AUGUST 16, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $18 investment

1st race: 8, 9

2nd race: 1, 5

3rd race: 2, 6, 7

4th race: 4

5th race: 2, 5, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 8-Gucci Brown; 9-Seek Safe Harbor

#9 Seek Safe Harbor is dropping from $20,000 to $12,500 in her first-off-the-claim for Miller so there’s a condition question surrounding this 3-year-old filly, but if she has at least one good one left she certainly can handle this assignment.  Drawn nicely outside while switching to Espinoza, she sports a solid, healthy work pattern in recent weeks at San Luis Rey Downs and owns speed figures that are more than sufficient to win at this level.  There’s not a lot of value, though, as she’s 2-1 on the morning line and likely will go lower.    #8 Gucci Brown is another class dropper seeking her winning level; with the switch to Bejarano she could produce a forward move in her second outing since arriving from the Midwest.  Seek Safe Harbor is clearly the most likely winner, but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Wildling; 5-Malibu Mogul

This $40,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds came up a bit light; let’s try a couple of fresh faces in rolling exotic play.  #1 Wildling was a runaway winner in his debut a year ago, was claimed for $40,000 by Avila, and then disappeared.  He returns waivered protected with a couple of sharp recent gate drills to have him fit and ready, and if he leaves cleanly from the rail the son of Sweet Return could be tough to beat.  #5 Malibu Mogul, a New Mexico invader from the Miller barn, removes blinkers while dropping into a claimer for the first time, and a repeat of his maiden win at Sunland Park puts him right there with his group.  We’ll include him at 6-1 on the morning line. 

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Caminetto; 6-Raised a Secret; 7-Red Outlaw

#2 Caminetto exits the Bing Crosby S.-G1, where he finished a respectable fourth after pressing the pace until deep stretch.  This return to the conditioned allowance ranks should allow the Baffert-trained gelding to regain his best form.  Probably most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the son of Stormy Atlantic will enjoy this extended sprint trip.  #7 Red Outlaw, away since late December and certainly capable of winning fresh for Miller, shows a strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready.  He could easily be the controlling speed and given that kind of trip could be tough to catch.  #6 Raised a Secret is a route-to-sprint play and also is being reunited with Bejarano, who won on him two races back.  He ran down Caminetto two races back for a sharp score and that effort makes him a major player today.  We’ll give Caminetto a very slight edge but go three-deep in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Taris

We’re going to assume that #4 Taris is fit and ready to win and we’ll therefore make her a rolling exotic single.  She’s clearly the fastest filly in the race, but she hasn’t been out since suffering an injury in late December and the work tab appears a tad light.  She does, however, catch a very favorable pace scenario and should be able to take control early and keep on going for a barn that has excellent stats with comebackers.  The connections are thinking Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint down the road and this looks like a logical launching spot.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Sir Cal; 5-Diablo Caballero; 8-Unusualy

This is an unpredictable group of older state-bred maidens; none are what you’d call trustworthy.  We’ll use the three listed above but not with a great deal of confidence.  #2 Sir Cal is re-equipped with blinkers after falling far back and then rallying too late when fourth, beaten two lengths, against essentially this same group last time out.  He’s drawn nicely inside, retains Bejarano and may be as good as any.  #5 Diablo Caballero is another adding blinkers (he’s worn them before) but today draws a much better post after leaving from the 11-hole against this group last time.  Hopefully, Talamo can tuck in early, save some ground, and then produce a run.  #8 Unusualy had a bit of early trouble and then finished well to be second in a dead-heat in a common race with many of these last month and really won’t have to improve that much to graduate.  With only five starts, the Unusual Heat gelding may have a bit more upside the others, so with Baze staying aboard and at 5-1 on the morning line, he’s certainly must be considered a contender.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 5-Ipray

#5 Ipray catches a woefully weak group of claiming 3-year-old fillies and while she’s not particularly fast on numbers and has been away for 10 weeks following her maiden claiming win, she qualifies by default as a rolling exotic single.  The daughter of Hold Me Back actually boasts a healthy work tab for D’Amato (good stats with layoff runners) and appears realistically spotted in this $16,000 claimer restricted to non-winners of two while switching to Bejarano.  At 3-1 on the morning line she offers some value, though we suspect she might go a bit lower.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Somethings Unusual; 8-Lucky Views; 9-Perfectly Majestic

This is a typical wide open grass affair for first-level allowance routers.  #9 Perfectly Majestic ran well under similar conditions opening week – he enjoyed a good trip and closed with interest to be beaten less than a length – and if he can improve just a bit the Hess-trained gelding certainly can win.  The major roadblock is the extreme outside post, but if Desormeaux can drop back and save some ground before the field hits the first turn, he should be okay.  #2 Somethings Unusual, fourth in the same race ‘Majestic just finished third in, figures to enjoy a nice ground-saving journey under Smith and is another that really won’t have to produce any great forward move to win.  #8 Lucky Views, first off the claim for Mathis (superior stats with this angle), is protected in a sign of confidence and switches to Bejarano.  He’s a one-paced type but if he can secure a good second-flight position he could be heard from late.  These are the three we’ll be using but if you can afford to go deeper, by all means do so.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-C. C. Zipp; 6-Oh Great Idea; 8-My Dynamo

This maiden sprint for juvenile fillies doesn’t look as loaded as usual so both #5 C. C. Zipp and #6 Oh Great Idea, with a race under their belts, are logically the ones to beat.  ‘Zipp hated the sloppy going in her debut and didn’t show her true form, but if she breaks well today she’s certain to improve big time for Hollendorfer (terrific stats with second-timers).  Smith rides her back, another positive sign.  Oh Great Idea was well-meant in her debut but hooked a good thing and settled for second; she’s likely to build on that effort today for Miller while switching to Espinoza.  #8 My Dynamo has worked well enough for Bonde to deserve a price chance (she’s 8-1 on the morning line) and may be the best of newcomers.  We’ll put C. C. Zipp on top and hope she shows up with her best stuff today.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Smoove It; 4-Journey On; 5-Chati’s On Top

#4 Journey On has been away for almost a year but her a.m. drills have been quite impressive for Baltas, whose record with comebackers is off the charts.  She’s a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar turf course and has back numbers that puts her right in the picture.  At 12-1 on the morning line she offers considerable long shot value in both the straight and rolling exotic pools.  #2 Smoove It was overmatched in the Gamely but isn’t today and should regain her best form.  The O’Neill-trained filly missed by a nose in the Wilshire S.-G3 so against this listed stakes company she should be right at home.  Recent works indicate she’s sharp and ready and from her good inside draw she can draft into an ideal spot.  #5 Chati’s On Top, freshened since May, can turn it on late and Gonzalez fits her well.  If a decent pace materializes, the daughter Old Topper should at least hit the board and may be do even better than that.  Let’s prefer Journey On due to price considerations but include all three in our rolling exotics.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 11-No Contingency; 12-Sir Barclay

#11 No Contingency, first off the claim for Pender, is quite consistent for this level of horse and should fire his typical good shot in this bottom-rung sprint.  The jockey is winless at the meeting (at last count, zero-for-40) so there’s that to consider, but in a modest affair this gelding seems as good as any.  #12 Sir Barclay, claimed in his last pair and now in the Knapp barn, switches to Prat and should have every chance to secure a good spot from his outside draw.  The Kafwain gelding has numbers that can win and looked healthy in a nice, easy blowout last week.  We’ll try to get by using just these two and hope that one or both are feeling their oats in an uninspiring affair.