OCTOBER 24, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $9 investment

1st race: 3

2nd race: 1, 2

3rd race: 8

4th race: 5, 6, 11

5th race: 1, 3, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Single: 3-Tulira Castle

The opener is race we’re going to pass; you can single the obvious short-priced favorite, #3 Tulira Castle; try to beat him, or simply wait for much better wagering opportunities.  First off the claim for Miller (excellent stats with this angle), the razor-sharp ‘Castle has won his last pair with authority while earning legitimate speed figures, and if he has another good one left for his new connections he’ll be hard to deny once again.  However, at 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the veteran son of War Pass doesn’t present many options, other than perhaps as a rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Defrong; 2-Hoffenheim

Baffert has two major players in the second race, both highly-regarded first time starters, and both should be included in rolling exotic play.  #1 Defrong has done everything in the morning like a top prospect and if he can avoid trouble from the rail the son of Gio Ponti should be hard to handle.  His stablemate, #2 Hoffenheim, doesn’t appear to have the same type of early speed and may want a bit more distance than five and one-half furlongs, but in his workouts he’s indicated that he can turn it on late and should be heard from in the final furlong.

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 8-Frac Candy

#8 Frac Candy catches a weak field of maiden claiming juveniles and looks ready to graduate.  Beaten as the favorite in his most recent start at Del Mar (when his claim was voided due to unsoundness), the son of Twirling Candy returns at the same level, continues to look good in the morning for the Desormeaux brothers, and today will race with blinkers for the first time. Sure, he has issues, but he also has some ability and should put it to good use today, though at 2-1 on the morning line there’s really no value to be found.  Let’s use him a rolling exotic single but otherwise not get involved.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Roy H; 6-Incline Village; 11-Hawkedon

#5 Roy H has been away since a disappointing effort at odds-on in late August at Del Mar, but his work tab in recent weeks at San Luis Rey Downs indicates he’s back on the beam and with prior success over this downhill turf course the Miller-trained 3-year-old looks capable of making amends.  #6 Incline Village beat a $32,000 claiming field over this course and distance earlier this month and earned a nice number; with a repeat of that race today he should be right there despite the raise in class.  #11 Hawkedon is a good, consistent turf sprinter and is another with an excellent record under these conditions; Bejarano will have him running on late.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets with Roy H on top.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Golds Venice; 3-Fast McGoo; 8-Imwiththeblonde

This $12,500 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint for fillies and mares is inscrutable; small ticket players should consider going three-deep but if you can afford to buy the race, you should consider it.  #3 Fast McGoo drops to her lowest level ever and on that angle alone may rate a slight edge; she retains Nakatani, has hit the board in three of four starts over the Santa Anita main track and should be on or near the lead throughout.  #1 Golds Venice broke her maiden against a very modest maiden $20,000 field earlier this month; she earned an okay number and with just six prior starts might have room for another forward move.  Toss her in.  #8 Imwiththeblonde continues to train like she can run a bit for Sadler though her poor recent form is hardly inspiring.  Perhaps with this huge class drop – this is her first start for a tag – she’ll wake up, and from her cozy outside post the daughter of Montbrook should have no excuses.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 9-Jury

The known element isn’t inspiring so let’s try a fresh face in this abbreviated sprint for maiden juveniles.  #9 Jury was impressive in the OBS March preview session (breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds) and then brought $140,000 at auction; he makes his debut today for Hollendorfer (superior stats with first-timers) and has been sharp in recent works to indicate he has plenty of ability.  Apparently he’s not blazingly quick and may have to overcome a wide trip from his outside draw, but let’s hope he’s good enough to do just that.  We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 4-1.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Hunt; 2-Mr. Brightside; 3-Om

The Twilight Derby should boil down to the inside three entrants and all have credentials to win.  #3 Om was highly-impressive taking the Del Mar Derby in gate-to-wire style and surely will try similar tactics today.  If he’s able to establish the pace without any pressure, he could be long gone again.  #1 Hunt continues to impress in the morning for D’Amato and seems very likely to produce a forward move after a promising runner-up try vs. softer in his U.S. debut at Del Mar.  He should appreciate the nine furlong trip and Smith got to know him last time out.  #2 Mr. Brightside performed well in good handicap company in England – he finished in the frame in eight of nine starts – and makes her U.S. bow with Lasix for Jeremy Noseda, an ex-American trainer who knows what it takes to win a race like this.  The son of Lord Shanakill is unproven at this distance but his style in shorter races suggests he’ll be prominent throughout.  Om is the one to beat, but all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Dortmund

#5 Dortmund is a perfect four-for-four over the Santa Anita main track and since he won his debut we know he can fire a big shot fresh.  The works indicate he’s fit and ready and the 3-year-old son of Big Brown should be at least as good if not better this time around after being rested since his distant fourth place finish in the Preakness behind American Pharoah.  While he offers no value at 4/5 on the morning line, the Baffert-trained colt seems likely to fulfill his role as a logical rolling exotic single.

NINTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 10-British Bulldog; 11-Aztec Warrior

The nightcap is an intriguing maiden mile turf event for juveniles with our two top contenders stuck way outside.  Let’s hope one or both are capable of overcoming the draw.  #11 Aztec Warrior is a first-timer bred to love turf (Kitten’s Joy) with a series of strong drills to indicate he’s ready for a big effort; the O’Neill-trained colt looked like a runner during the preview session at the Barrretts May Sale (he breezed a quarter in 21 2/5 seconds) and has done everything right in recent weeks leading up to his debut.  He looks like a live item – post and all – with Bejarano taking the call.  #10 British Bulldog flashed ability when a decent runner-up in his debut at Del Mar over a mile on turf and has worked well since; a forward move is likely and the switch to Smith must be considered a positive factor.