AUGUST 9, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $1.50 investment

1st race: 1

2nd race: 3

3rd race: 2

4th race: 2, 4, 7

5th race: 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Thundering Gale

#1Thundering Gale arrives in sharp form for her West Coast debut and there’s a whole lot of ship-and-win purse money she’s shooting for in this $32,000 turf claimer for fillies and mares.  She won her most recent start at Belmont Park in gate-to-wire fashion and could employ similar tactics today from her good rail post, yet she won her race-before-last from slightly off the pace so Desormeaux has options depending upon how the race shapes up.  Two recent easy workouts should have her on edge so we’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 3-New Summit

#3 New Summit originally was 7/5 on the morning line but will go lower due to the scratching of #1 Chasing Kings.  ‘Summit has legitimate speed figures for this level, has trained well over this track for West and catches a field he should be able to beat.  We'll make him a short price, no value rolling exotic single in a race we otherwise have plans to get involved in.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Ben’s Duchess

#2 Ben’s Duchess ran admirably when third from the 10-hole sprinting on turf vs. a similar conditioned allowance field last month and today she returns to the main track and shows a bullet 59 2/5 seconds workout since raced.  The lightly-raced and improving daughter of Munnings is genuine, consistent, and fast on numbers and looks well-placed to return to winning form for Sadler.  However, there’s really not a whole lot we can do with her at 8/5 on the morning line except use her as a rolling exotic single.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-China Prince; 4-Sizzlin’ Joe; 7-Atomic Rule

This is a typical wide open grass grab bag requiring a spread; we’ll try to get by using the three listed above.  #2 China Prince shows up in a claimer today and the class drop could very well make the winning difference.  Drawn nicely inside with Nakatani riding him back, the Dollase-trained gelding should draft into a perfect second flight, ground-saving position.  He’s good enough to beat this field based strictly on numbers and a couple of easy five furlong workouts since his last race has kept him on edge.  The morning line favorite at 5/2 is #4 Sizzlin’ Joe, raised a notch in a sign of confidence by Hollendorfer and switching to Bejarano.  He’s overdue for a win, having hit the board in all six starts this year without breaking through, and he’s won over this course in the past.  Bay Area invader #7 Atomic Rule is more of a synthetic specialist then a turf horse but he’s capable of winning on any surface when properly spotted and his best puts him in the picture at this level.  Tough on the lead or from off the pace, the McCanna-trained gelding loves to win and should fire a big shot following a brief freshening. 

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 6-Tribal Roar

We’re going to assume that logical favorite #11 Carlos Dangerous will not draw in from the also-eligible list (he’s the one to beat if he does), leaving this  woefully weak maiden claiming juvenile dash to #6 Tribal Roar.  A bit green and troubled in his racing debut against much tougher straight maiden company at Los Alamitos, the son of Tribal Rule seems sure to improve in this league and should be quick enough to make the pace and then go on with it, assuming he leaves with his field.  A nice recent workout over this track signals his readiness for a barn that in limited stats has done very well so far with second time starters.  Let’s make Tribal Roar a straight play and rolling exotic single, unless Carlos Dangerous joins the party, in which case we’ll double the race.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Miss Gifted

She probably didn’t beat a whole lot but #5 Miss Gifted really raised some eyebrows in her debut win down the hill against high-priced maiden claimers at Santa Anita in late June.  She broke slowly, took up at the start and fell far back for a half, then took hold and roared past her outclassed foes to win going away without really being knocked about.  Certainly bred to route and improve with age and experience, the daughter of Einstein stretches out for new trainer Sadler and looks primed for a repeat score in this first-level allowance affair.  Let’s make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and be happy to get close to her 3-1 morning line odds.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Treasuring

Garcia jumps off #9 Treasuring to ride the other Baffert (#7 Jade Princess) so maybe we’re zigging when we should be zagging.  However, Treasuring was very impressive in her debut, finishing a troubled third behind top prospect Songbird while giving every indication that she’ll improve a ton with experience and distance.  A nice easy half mile workout since that race indicates she ready to produce a forward move, and with Espinoza taking the mount she appears spot on for a huge run.  Jade Princess has worked well but we’re going to hope that she’s a race away, while the other two entrants that figure to get some play - #4 Dreamy Art and #10 Surfside Tiara – both have a license to improve and are contenders.  This has the makings of an unusually strong race for the level but we anticipate that Treasuring will be a cut above.  We’ll make the daughter of Smart Strike a straight play and rolling exotic single at 9/2 on the morning line.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Om; 6-Papacoolpapacool; 9-Prospect Park

#3 Om won the race that America Pharoah lost – he’ll always have that to hang his hat on – but the Munnings colt might actually be better on turf and looks very much like the one to beat in this Grade 2 middle distance stakes for 3-year-olds.  A smart winner of his only previous outing on grass, he’s trained extremely over the local lawn and almost assuredly with be the controlling speed, a role he can take full advantage of.  #6 Papacoolpapacool ran below his best form when fifth as the favorite in the opening day Oceanside Stakes; several runners out of that race came back to run yesterday and none of them hit the board in a first level allowance race. We’ll include Papacoolpapacool in our rolling exotics but only as a saver.  #9 Prospect Park has plenty of talent but isn’t the easiest of rides and is unproven on grass.  He’s another one you have to respect, but not as a main player.  We like Om strongly on top and would love to get the 7/2 that he’s listed on the morning line.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 7-Best in Class; 12-Lil Cheyenne

We really don’t have much of an opinion in this bottom-rung claiming sprint for fillies and mares other than to say the two listed above should run well in a very weak affair.  #7 Best in Class drops to the $8,000 level for the first time and has several past speed figures that are easily better than par.  If she shows up with anything close to her best, she should beat this field.  #12 Lil Cheyenne, in her third off a layoff for Glatt, retains Bejarano and will have an clear run from her outside draw.  At 6-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth tossing in.