AUGUST 15, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $18 investment

1st race: 8

2nd race: 1, 4

3rd race: 7, 8

4th race: 4, 6, 9

5th race: 9, 11, 12

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 8-Carson City Five

#8 Carson City Five looks well-positioned to win the opener.  The Baffert-trained colt ran better that the line shows in his debut, breaking slowly, settling, and then finishing with interest without being knocked about before galloping out nicely.  Drawn perfectly outside and with the proper style for this extended sprint distance, the son of El Corredor retains Garcia, shows a nice breeze last week and figures to produce a major forward move.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Tangelo; 4-Queenofthepalace

Five of the seven entrants in today’s second event exit the same race.  From what we saw, #4 Queenofthepalace, who wound up eighth (but beaten just over two lengths) may have been the best of the lot.  Blocked the length of the lane without ever being set down by Espinoza, the New Zealand-bred filly certainly would be have been in the picture with clear sailing, and hopefully she’ll have better racing luck today.  We’ll also include #1 Tangelo, who failed to see out the trip when fading to finish eighth of nine in a mini-marathon 11-furlong allowance event last month.  She lands the good rail, should enjoy a favorable pace scenario, and seems certain to return to her best at this shorter trip.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two with Queenofthepalace on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Mt. Veeder; 8-Beaumarchais

#7 Mt. Veeder has done excellent work in the morning for Baffert and looks plenty fit and ready for a big effort first crack out of the box.  Those that have run don’t really impress, so we’re expecting a fresh face to win and ‘Veeder may be the best of that lot.  #8 Beaumarchais also has shown good speed in the morning and looks like a live item for Callaghan.  Drawn comfortably outside and bred to win early, the son of Big Drama brought $150,000 at the OBS March Sale, where he previewed in 10 1/5 seconds.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the edge on top to Mt. Veeder.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Broadway Nika; 6-Carlot Cowboy; 9-All Squared Away

We’ve graded this race a “C” and if we had a lower grade, we’d use it.  There are simply too many question marks in a chaotic affair to construct a real opinion, so nothing would surprise us.  We’ve listed the three most logical contenders above for those who want the action but the best advice here is to either pass the race or, if you’re playing rolling exotics, buy it.  #9 All Squared Away goes for Miller to Nettles after finishing third opening day despite breaking thru the gate prior to the start.  How he runs today for a barn that is winless in 2015 is anybody’s guess.  #6 Carlot Cowboy, second off layoff for Spawr, couldn’t handle the off track and was far back vs. tougher so he drops drastically in class and can win if in one piece.  #4 Broadway Nika, absent for two months, needs a soft pace up front and if he gets it he could easily outrun this group.  Anything goes, so tread lightly.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 9-Public Policy; 11-Ultimate Luck; 12-Justonemorething

This is another treacherous affair requiring a spread.  We’ve listed three logical contenders above but if truth be told we don’t trust any of the three.  #9 Public Policy and #11 Ultimate Luck finished second and fourth, respectively, in a similar event over a sloppy track last month and both are capable of showing an improved effort today on fast ground.  ‘Policy has been fairly consistent lately but just can’t seem to find the needed reserve energy when challenged late and is winless in five starts this year.  He’ll only need a tad of improvement today, though, to win.  #11 Justonemorething should be a late factor under Talamo and while we’ll use him in our rolling exotics he’s another you really can’t count on.  He does have a maiden win last May that would beat this field if repeated.  Public Policy is winless in five starts this year but at least his numbers are getting better and he should be able to hit the board.  This is another one of those “C” graded races that is best left alone.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Weewinnin; 8-Patentar; 11-Jules Journey

This grass grab bag is yet another on the program that has many question marks and must be treated carefully.  The three listed above should run well; that’s about as much confidence as we can have.  #3 Weewinnin just won a state-bred stakes over this course and earned a legitimate number; he can do damage on the lead or from a stalking position so Talamo, who knows him very well, has a few options.  #8 Patentar is a mystery import from England getting Lasix for the first time and hailing from the Callaghan barn, which traditionally does very well with these European imports.  The French-bred colt gets Bejarano and Lasix and off his best race overseas should be a fit at this level.  #11 Jules Journey is stuck way outside but if he can somehow negotiate a decent trip he’s good enough to make a strong run for it.   The negative is his lifetime record which reads three wins with 17 seconds and thirds and he’s never really been one to count on in the final furlong.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Forthenineteen; 3-Plane Lucky; 10-Run for Retts

This maiden state-bred juvenile filly sprint looks completely wide open and requires as large a spread as you can afford in rolling exotic play.  Small ticket players can consider the three listed above.  #3 Plane Lucky has the benefit of a run and actually did well to be third opening day in a decent race for the level.  If she improves, she’ll be the one to beat.  #10 Run for Retts, from the clever Miyadi barn, has done enough in the morning to indicate some talent and at 10-1 on the morning she’s worth strong consideration.  #2 Forthenineteen is another that seems to have some talent and with four solid five furlongs works underneath her the daughter of Lucky J. H. should be plenty fit.  You may offer the best value at 12-1 on the morning line so we’ll put her on top while recognizing that this race is a complete raffle.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 6-Prize Exhibit; 7-Zipessa

#7 Zipessa was scratched out of yesterday’s Sandy Blue ‘Cap to run in today’s more valuable Del Mar Oaks; it was the owners’ decision, not the trainer’s.  We like her a lot, though, and expect her to remain undefeated in just her third career start after winning from a first-level allowance field in visually pleasing style opening week.  The daughter of City Zip should benefit from the nine furlong distance and while she loses Bejarano (who was committed to Stidham’s other starter, Her Emmynency), she picks up Prat, so there’s certainly no issue with the jockey switch.  #6 Prize Exhibit has gotten very good in her last pair for Cassidy and represents the most dangerous of the closers.  There should be enough pace to set things up for her closing kick, but even if the early fractions are slow, she’s sure to be bearing down in the final furlong.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then have some extra tickets with Zipessa on top.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Rule He Will; 7-London Legacy; 8-Distinctive B

This is a highly-competitive first level allowance sprint with several capable contenders.  #8 Distinctive B has improved a ton lately for Cassidy while giving strong indication that he’s always wanted to be a dirt sprinter but never really had a chance to prove it.  His bottom-rung maiden claiming win at Santa Anita two races back earned a huge figure and it was verified by an equally impressive starter’s allowance score at Los Alamitos last month.  Today he tries Del Mar and the Cassidy-trained gelding will van in from Temecula and Galway Downs, where he is stabled off track.  Drawn comfortably outside while retaining Gonzalez, he should continue his excellent form despite the class hike.  #7 London Legacy is another sharp and improved sprinter, having just won a first-level state-bred affair over this track and distance earlier this month.  He’s a fit figures, retains Bejarano, and has a nice second flight, stalking style.  #2 Rule He Will couldn’t get involved in a very strong recent turf sprint – his first start since May – and we’re expecting an improved performance today from the Glatt-trained gelding.  If he can avoid trouble from the rail, he can at least hit the board.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Illuminant; 9-Redheads Rule; 11-Sweet Promises

#9 Redheads Rule, freshened since May and training nicely at San Luis Rey Downs for her comeback, always has struck us as a route-type and she finally gets her chance around two-turns in this middle distance turf event for older maiden fillies and mares.  The daughter of Big Brown ran two solid races down the Hillside Course earlier in the year; today she returns against a group she appears capable of beating and is reunited with Espinoza, who got good run out of her two races back.  #6 Illuminant is another stretching out for the first time and her one prior race on turf – down the hill at Santa Anita – was clearly her best. She switches to Bejarano and could easily find herself on the lead.  #11 Sweet Promises has been a major disappointment after showing some promise in her debut.  We’ll give her one more chance because this is her first start on turf and maybe that’s what she’s always wanted.  She’s 20-1 on the morning line so it’s worth finding out.