AUGUST 8, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 4, 6

2nd race: 6, 7

3rd race: 1, 5

4th race: 3, 4, 12

5th race: 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Navy Hymn; 6-Purrin’ Proud

#4 Navy Hymn is one of only two previous starters in this high-priced maiden claiming sprint for juveniles; after beginning his career in a straight maiden event at Los Alamitos (finishing second) he was dropped to the M80000 level (finishing second again) and today shows up for M62500.  In both of his previous outings he had the lead at the furlong pole before being worn down late; today he’s being asked to handle an extra half furlong though the competition isn’t as tough.  While the O’Neill-trained two-year-old certainly could outrun this group, he offers no value at 8/5 on the morning line.  An intriguing newcomer is the Brocklebank-trained #6 Purrin’ Proud, listed at 8-1 on the morning line.  A $37,000 buy-back at the Barretts May Sale where he previewed in 10 1/5 seconds (appearing quick but green while on his wrong lead), the son of Proud Citizen was subsequently returned to his trainer’s home base in Utah for further conditioning.  Back in California now where he worked a half from the gate in 48 1/5 seconds late last month, the gelding may offer some price value at 8-1 on the morning line.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics, but otherwise not get too involved

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Mudge; 7-Fab Four Ever

#7 Fab Four Ever has little to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and rates top billing by default.  She’s lightly-raced with some room to improve and earned a career top speed figure when dead-heating for a distant second in a similar spot last month.  She goes from the rail to the outside and should have every chance on the lead or from a stalking position.  #6 Mudge finally broke her maiden in her 13^th career start while earning a career top figure at Los Alamitos and she could be a threat right back at this abbreviated sprint trip.  She’s not fast on numbers but she’s healthy and that’s more than can be said for most of the others.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but it’s not a race we’re going to be spending much money on.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Young Brian; 5-Letithappen

#1 Young Brian has done plenty of good work in the morning for D’Amato and looks like a very nice prospect, one capable of winning at first asking.  The rail could be an issue if the son of Hard Spun fails to leave with his field, but if he can negotiate a trouble-free journey, he’ll be tough to beat under Bejarano.  #5 Letithappen could do no better than third at 40 cents on the dollar in a five runner field at Pleasanton in his debut but we have a hunch he’s a better colt than that.  Entered in a maiden turf miler here last month but scratched when he drew on the also-eligible list, the Bonde-trained colt shows up in an extended sprint and should very much appreciate this trip.  He finished quite well and galloped out strongly in that race up north and with blinkers being added today he may display improved early speed. Young Brian gets top billing but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Rockin Rhythm; 4-Sayitright Kat; 12-Sidepocket Bet

This bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares doesn’t have a whole lot in it but the three listed above all have a right to show improvement, so we’ll sink or swim using the three in rolling exotic play.  #4 Sayitright Kat returns off an 11-month layoff for new trainer Baltas and is realistically spotted at this level; the daughter of Surf Cat finished a non-threatening sixth against straight maiden state-bred foes in her only prior start and earned a speed figure that makes her very competitive with this group.  She’s adding blinkers and probably will display improved early speed.  #12 Sidepocket Bet broke slowly, raced greenly and dropped far back in her debut but then took hold wide and finished with interest against a stronger M50000 field in April at Santa Anita.  This is a softer spot, so we’ll use the D’Amato-trained filly at 6-1 on the morning line.  #3 Rockin Rhythm finished a fair third in a soft maiden claimer at Los Alamitos in her only outing and like the others has a license to move forward.  A bullet three furlong blowout three days ago indicates she’s done well since that outing and Gutierrez stays aboard for Eurton.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Swipe

A good case can be made for both of the O’Neill-trained entrants.  #1 Found Money is unbeaten in two starts and the colt he just beat came back to win a state-bred stakes race.  #5 Nyquist won at first asking in what has proven to be a productive race and he’s plenty fast on speed figures.  Meanwhile, #2 Paynes Prairie is a stakes-placed New York invader making his first start since being purchased privately by clients of trainer Michael Pender and seems to have some quality.  But at this six and one-half furlong distance, #4 Swipe seems most likely to benefit from the trip and the son of Birdstone has improved with each outing for the Desormeaux brothers. With plenty of speed to set things up for his late kick, Swipe should have every chance to build on his Summer Juvenile Championship Stakes win at Santa Anita.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Forest Blue; 5-Seve’s Road; 9-The Gomper

#4 Forest Blue lost a toughie opening day in the Oceanside Stakes, getting tagged right on the money by Soul Driver while winding up more than three clear of the rest in a career-top performance.  He was able to establish the lead while setting comfortable splits in that race and was strong for the drive; a similar pace scenario looks likely to exist today.  A nice easy five furlong drill over the course around dogs since that race has kept him on edge.  #9 The Gomper hasn’t been out since early June but he was entered and scratched in an off-the-turfer a couple of weeks ago and the work pattern is healthy.  The Ellis-trained colt ran very well when second in his only prior turf outing and if he can get some help up front he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong.  #5 Seve’s Road is a deep closer that figures for at least a part of it; he’s back on turf and is another that would appreciate a decent early pace.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-French Press; 7-Discatsonthesquare; 8-Fast and Foxy

It may be risky to back a filly like #1 French Press – she draws the rail and has failed to break cleanly in each of three prior starts – but this is a below par field of entry-level allowance sprinters and she may have some upside that the others don’t.  She disappointed badly in her comeback in June at Santa Anita – she broke poorly and was never in it – but she continues to work well for D’Amato and Bejarano jumps aboard, so we’re willing to give her another chance, especially at 5-1 on the morning line.  #7 Discatsonthesquare has a good stalking style and a solid effort over the track so she figures somewhere in the hunt.  #8 Fast and Foxy looks like the speed of the speed and exits a productive race up north so we’ll also toss her in while recognizing that this extended sprint distance might be stretching her limit.  Simply stated, this is a chaotic affair where the winner could come from anywhere, so best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Fanticola; 4-Stormy Lucy; 8-Elektrum

This group has been taking turns all year.  They’re so evenly matched that rolling exotic players simply have to spread and keep their fingers crossed.  The pace scenario looks favorable for #4 Fanticola and she has won at nine furlongs in the past, though it’s about as far as she really wants to run.  #4 Stormy Lucy ran quite well in her comeback despite looking a tad rusty and should be primed for a forward move today.  She’s back with Bejarano, who has won two stakes with her in the past.  #8 Elektrum was an unlucky fourth in the Gamely S.-G1 vs. essentially this level of competition and she’s worked extremely since, indicating that more is possible.  Espinoza will give her patient ride she needs.  This another one of those races where you should include as many as your budget allows.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Sacred Ovation; 7-Nextdoorneighbor

It’s hard to go against #7 Nextdoorneighbor in his present form and he’ll very likely leave at lower than his morning line of 5/2.  He just defeated a slightly softer group at this extended sprint distance from a similar outside draw and there’s every reason to expect he’ll perform up to that standard again.  Baze stays aboard for Miller.  #6 Sacred Ovation, making his first start for Agarie following a four and one-half month vacation, has shown the ability to run with Nextdoorneighbor in the past and has trained quite well for his return.  He seems like the best of the speed types and always has been genuine and consistent (first or second in 13 of 22 career starts).  Strong preference must go to Nextdoorneighbor but we’ll use both in our rolling exotic play.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Single: 2-Barbs Angel

#2 Barbs Angel has such a substantial edge in speed figures compared to the rest of her rivals in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint that she almost has to win by default.  But can you really trust this Abrams-trained filly?  She’s still a maiden after nine starts, though this will be her first try at the bottom M20000 level.  If you’re playing rolling exotics, she might have to be a single by default because if she doesn’t win, anybody can.  We’ve rated this race a “C” only because that’s the lowest grade we give.