OCTOBER 2, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $18 investment

1st race: 6

2nd race: 2, 9

3rd race: 2, 4, 10

4th race: 1, 2, 9

5th race: 2, 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 6-Papaslilprincess

The opener doesn’t have a whole lot in it with #6 Papaslilprincess likely to go lower than her morning line of 7/5.  Drawn comfortably outside in her first off the claim for Machowsky, she switches to Bejarano, has won over this main track in the past, and is a perfect one-for-one at this extended seven furlong sprint distance.  She looks like a logical short-price, no-value rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Ballplayer; 9-Resistanceisfutile

#7 Ballplayer was given a bit of a run in his debut – he finished sixth in a similar bottom-rung maiden claimer at Del Mar and wasn’t knocked about in the final furlong – and should get much more serious today for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starting maidens.  This seven furlong distance should be perfect for his closing style, and with the switch to Espinoza this son of Monarchos could produce the last run in a decidedly weaker-than-par race for the level.  We like him on top but we’ll also include #9 Resistanceisfutile, a second-time starter and first-off-the-claim for Becerra.  The son of Ten Most Wanted broke slowly and produced a steady wide rally to finish okay in a better-than-looked debut, has trained decently for his new connections and will have clear sailing from his cozy outside post.

THIRD RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Follow Me Crev; 4-Lovenseek; 10-Silver Torch

This starter’s allowance event over a mile on turf looks fairly wide open and requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep while preferring #2 Follow Me Crev slightly on top.  A good third with a strong speed figure in a tougher first-level allowance event at Del Mar last time out, he removes blinkers, lands a good inside post and switches to Garcia.  The Quality Road gelding should settle into an ideal pace prompting spot and have every chance in the final furlong.  #4 Lovenseek, freshened since late August and with a bullet five furlong move at SLRD last week, retains Espinoza and should be on or near the lead throughout.  #10 Silver Torch takes the worst of the draws but could be the most dangerous of the closers.  He’s won on this course in the past and switches to Bejarano. 

FOURTH RACE (2:28 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Carlsbad Mountain; 2-Alpine Luck; 9-Shakahari

#1 Carlsbad Mountain exits a fast, highly-rated race at Del Mar in his first outing since April and should improve a ton today while dropping from $32,000 to $16,000 and returning to the main track that has produced both of his career victories.  His win two runs back earned a big figure and if he can leave cleanly from the rail, the Headley-trained gelding should be able to run back to his best today.  His morning line of 4-1 seems about right.  #2 Alpine Luck, claimed in his last three, is back in the Desormeaux barn and should return to his best form after a flat performance against a similar group in mid-August at Del Mar.  The Lucky J. H. gelding will be part of the pace and has back numbers that put him in the hunt.  Toss him in at 6-1 on the morning line.  #9 Shakahari, second in his last pair at this level including a solid recent effort up north, should have every chance from his outside draw to gain a favorable stalking spot.  The Indian Charlie gelding figures to at least hit the board.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Carlsbad Mountain on top.

FIFTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Dynamite Ride; 9-Global Magician

This starter’s allowance race is a split of the third race and looks equally challenging.  #2 Dynamite Ride, second in his last four while appearing to lack a winning punch, adds blinkers today so maybe he’ll break through.  The son of Candy Ride has enough tactical speed to gain a stalking spot from his nice inside draw and on pure speed figures he’s as good as anything in the field.  Maybe the switch to Quinonez will help.  #9 Global Magician removes blinkers for the first time in his career and while he has plenty of speed it’s possible they’ll try to rate him today from his outside post position.  The Miller-trained gelding is a tad suspect around two-turns but the hood-off angle is too enticing to ignore.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Global Magician a very slight edge on top.

SIXTH RACE (3:32 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-American Blend; 5-Congregationalist; 8-Noble Kent

#2 American Blend may have been best when second in a similar bottom-rung main track miler at Del Mar last time out and though beaten as the favorite probably deserves another chance.  All three of his career victories have been accomplished over this main track and the Sadler-trained gelding continues to look sharp in the a.m. while appearing ready for a major effort.  #5 Congregationalist drops to his lowest level ever and this committed front-runner appears to catch a very favorable pace scenario.  If he can make the running without pressure the Cerin-trained gelding could be hard to catch.  #8 Noble Kent, first off the claim for Mulhall, just finished third in the same race ‘Blend was second in and really won’t have to improve much to win.  The son of Ministers Wild Cat has shown an affection for the Santa Anita main track in the past.  Let’s go with American Blend on top but use all three in rolling exotic play. 

SEVENTH RACE (4:02 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Unusually Green; 2-Nahem; 6-King of Jazz

This 10-furlong first-level allowance event on grass could be decided by the pace of the race, which could be contested if #2 Nahem takes hold of the bit with the addition of blinkers.  If he’s able to settle and stalk, his chances improve, but that could allow #6 King of Jazz the easy, front-running trip that he so desires.  ‘Jazz has won on this course in the past and with only seven career starts probably has room for improvement.  The question is, does he really want to run this far?  As for Nahem, he’s a tough old pro with a prior win over the course and numbers that fit but he, too, is suspect at this distance.  Things could set up nicely for #1 Unusually Green, the most dangerous of the deep-closers.  Bejarano knows him well and stays aboard; the main concern is this gelding’s zero-for-six career mark over this turf course.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and hope that the fractions are fast enough to set it up for the late charge of our top pick, Unusually Green.

EIGHTH RACE (4:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Seeward Cottage; 2-Ponder Lea; 4-Kiana’s Dream

This is a really difficult nightcap for maiden $40,000 claiming fillies and mares, so we’ll go three deep and hope to land a bit of a price.  #2 Ponder Lea finished a fading fourth in her debut and Sadler is quickly giving up on the former $100,000 yearling filly by More than Ready; however, she earned a rather surprisingly good speed figure behind runaway winner Finest City and there’s nobody in here even remotely that fast to worry about.  A bullet gate work since her debut indicates she’s doing well and Gonzalez stays aboard, so we’ll put her on top.  #1 Seeward Cottage drops below her claim level while switching to Bejarano and looks like a live item for O’Neill.  The rail is no bargain but she’s plenty quick and could get brave if she can shake loose early.  #4 Kiana’s Dream flashed good zip vs. straight maidens in her debut before gradually giving way; she should be fitter and tougher today and combined with the class drop could outrun her odds at the very least.