OCTOBER 16, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $12 investment

1st race: 4, 5

2nd race: 2, 4

3rd race: 8

4th race: 1, 4, 6

5th race: 3, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Exposure; 5-Stealth Drone

The opener has just five starters and doesn’t anything in the way of wagering value.  #5 Stealth Drone returns to her claim level and a repeat of her race before last may be good enough to regain her winning form.  The Velasquez-trained filly won her only start over this main track during the spring meeting and should settle nicely in a stalking/pressing position from her outside post.  #4 Exposure, fourth in the same race that Stealth Drone just finished third in at Los Alamitos, also has a prior win at Santa Anita and really won’t have to improve all that much to be a strong threat.  We’ve rated this race a “C” so best advice is to tread lightly or simply pass.

SECOND RACE (1:33 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Watdifrenzdzitmake; 4-Luvuryan

#4 Luvuryan, first off the claim for D’Amato (powerful 25% with this angle), is much better than his last troubled race shows and looks quite capable of snapping back to winning form while dropping drastically from $25,000 to $12,500.  Freshened since mid-August and switching to Baze, the son of Artie Schiller has run well in two starts over this main track and should beat this field with a repeat of his race before last.  #2 Watdifrenzdzitmake is the “other” D’Amato in the field and has credentials as well, so we suggest you him as a saver, at least.  Pereia will have him running on late. 

THIRD RACE (2:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-Agronomy

#8 Agronomy breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS March Sale and then brought $560,000 at auction (he was the sale’s final offering, hip # 610).  The son of Sidney’s Candy has continued to train impressively and looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking for a barn that has terrific stats with this angle.  In a below par field of maiden juveniles, the Sadler-trained colt looks like a straight play and rolling exotic single.

FOURTH RACE (2:39 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-So Sweetitiz; 4-Lily Pod; 6-Untouchable U

This maiden sprint for older fillies and mares has three main contenders and they look evenly matched.  #1 So Sweetitiz must leave from the rail but retains Bejarano after finishing a good second with a solid number at Los Alamitos last month.  #4 Lily Pod is plenty quick and continues to impress in the a.m.  Untouchable U, a distant third in a fast, highly-rated affair at Del Mar, has plenty of room to improve for Truman and from her outside draw should have every chance with a clear trip.  We’ll give Untouchable U the edge on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.

FIFTH RACE (3:13 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-One of the Greats; 4-Alamo

#4 Alamo has been a money burner most of his career but will get plenty of play again today over a turf course that he’s shown he likes.  A repeat of his race-before last – a powerful runner-up to try Roy H – will be more than good enough to beat this field.  #3 One of the Greats found his best stride too late while finishing fourth in an abbreviated turf sprint at Del Mar in his debut and seems sure to improve for Miller (strong with second-timers).  The extra furlong and a half won’t hurt, either.  Preference, reluctantly, goes to Alamo on top but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (3:44 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Enduring Erin

#3 Enduring Erin won two good races at Del Mar – one via disqualification – and if she can maintain that form in today’s sixth race she can extend her streak to three.  The Hess-trained mare packs a pretty good stretch kick, retains Desormeaux, and fits these starter’s allowance conditions perfectly.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (4:14 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Rattataptap; 6-Chaulk O Lattey

#6 Chaulk O Lattey has really improved of late for Baltas and with another forward move should regain her winning form in this second-level turf miler for fillies and mares.  She’s already won twice over the local lawn and all three of her career victories have come under Bejarano.  #2 Rattataptap exits a pair of graded stakes and should really enjoy this softer company; the daughter of Tapit has more tactical speed than she’s been allowed to show of late and with aggressive handling from Baze she could inherit a comfy stalking trip from her nice inside post.  Chaulk O Lattey is the top pick but both are worth including in you rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Hopesky; 7-Third Division

#2 Hopesky is an intriguing first-time starter from the D’Amato stable with a very nice series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready.  In a somewhat lackluster high-priced maiden claimer, the son of Vronsky won’t have to be any kind of world beater to score at first asking.  We like him on top but as a saver we’ll include the best of the known element, #7 Third Division, a decent runner-up over this track and distance against a similar field a couple of weeks ago.