OCTOBER 17, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $8 investment

1st race: 5, 7

2nd race: 4

3rd race: 1, 6

4th race: 5, 7

5th race: 1, 5

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Empress Rules; 7-Parasail

#7 Parasail ran much better than the line shows in her debut and seems highly-likely to improve considerably in her second career start.  The daughter of Surf Cat broke poorly, rushed up extremely wide to move within range and kept on gamely to finish a distant third in a productive sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares.  She lands the cozy outside post, retains Baze, and has worked well from the gate since that late August affair at Del Mar, so if she leaves cleanly today she will be hard to beat.  If you can get close to her 3-1 morning line, take it.  #5 Empress Rules is a first-timer by the speed sire Tribal Rule making her debut for Gary Mandell and the works indicate she’s worth including in rolling exotic play, though preference on top goes to Parasail.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Jonny’s Choice

#4 Jonny’s Choice returns to the $20,000 level after facing tougher foes in his last three starts, and the class drop should make the winning difference.  The Glatt-trained gelding likes this main track, is reunited with his favorite rider Talamo, and should be prominent throughout in a sprint that really doesn’t have a whole lot of intense speed in it.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Sutton’s Smile; 6-Shakti

This isn’t a strong field of maiden juvenile fillies over a mile on turf, so #1 Sutton’s Smile appears to have found a good spot to make amends for her failure at 3/5 in a downhill turf sprint earlier this month.  She stretches out to what seems to be her preferred trip, retains Bejarano, and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail.  Despite her recent defeat her speed figures continue to improve with each outing and we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t produce another forward move today.  #6 Shakti tries turf and blinkers for the first time, so the Miller-trained filly is another likely to show improvement.  Talamo stays aboard and should have her a good stalking spot throughout.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press a bit with Sutton’s Smile on top.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-May B; 7-The Cleaners

#7 The Cleaners drops sharply to the bottom in his second-off-the-claim for Sherman so there’s a major condition concern, but if the City Zip gelding has one good one left he’ll be tough to beat in this league.  With four wins and two seconds in seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, he’s clearly a horse-for-course.  #5 May B crushed restricted (nw-2) $8,000 claimers at Los Alamitos recently and earned a solid figure; if can duplicate that performance today he’ll be a major player right back.  The Werblin gelding is another with a good record over Santa Anita strip and has worked well since that mid-September win.  We’ll try to get by using only these two but when you’re dealing with $8,000 claimers it’s difficult to have much confidence.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Formally Wild; 5-Swiss Cheese

#1 Formally Wild adds blinkers for the first time and if the Hollendorfer-trained gelding can negotiate a trouble-free trip from the rail he’ll be the one to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint.  The son of Offlee Wild has burned money as the favorite in each of his last two starts but may stick better today while shortening to six furlongs.  #5 Swiss Cheese turned in a clunker when a well-beaten fourth as the choice in a starter’s allowance race last month; the Miyadi-trained gelding drops for the money run today after a nice recent workout and if he runs back to either one of his previous two starts he’ll be right there.  We’ll give a slight edge on top to Formally Wild and use both in our rolling exotics, but otherwise not get too involved.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Rockin Robin; 6-Eckersley; 7-The Gomper

We’re going to triple this first-level allowance mile turf event while expecting the three-year-olds to handle their older rivals.  Comebacking #6 Eckersley has trained like he’s fit and ready at San Luis Rey Downs for Hansen and this lightly-raced son of Congrats sports a previous win over this course and distance last winter (doing so from the extreme outside 12-post position).  Talamo knows him well and should have him within striking range every step of the way.  #3 Rockin Robin won a nice $40,000 claiming affair against his own age group in late August at Del Mar, has trained well since, and should continue his improving pattern today.  Bejarano stays aboard.  #7 The Gomper was disappointing in his last outing at Del Mar when pressing the pace; he’s probably most effective when held up and allowed to produce a late kick and Smith likely will give him that ride.  The son of Sky Mesa ran quite well under these conditions in June and appears capable of returning to his best form today.  Eckersley gets top billing but all three are “must uses” in the exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Caminetto; 5-Skelton Pass; 8-Secret Ovation

#5 Skelton Pass was highly impressive breaking his maiden with a stakes-quality speed figure at Del Mar two runs back but flopped badly under these conditions over this main track when odds-on last month, winding up a non-threatening, distant second with a Beyer number 20 points lower than what he had earned in victory.  The Sadler-trained gelding turned in a nice, easy half mile workout the other day to indicate he’s doing well, so he’s probably worth giving another chance to, but not as a single.  #4 Caminetto drops into a claimer for the first time while returning to his favorite main track (two wins, two seconds in four starts) and the Baffert-trained gelding seemed to perk up a few days ago in a sharp workout while in company with Dortmund.  He’s back with Garcia, who has won with him in the past, so the veteran son of Stormy Atlantic must be regarded as a major player at 4-1 on the morning line.  #8 Secret Ovation is living high these days; the Agarie-trained son of Congrats earned a triple-digit Beyer figure (a career high) in a hot win at Los Alamitos last month and looks very much like the quickest of the quick.  First or second in half of his 10 career starts over the dirt track at Santa Anita, the gelding may offer some value in the straight pool at or near his 5-1 morning line.  In a very tough race, all three should be used in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Dreamologist; 7-Paulina’s Love; 9-Singing Kitty

#3 Dreamologist is moving up from straight maiden to graded stakes competition; normally we would dismiss her as being overmatched but this is a Richard Mandella-trained filly we’re talking about so she deserves a closer look.  In a race that she most likely inherit the role as the controlling speed, the daughter of Tapit shortens to a mile and switches to Smith while continuing to be very impressive in the morning.  This will be just her third career start so her ceiling is unknown, but she gives every indication that can be this good, if not now, then soon.  #7 Paulina’s Love has the blinkers-off angle we like so much and the Baltas-trained filly should settle into a good pace-stalking spot.  A two-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, she is very solid in the speed figure department and really won’t have to improve much to win.  #9 Singing Kitty is genuine and versatile and a course specialist stretching out again after a sharp score down the hill in the Unzip Me Stakes last month.  She earned a career top speed figure in that win and retains Bejarano.  We’re tempted to put Dreamologist on top but all three should be used in your rolling exotics.

NINTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Exactamente; 3-Mended; 7-Mint Julep Taffy

This looks like an unusually competitive maiden claiming sprint for 2-year-old fillies.  #7 Mint Julep Taffy shows up for a tag for the first time and seems certain to improve big time in this easier spot.  She has enough early speed to be on or near the lead with this group and if she can shake loose she could get very brave.  #4 Hero for Hire is a dangerous first time starter from the Aguirre barn; the daughter of Street Hero has done good work in the morning and seems properly spotted for a big try first crack out of the box.  #1 Exactamente is another first-time-for-a-tag play and should be a contender despite the rail.  She figures to be dangerous from off the pace under Desormeaux.  We’ll have a ticket or two extra with Mint Julep Taffy on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.