AUGUST 21, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $80.50 investment

1st race: 4, 5, 7

2nd race: 3, 7, 8

3rd race: 1, 5

4th race: 4, 9, 10

5th race: 5, 6, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Astra Star; 5-Sharp Holiday; 7-Vronsky’s Devka

This is one of those unclassified races in which none of the entrants have established any type of form.  Best advice is play conservatively or simply pass.  Let’s first take a look at #5 Sharp Holiday.  The Koriner-trained filly was advancing nicely into the turn in a straight maiden state-bred affair at Los Alamitos in her debut but was completely sawed off and eliminated; she had a right to finish a whole lot farther back than the 19 lengths she was actually beaten by.  The daughter of Thorn Song brought a very respectable $24,000 as a yearling (a strong price for this stallion) and remains reasonably protected in this high priced claimer.  Today we’ll find out if she can run.  #4 Astra Star was given a race in her debut vs. much tougher state-bred straight maiden company and seems sure to improve against this much lesser group.  She gets an extra furlong to work with today and should be dangerous from off the pace.  #7 Vronsky’s Devka seems to be progressing for Harrington and should be pressing the issue outside.  With another forward move, she could be hard to beat.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Sharp Holiday on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Sacred Ovation; 7-Basmati; 8-Mistaken Identity

This is another tough affair, one that requires a bit of a spread.  It’s also the beginning of the Pick-6 sequence on this shortened seven race program.  The three listed above all have interesting angles and past form that make them contenders.  #8 Mistaken Identity, freshened since mid-June, has been working lights out for his return and drops for the money run while switching to Bejarano and returning to the main track.  He’s been all over the map with regards to distance, having been tried in races from five furlongs to a mile and one-half, but certainly is capable of winning a sprint and looks capable of firing a big shot fresh.  #3 Secret Ovation removes blinkers, drops a level in class for Agarie and exits a fairly strong race in his second outing since March.  He should show improvement and always has been genuine and consistent, having finished first or second in 13 of 23 career starts.  #7 Basmati is another with that blinkers-off angle that we like so much; he’s also a first-off-the-claim for Miyadi (18% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) so we’re expecting a forward move, one that puts him in the hunt.  We’ll slightly prefer Mistaken Identity on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Dynamite Ride; 5-Lovenseek

#5 Lovenseek returns to straight 3-year-old company today while dropping to a realistic level and returning to his preferred surface, grass.  The Miller-trained gelding adds blinkers and obviously will be sent to the front. Espinoza has won with him in the past and hopefully will be able to save something for the drive.  #1 Dynamite Ride should draft into a good stalking, ground-saving position and will be there to pounce if Lovenseek can’t get the trip.  The Garcia-trained gelding was a solid runner-up over this course earlier this month while earning a career top speed figure and with another forward move should be tough to contain.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics; we’ll have an extra ticket or two with Lovenseek on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Kelly With a Twist; 9-True Ranger; 10-Nusret

This is another messy maiden claiming sprint for juveniles and should be treated with caution.  We’ll use the three most logical contenders in our rolling exotics, but you may find the need to spread considerably deeper.   #9 True Ranger adds blinkers for the first time and certainly may improve; the Hendricks-trained colt was a distant third in a fairly strong race for the level in his local debut earlier this month and has a right to benefit from the outing.  #10 Nusret was 7/5 vs. straight maiden state-bred foes in his debut last May at Santa Anita and wound up sixth of seven after a slow start.  He returns at the bottom as a first-time gelding for Bonde and retains Bejarano; we’re assuming he’ll show better form today and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.    #4 Kelly With a Twist is re-equipped with blinkers while dropping into a claimer for the first time; he was reasonably close to the top prospect Young Brian to the top of the stretch in his last start and, needless to say, there is nothing approaching that kind of talent in this event.  The switch to Baze is another positive factor. 

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Nina’s Dragon; 6-Storm Comin Thru; 7-Chief of Staff

This first-level state-bred main track allowance miler is yet another difficult event on what is an extremely challenging card.  #7 Chief of Staff probably deserves the favorite’s role (he’s 2-1 on the morning line); however, his recent runner-up effort at this level over this track and distance might have flattered him a bit.  Today he’s hooking more early speed and may have to stalk and win, a trip that might not be his preferred style.  The positives are his speed figures (solid, at least when he’s been able to make the lead) and his connections (Bejarano/Hollendorfer) so you have to use him, but not single him.  Better value may come form #5 Nina’s Dragon, who has primarily been a front-running type himself but showed the ability to stalk and win last time with a clever score at Pleasanton.  He’s eligible to this race because he’s entered for $20,000 and the Bay Area invader is a strong fit in the speed figure department.  #6 Storm Comin Thru, a distant third in the same race Chief of Staff exits, probably is a bit better than the race shows and does have the ability to pass horses, a trait that will come in handy if the early pace comes up stronger than par as anticiapted.  Prat will give him the patient ride he needs. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and prefer the one that leaves at the best price, most likely Nina’s Dragon.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Aguafria; 3-Dido; 7-Circling

This overnight handicap at the mini-marathon distance of 11 furlongs could be won by any of the nine starters without really causing a stir; we’ll use three while preferring #7 Circling on top.  The Drysdale-trained filly is rounding into top form, drops 10 lbs. off a strong runner-up effort over this course and distance last month, and has trained nicely since; Smith stays aboard and probably will wait a bit longer today than last time to make his move.  At 6-1 on the morning line this daughter of Galileo offers, arguably, the best value in the field.  Drysdale’s other entrant, #2 Aguafria, is a non-winner in this country and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle for nearly two years, so she’s not exactly one to bank on.  However, she will be trying a new trip today and if the More Than Ready mare handles the distance she should at least hit the board and may be do better than that.  #3 Dido has been struck on seconds in the East and comes to Del Mar seeking to regain her winning form for Motion. She should inherit a good stalking spot and have every chance to produce a winning late bid. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 9-Olympic Lady; 10-Unstoppablepassion

This is a typical Del Mar nightcap, a wide-open bottom-rung maiden claimer.  Anything goes, and nothing would surprise us.  The two listed above are dropping considerably in class and figure to improve markedly against this level of competition.  #9 Olympic Lady is stretching out for the first time (bred for it) and dropping to the bottom; the Garcia-trained filly has sprint numbers that aren’t too bad and should find herself in a good pace stalking position without having to be used hard.  If she’s going to be any kind of race horse, this is the kind of race she should be able to win.  #10 Unstoppablepassion has been chasing straight maidens without any success so Miller gives her a chance against the weakest group on the grounds to see if she can cut it on this circuit.  The post is no help but the work tab indicates she’s doing well and that’s half the battle at this level.