Jeff Siegel's Elite-8 Breeders' Cup Rankings

Updated October 21, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 - American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 - Beholder (R. Mandella)

3 - Tonalist (C. Clement)

4 - Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

5 - Keen Ice (D. Romans)

6 - Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

7 - Smooth Roller (V. Garcia)
8 - Gleneagles-IRE (A. O'Brien)

Also Entered: Effinex; Hard Aces

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division, though the margin in paper thin.  In his fifth workout since that race, the Triple Crown winner went seven furlongs in 1:23 seconds at Santa Anita Oct. 14. He's scheduled to have a similarly strenuous drill Oct. 20 and then a light breeze the following week before heading to Kentucky.  Beholder maintained her edge in what was nothing more than an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta S.-G1 Sept. 26 at Santa Anita in her final BC prep, winning in a common gallop. The daughter of Henny Hughes breezed five furlongs in 1:02 seconds Oct. 15 at Santa Anita and then was flown to at Keeneland  on Oct. 19.  Tonalist was superb winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 over his favorite track (Belmont Park) and surface (wet).  Meanwhile, Honor Code was below his best form when a non-threatening third over that same very wet track in the Kelso S-G2 in his final tune-up; clearly he's very good when things set up well for him, but it's obvious that he's pace dependent.  Smooth Roller has come from nowhere to become a player in the division following a highly-rated (with a perfect trip) victory in the Awesome Again S.-G1.  European hotshot Gleneagles-IRE ran below form when unplaced in the Qipco Champions Stakes at Ascot but is still expected to enter the BC Classic in what will be his first try on dirt. The son of Galileo was the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot earlier this year.  His dam is a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway, who was a narrowly beaten runner-up to Tiznow for trainer Aidan O’Brien in the 2000 BC Classic.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 - Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)

2 - Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

3 - Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

4 - Red Vine (C. Clement)

5 - Valid (M. Vitali)

6 - Bradester (E. Kenneally)
7 - Tapiture (S. Asmussen)
8 - Mr. Z (D. W. Lukas)

Also Entered: Barbados (Sprint 1st preference); Lea (Mile 1st preference); Mshawish (Mile 1st preference); Tapiture; War Envoy (Mile 1st preference); War Story; Midnight Storm (Mile 1st preference); Street Strategy; Nates Mineshaft (Sprint 1st preference)

ANALYSIS – The dominating victory by Liam’s Map in the Woodward S.-G1 makes him head-and-shoulders better than his prospective rivals in the BC Dirt Mile, especially at Keeneland, where the race will conclude at the sixteenth pole, not at the traditional finish line, due the 1 1/16 miles configuration of the main track.  Appealing Tale, took the Kelso H.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion over a very wet track that he clearly enjoyed.  His connections are hoping for similar weather on BC day. Wicked Strong was an admirable runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 behind Tonalist; a mile might not be his best trip but he'll fit much better against this level of competition.  Red Vine will be running on late and could easily get at least a piece of it.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 - Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 - Found-IRE (A. O'Brien)

3 - Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

4 - The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

5 - Twilight Eclipse (T. Albertrani)
6 - Big John B (P. D'Amato)
7 - Slumber-GB (C. Brown)
8 - Red Rifle (T. Pletcher)

Also Entered: Cage Fighter; Da Big Hoss; Ordak Dan-AR; Postponed-IRE; Shining Copper.

ANALYSIS – Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship S.-G1 and then followed that outstanding performance with a superb score in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1.  Anything close to that performance - or any of his previous races in 2015 - will be more than good enough to win. Found-IR is multiple Group-1 placed this year and was second to Golden Horn in Ireland.  She's clearly best of the rest on merit.  Big Blue Kitten enters the BC Turf follow a course record-setting victory in the Hirsch S.-G1 but that race, as good as it was, would not nearly be enough to beat Golden Horn, or even Found, if those two Euro's reproduce their best form.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 - Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 - Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 - Wild Dude (J. Hollendorfer)

4 - Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)
5 - Salutos Amigos (D. Jacobson)

6 - Big Macher (R. Baltas) 
7 - Barbados (M. Tomlinson)
8 - Kobe's Back (P. Eurton)

Also Entered: Appealing Tale (Mile 1st preference); Favorite Tale; La Verdad (Filly & Mare Sprint 1st preference); Limousine Liberal; Masochistic; Palace; Stalkwalkin' Dude; Ivan Fallunovalot; Alsvid; Gentlemen's Bet; Jimmy Bouncer; Holy Lute; Nate's Mineshaft.

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  The pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, but he still rates as the best of the speed-types. Runhappy remained unbeaten in sprint races with a highly impressive wet-track victory in the Phoenix S.-G3 at Keeneland. The California-based Wild Dude is a prototype late-running sprinter; the faster they go up front, the better chance he has. A victory by anybody other than the top three would have to be considered a surprise.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 - Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre) 
2 - Make Believe-GB (A. Fabre)              

3 - Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)
4 - Impassable-IR (C. Laffon-Parias)

5 - Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)
6 - Tepin (M. Casse)
7 - Time Test-GB (R. Charleton)

8 - Grand Arch (B. Lynch)

Also Entered: Bawina-IRE (Filly & Mare Turf 1st preference); Lea; Midnight Storm; Mshawish; Obviously-IR; Tourist; War Envoy; Recepta (Filly & Mare Turf 1st preference). 

ANALYSIS – Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France last month and then was thoroughly convincing taking the Sun Chariot S.-G1 at Newmarket on the first Saturday in October.  At age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre, who will saddle another strong contender in Make Believe-GB; twice a Goup-1 winner in France this year including the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp earlier this month.  Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form while Impassable-IRE is brings with her from France a three race winning streak including the Wildenstein-G2 on Oct. 3.  Mondialiste-IR got his ticket paid for with his victory in the Woodbine Mile-G1 while Tepin, extremely impressive winning the First Lady S.-G1, shows up on this list because her connections believe she is better suited for a mile rather than the mile and three-sixteenths distance of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Time Test-GB is a lightly-raced and progressive Group-2 winning 3-year-old English colt that must be given a legitimate long shot look.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 - Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 - Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)

3 - Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

4 - Untapable (S. Asmussen)

5 - Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

6 - Yahilwa (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - I'm A Chatterbox (L. Jones)

8 - Curalina (T. Pletcher)

Also Entered:  Beholder (Classic 1st preference); Frivolous; My Sweet Addiction; Salama; Stellar Wind; Warren's Veneda; Calamity Kate; Peace and War

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast has won eight of 12 in including a romp in the Beldame S.-G1.  With Beholder opting for the Classic, the daughter of Street Sense should inherit the favorite’s role.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  Got Lucky rises in the rankings following her determined win in the Spinster S.-G1 at Keeneland over Untapable, Yahilwa, and Frivolous.  The three year old fillies are good, not great, with I’m a Chatterbox, Curalina, and Stellar Wind needing to raise their game just a bit to be a serious threat vs. the older mares.   

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 - Legatissimo-IRE (D. Wachman)
2 - Miss France-IRE (A. Fabre)

2 - Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

4 - Secret Gesture-GB (R. Beckett)

5 - Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

6 - Watsdachances (C. Brown)

7 - Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)
8 - Bawina-IRE (C. Laffon-Parias)

Also Entered: Hard Not to Like; Impassable-IRE (Mile 1st preference); Photo Call-IRE; Queen's Jewel-GB; Sentiero Italia; Sharla Rae; Elektrum-IRE; Irish Rookie-IRE; Talmada; Stormy Lucy; Recepta; Personal Diary; Mutatis Mutaqndis-IRE.

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and on pure form outclasses this field.  Miss France-IRE has finished second in four straight races in group company in France and England; this will be just her third start in 2015 and she could be set for a breakthrough performance.  Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa S.-G2 while verifying her superior Chilean form. Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D S.-G1, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and could improve on that performance is this year's event.  Stephanie's Kitten got back on track with a win in the Flower Bowl S.-G1 over a soft turf course.  

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 - Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                

2 - Stonetastic (K. Breen)

3 - Taris (S. Callaghan)

4 - Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

5 - La Verdad (L. Rice)

6 - Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher) 
7 - Wavell Avenue (C. Brown)
8 - Super Majesty (J. Hollendorfer)

Also Entered: Artemis Agrotera; Curalina (Distaff 1st preference); Fioretti; Kiss to Remember; Merry Meadow; Room for Me; Sweet Whiskey.

ANALYSIS – Cavorting has the closing style that appears ideally suited for this seven furlong trip and continues to improve with each race. Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win vs. overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  Taris finished a disappointing third in the L. A. Woman S.-G3 after being caught four-wide battling on a torrid pace.  She had been trained lightly since her victory in the Rancho Bernardo S.-G2 at Del Mar in August and ran like she needed the race badly.  La Verdad won the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 in typically game fashion but the BC trip of seven furlongs is stretching her limit. 

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 - Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 - Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 - Undrafted (W. Ward)

4 - Ageless (A. Delacour)

5 - No Silent (G. Mandella)

6 - Pure Sensation (C. Clement) 
7 - Mongolian Saturday (E. Ganbat)                     

8 - Amelia's Wild Ride (R. Preciado)

Also Entered: Bobby's Kitten; Channel Marker; Green Mas;, Obviously (Mile 1st preference); Something Extra; The Great War; Marchman; Stacked Deck; Jimmy Bouncer (Sprint 1st preference); Joe Franklin; Rumble Doll.

ANALYSIS – Lady Shipman had her perfect record of seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs snapped when she lost a photo to Ageless in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County S. at Keeneland Oct. 9, but we're going to assume that she will benefit from the outing and be a tighter and tougher when it really counts on Breeders' Cup day. Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S. in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win and probably is even more effective on turf.   Undrafted had his most impressive victory at Royal Ascot in June when winning the Group-1 Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who will be reunited with the Wesley Ward-trained colt for this race. Ageless suffered a substantial gash on her left hind leg in that race and while no structural damange was reported she did have to be sent to Hagyard Equine Clinic near Keeneland for observation.  Her BC status is questionable.  

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 - Brody's Cause (D. Romans)

2 - Greenpointcrusader (D. Schettino)

3 - Nyquist (D. O'Neill)

4 - Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)
5 - Riker (N. Gonzalez)

6 - Swipe (K. Desormeaux)

7 - Cocked and Loaded (L. Rivelli)
8 - Ralis (D. O'Neill)

Also Entered: Hollywood Don (Juvenile Turf 1st preference); Isotherm (Juvenile Turf 1st preference), Rated R Superstar; Sticksstatelydude, Tale of S'avall; Unbridled Outlaw, Conquest Big E, Waterloo Bridge (Juvenile Turf 1st preference), Siding Spring (Juvenile Turf 1st preference), Fellowship, Tom's Ready.

ANALYSIS – Brody's Cause is a rapidly progressing colt and produced an impressive late kick to win the Breeders' Futurity-G1 over the same course and distance of the BC Juvenile. The victory came on the heels of a smart maiden win at Churchill Downs and with his pedigree and true route style the son of Giant's Causeway looks like the one to beat. Greenpointcrusader was outstanding when winning the Champagne S.-G1 while earning a legitimate number.  The wet track makes it difficult to truly gauge his performance but we sure liked what we saw.  Nyquist is undefeated in four starts including victories in two Grade One events – the Del Mar Futurity and the FrontRunner S. – but he’s not fast on speed figures and probably hasn't been beating all that much on the West Coast.  Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special S.-G2 but was no match for Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity, failing to match strides with that colt in the final furlong after hitting the front entering the lane. He may have been a tad short for the race, or perhaps he's better around one turn.  Riker is undefeated in Canada - he won the Grey S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion while setting easy splits - and will get tested against the big boys at Keeneland. 

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 - Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

2 - Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

3 - Tap to It (R. Nicks)

4 - Nickname (S. Asmussen)

5 - Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)
6 - Dothraki Queen (K. McPeek)

7 - Bold Quality (K. Breen)
8 - Me Can Do It (D. Romans)

Also Entered: Forever Darling; Nemoralia (Juvenile Fillies Turf 1st preference); Right There; Thrilled (Juvenile Fillies Turf 1st preference)

ANALYSIS – The victory by Songbird in the Chandelier S.-G1 vaults her to the number one spot in our rankings but the margin is thin over Rachel’s Valentina.  The difference is that the Hollendorfer-trained filly has proven herself around two turns and she did so with a strong number. The victory by Rachel’s Valentina in the Spinaway S.-G1 gave the impression that she'll handle a route of ground as well.  Tap to It performed gallantly when second in the Spinaway - the quick turnaround from her maiden win did her no favors - and is another that will appreciate two-turns. Nickname won the Frizette-G1 but a very wet track makes the result hard to trust. Land over Sea, third in the Debutante behind Songbird and then second to her again in the Chandelier, might actually be better on turf but this race is her first preference..

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 - Hit It a Bomb (A. O'Brien)
2 - Cymric (J. Gosden)
3 - Catapult (C. Brown)
4 - Airoforce (M. Casse)
5 - Camelot Kitten (C. Brown)
6 - Waterloo Bridge-IRE (A. O'Brien)

7 - Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)

8 - Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

Also Entered: Azar; Birchwood-IRE; Isotherm; Manhattan Dan; Ralis (Juvenile 1st preference); Riker (Juvenile 1st preference); Shogun; Sky Marshal; Ray's the Bar-GB; Highland Sky; Dressed in Hermes; Siding Spring; Ample Sufficiency; Humphrey Bogart-IRE; Imperial Warrior; Tequila Joe; Strike Midnight; Sheikh of Sheikhs; Copingway.

ANALYSIS – European imports have won five of the first eight renewals of this race and their dominance figures to continue this year.  Hit It a Bomb is an unbeaten stakes-winning son of War Front that trainer Aidan O'Brien holds in very high regard and looks at least as good on paper as O'Brien's two previous winners of this race, Wrote and George Vancouver.  O'Brien's other entrant, Waterloo Bridge-IRE, was a Group-2 winner at Royal Ascot in June.  Cymric is improving with racing and just missed in a photo in the Gran Criterium-G1 at Longchamp on Arc day.  His trainer, John Gosden, has won this race twice, with Donativum and Pounced.  Trainer Mark Casse is well represented with a pair of excellent prospects.  Airoforce improved his record to two-for-two with a smart score in the Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland while Conquest Daddyo is a Scat Daddy colt that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Camelot Kitten, a full-brother to Bobby's Kitten, was a strong closing second behind Airoforce and with another forward move will be very dangerous on Breeders' Cup day. 


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 - Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 - Harmonize (W. Mott)
3 - Illuminate-IRE (R. Hannon)
4 - Alice Springs-IRE (A. O'Brien)
5 - Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

6 - Tin Type Gal (G. Motion)

7 - Last Waltz-IRE (C. Brown

8 - Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

Also Entered: Andreya's Reward; Land Over Sea (Juvenile Fillies 1st preference); Mirage-IRE; Pricedtoperfection; Ruby Notion; Gliding By; Time and Motion; Llanita-GB; Sapphire Kitten; Silky Girl; Vieja Luna; La Piba

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division very slightly over the two-time turf stakes winner Harmonize.  The latter won the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga on the front end but changed tactics to capture the Jessamine S.-G3 despite an extremely wide trip from far off the pace at Keeneland. Illuminate-IRE is a  high-class juvenile filly from England; however, she's never been tried over a distance of ground and she's a quick-action that may prefer to sprint.  Alice Springs-IRE is Group-1 placed and the winner of a valuable sales stakes at Newmarket for Aidan O'Brien; she'll appreciate two-turns and some pace up front.  Nemoralia was a game second in the Frizette S.-G1 over a sloppy main track in her U.S. debut and today returns to more familiar footing. If she moves forward at all, she'll be right there.  Tin Type Gal is unbeaten in two starts following her workmanlike victory in the Miss Grillo S.-G3 over Thrilled.  Last Waltz-IR, a close third in a recent Group-3 in Ireland, has been purchased privately and will be making her U.S. debut for Chad Brown.