by either #9 Found or #10 The Pizza Man – both are consistent and reliable – but for the purposes of rolling exotic play Golden Horn should be a slam dunk single.

ELEVENTH RACE (5:35 ET) – GRADE: A-

Single: 4-American Pharoah

There is nothing in here than can bother #4 American Pharoah early, and when the Triple Crown winner finds a field he can dominate on the front end without pressure he’s all but unbeatable.  Of course, he doesn’t need the lead to win but he’ll be happy to take it if you hand it to him.  The Bob Baffert-trained colt required a bit of a breather after being below his best when upset in the Travers, but now that he’s had a couple of months off to regain his form, he’s been working lights out while giving every indication that the last race of his career will be his best.  This is a terrific field even without #10 Beholder, who had to be withdrawn a couple of days go, but given the projected race-shape, American Pharoah shouldn’t miss as a very short priced favorite.

TWELTH RACE (6:15 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Desert Valley; 6-Clothes Fall Off; 7-Coco’s Wildcat; 8-Dr. Fager’s Gal

The nightcap is a wide-open sprint stakes race for 3-year-old fillies that requires a spread; we’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics while preferring #6 Cloths Fall Off on top.  Fresh from a solid win against a lesser field at Belmont Park earlier this month, the lightly-raced daughter of Daaher looks quite capable of producing another forward move and appears the most dangerous of the closing types.  #8 Dr. Fager’s Gal comes off a solid score at Los Alamitos, has competitive numbers, and should be forwardly placed throughout.  #5 Desert Valley exits a much tougher race, also is a fit on figures, and seems better than her 10-1 morning line gives her credit for, although her record over the Keeneland main track (winless in three starts with one third) isn’t inspiring.  #7 Coco’s Wildcat just defeated a lesser field on turf but she can act on dirt as well and could be heard from late if she gets any help up front.