OCTOBER 30, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Del Mar - $18 investment

1st race: 1, 5

2nd race: 7

3rd race: 2, 3, 5

4th race: 3, 8, 9

5th race: 3, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:45 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Classico; 5-Knight of Drama

High-priced maiden claiming juveniles meet in the opener; there are two main contenders but this is not a race we’re planning to get too involved in.  #5 Knight of Drama, in the money in his last three, is a first-time Lasix user with rising speed figures and a cozy outside post.  He’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower.  #1 Classico, a beaten 6/5 favorite in his debut when third in the same race Knight of Drama was second in, has a right to improve for O’Neill (strong stats with second-timers) and will be tough if he leaves cleanly from the rail.  Rolling exotic plays can use both; we’ll give Knight of Drama a very slight edge on top.

SECOND RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 7-Turn Your Eyes

#7 Turn Your Eyes doesn’t have much to beat in this straight maiden sprint for California-bred juveniles and should be a short price to graduate after a pair of in-the-money efforts in similar company.  His numbers are rising for Miyadi, he switches to Gonzalez, and he should be on or near the lead throughout from his comfortable outside post.  However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, there’s not much value to be found.

THIRD RACE (2:15 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Aiming Straight; 3-Hail Mary Play; 5-Sharp Holiday

This is a pass race for us; it’s a starter’s allowance sprint for juvenile fillies with three main contenders, none of which are trustworthy.  #2 Aiming Straight, in the money in her last three, should be on or near the lead throughout and seems as good as any, especially with the switch to Bejarano.  #5 Sharp Holiday, a weakening third in the same race Aiming Straight exits, broke her maiden over this course and distance during the summer meeting and if she can run back to that performance today she’ll be a major player.  #3 Hail Mary Play won at first asking earlier this month at Santa Anita while earning a competitive figure for D’Amato.  With only slight improvement, she can score right back.  Hail Mary Play gets top billing but not with any great conviction in a race we’ve rated a “C.”

FOURTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-No Comparison; 8-Sky Forever; 9-Rock N Bunny

This is a contentious affair, a five furlong turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares.  #3 No Comparison broke her maiden over this turf course and distance two runs back and then ran well down the hill at Santa Anita to be a strong runner-up after pressing the pace under pressure throughout.  She returns to five furlongs today and is strictly the one to beat.  #8 Sky Forever has run well over this course in the past and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  She’s run well under Bejarano in the past and with good racing luck will be heard from late.  #9 Rock N Bunny isn’t fast on speed figures but seems like a trier and was a willing runner-up at a big price vs. claiming foes on turf at Santa Anita three weeks back.  She can at least get a piece of it.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Warren’s Purrfect; 7-Chicago Angel

This race is a poor maiden claimer that we have no plans to participate in.  Rolling exotic player should include as many as they can afford to.  #3 Warren’s Purrfect is a 14-race maiden that has finished in the money in her last pair, so at least she’s getting closer.  She’ll be doing her best work late and seems as good as any.  #7 Chicago Angel stretches out again after a decent runner-up vs. similar in an extended sprint at Santa Anita a month ago.  She should be prominent throughout and may stick around a long time if she can make the running without pressure.  Somebody has to win; these two look as good as any.

SIXTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Another House; 6-Dylan Ward

#6 Dylan Ward is long overdue for a win and may have finally found a field he can handle.  A 10-race maiden with eight in-the-money finishes, the D’Amato-trained son of Artie Schiller returns to turf and a repeat of his strong third place effort over this course two races back should be good enough to beat this field.  The one to fear most is #1 Another House, a lightly-raced Candy Ride gelding who actually finished just ahead of Dylan Ward when they met here in August.  He lacks tactical speed and probably will need some luck along the way, but if he gets clear sailing the Proctor-trained gelding will be dangerous late.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two with Dylan Ward on top.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Smokey Image; 7-Family Code; 8-Mana Strike

Undefeated #2 Smokey Image tries to extend his streak to five in this sprint stakes for state-bred juvenile colts and geldings.  At 7/5 on the morning line, the son of Southern Image is expected to remain unscathed for Bay Area-based trainer Greg James.  A sharp winner over this track when taking the I’m Smokin’ Stakes in early September, he boasts a steady work tab at Golden Gate Fields since that win and should run at least as well and perhaps better today.  #7 Family Code has rising numbers and looked good beating a softer field at Santa Anita in fast time three weeks ago; if he can produce another forward move he may give ‘Image a run for his money.  #8 Mana Strike won at first asking up north like a promising colt and has the style that should be well-suited for this seven furlong affair.  He’s better than his 12-1 morning line gives him credit for and is certainly worth including in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (5:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Bal a Bali; 4-Texas Ryano;

#1 Bal a Bali has been facing the best middle distance turf runners in the West lately and today drops into the conditioned allowance ranks to regain his confidence.  The Mandella-trained South American import continues to impress in the morning and should have no excuses from his favorable rail post.  We’re expecting Bejarano to have him along in plenty of time.  #4 Texas Ryano is vastly improved of late; however, a mile might be a tad sharp for this deep-closing colt.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Bal a Bali on top.

NINTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Fab Four Ever; 4-Scatchmeifyoucan; 10-Myrna Lou

The finale is a $16,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies and looks fairly wide open.  #4 Scatchmeifyoucan has plenty of zip and should establish herself as the controlling speed; her numbers are improving and with another forward move might take this field all the way.  There’s some value here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it.  #2 Fab Four Ever is racing in good from for Truman, retains Bejarano, and should draft into a good second flight, stalking spot.  On pure numbers she’s right there.  #10 Myrna Lou has a prior win over this track and a good outside draw; she’ll be prompting the pace throughout and can at least hang around for a share.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play.