OCTOBER 25, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $18 investment

1st race: 1, 2, 6

2nd race: 2, 4

3rd race: 3, 5

4th race: 3

5th race: 5, 6, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Tribal Roar; 2-Sugar Buzz; 6-Courageous Dave

The closing day Sunday program begins with a starter’s allowance main track miler for juveniles that came up fairly contentious.  #2 Sugar Buzz is fresh from a decent maiden claiming win and may prove to be a timely claim by Hendricks.  The son of Include strikes us as a progressive sort and already has proven he can get the trip.  #1 Tribal Roar stretches out for the first time and likely will be sent from the rail; he earned a speed figure two races back that makes him a fit at this level.  #6 Courageous Dave has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern we like and exits a hot dash here two weeks ago.  On pedigree he should enjoy the added trip so he’s the likely choice and one to beat.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Sugar Buzz on top.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Nine Point Nine; 4-Tiz Pleasant

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the second race.  #2 Nine Point Nine, first off the claim for Cerin, moves up in class but is a route-to-sprint play and switches to Nakatani, so the daughter of Tribal Rule seems likely to produce a forward move in a below par race for the level.  Her numbers are steadily rising, so at 7/2 on the morning line she deserves top billing.  #4 Tiz Pleasant, a beaten choice in a similar spot here earlier this month, retains Bejarano, is a fit on figures, and should get plenty of backing again.  In the money in three of her four career starts, the daughter of Southern Image should be part of the pace throughout.  We’ll try to get by using just these two.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Smack Talk; 5-Lambo Luxx

The third race is a $40,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds and should be a winning spot for #3 Smack Talk.  Once well-regarded after breaking his maiden at first asking as a two-year-old, the Belvoir-trained gelding shows up for a tag for the first time and has back numbers that are good enough to win at this level.  He’s also returning to the main track while retaining Talamo and continues to impress in the morning.  Today should be his day.  #5 Lambo Luxx comes of a game starter’s allowance win here last month and shows a healthy work pattern since; the Carava-trained gelding has the kind of early zip that should have him on or near the lead throughout.  We’ll give Smack Talk the edge but use both in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 3-Bella Anatola

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies meet over the extended sprint distance of seven furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6 sequence; with the scratching of one of our main contenders, #4 Blessherheart, we’re left with a reluctant single, #3 Bella Anatola.  She’s a first-time starter from the Baffert barn with a decent series of workouts that should have her fit and ready in a race in which the known element doesn't inspire.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Spirit of Xian; 6-Baruta; 8-Off the Road

Trainer Richard Mandella has three strong contenders in the fifth race, the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting down the hill.  Why not use all three?  #8 Off the Road is an intriguing Brazilian invader with excellent South American form and an impressive local work tab; she looks like a live item with Smith taking the call so let’s put her slightly on top.  #6 Baruta has hit the board in six of seven career starts over this turf course and will appreciate this return to grass.  Bejarano takes the mount and more than likely will have her within striking range throughout.  #5 Spirit of Xian, a solid runner-up over this course and distance against a slightly lesser field last month, retains Talamo.  She really won’t have to improve all that much to win. 

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: C+

Single: 3-Planet Sunshine

The sixth race is an inscrutable bottom-rung claiming miler that requires a spread; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  Two of our main contenders are late scratches, #4 Cant Do the Danse and #6 Dekko, which leaves us only with #3 Planet Sunshine. The West-trained gelding is re-equipped with blinkers, drops for the money run and looks the most dangerous of the closing types.  

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 7-Got Even; 9-Dream Police; 11-Chief of Staff

The seventh race is yet another difficult affair with several possibilities.  #11 Chief of Staff must overcome an extreme outside draw, but the Hollendorfer-trained colt is genuine and consistent and a strong fit on figures.  Though he was beaten at even money when third in a photo in his most recent start earlier this month, he retains Bejarano and should be given a big chance to make amends.  #9 Dream Police has a good stalking style and room for further improvement for hot trainer Baltas, so we’ll including him at 9/2 on the morning line.  #7 Got Even always is dangerous on the lead when not pressured and could be the controlling speed again.  ‘Staff gets the edge but we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Wildcat Sailor; 7-Global Magician; 11-Pay the Fine

The eighth race is yet another raffle; this one a Hillside turf affair for first-level allowance sprinters.  #7 Global Magician, second in his last pair, shortens up for Miller and should enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip.  He may be as good as any but in a tough race he’s only one of several that appear capable of winning.  #4 Wildcat Sailor tries turf for the first time and there’s no reason he won’t handle it. The Mulhall-trained gelding came off a layoff to finish a decent third sprinting in a $50,000 claimer on the main track earlier this month and has a right to step forward today while being protected in an allowance race, a positive sign.  Nakatani stays aboard.  #11 Pay the Fine has won over this course in the past, lands the good outside draw, and earned a career top speed figure when second in a similar spot over the Del Mar main track in late August.  He’s looked sharp in the morning since and seems primed for another major effort for O’Neill.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while giving Global Magician a very slight edge on top.

NINTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Travel Bound; 6-Lucky Reality; 8-Cass in Stone

The nightcap is a bottom-rung extended sprint for older maidens and actually looks like a stronger than par race for the level.  #8 Cass in Stone, first off the claim for O’Neill, has rising speed figures and the always-dangerous blinkers off angle while switching to Bejarano, so we’re expecting a major forward move today from the son of Quality Road.  We’ll put him on top but also use #5 Travel Bound and #6 Lucky Reality in our rolling exotics.  The former adds the hood for the first time and is dropping dramatically in class, so improvement is likely, while the latter also is tackling much softer foes today in his first start since mid-August and has looked pretty good in morning in recent workouts for Blacker.