AUGUST 26, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $81 investment

1st race: 2, 7

2nd race: 3, 4, 5

3rd race: 2, 4, 10

4th race: 3, 8, 9

5th race: 3, 8, 10

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Carnival Lights; 7-Ya Ya Girl

There’s nothing much to trust in today’s opener, a high-priced maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares, so tread lightly.  #7 Ya Ya Girl, in the money in her last three but a beaten choice in each of those outings, has numbers that can win and retains Bejarano.  She’s been somewhat victimized by poor draws of late but in a race with very little speed in it she should be on or near a comfortable pace and have every chance to finally break through.  #2 Carnival Lights, freshened since late June, retains Espinoza and should be a late factor.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this certainly isn’t a race we’re going to get heavily involved in.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Panther Creek; 4-Bully Pulpit; 5-Family Code

#3 Panther Creek crushed a M40000 field earlier this month and earned a nice figure in doing so; the Sherlock-trained gelding returns protected in this starter’s allowance affair and really won’t have to improve much at all to score right back.  The switch to Bejarano may mean that Perez, who rode ‘Creek to his easy victory, prefers #5 Family Code, so that maiden claiming winner from last month also must be considered a major player.  ‘Creek is faster on speed figures but ‘Code won a productive race and shows three workouts since his victory.  We’ll also toss in #4 Bully Pulpit, a state-bred maiden special weight winner here last month and a solid fit on figures.  He’s eligible for this race due to being entered for $50,000 and seems realistically spotted.  All three are capable of winning so we’ll spread the race and then have an extra ticket or two using Panther Creek on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Gavin Streetsense; 4-Letithappen; 10-On Fire

#2 Gavin Streetsense just missed when second in his debut while more than four clear of the rest; the Baltas-trained colt retains Bejarano and certainly has the pedigree to handle this one mile trip.  He’s been impressive in the morning since that race and can be expected to produce a major forward move.  Nice prospect, for sure.  #4 Letithappen was no match for runaway debut winner Young Brien in a fast, highly-rated maiden special weight sprint earlier this month but is another stretching out to a distance that should be within his range.  His speed figures are moving in the right direction for Bonde and Perez stays aboard.  #10 On Fire exits a tough race behind subsequent Saratoga stakes winner Exaggerator and has looked quite sharp in the morning since.  He may be quick enough to get over from his outside draw and be a strong pace factor throughout.,    These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; preference on top goes to Gavin Streetsense.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Buymeabond; 8-Persuasive Paul; 9-Hobbits Hero

This grass grab bag is yet another difficult event on a challenging Wednesday program with several possible contenders.  #8 Persuasive Paul was out of his element against Big John B last outing in June but he’s back where he belongs today and could fire a huge shot after a brief freshening.  A proven winner over this turf course and reunited with Bejarano, who won on him two races back, the Knapp-trained gelding can turn it on late and with good racing luck could produce the last run.  #3 Buymeabond, claimed in his last pair and now in the Mulhall barn, missed by a head in a similar spot last month and retains Nakatani.  He should be in the thick of things again today.  #9 Hobbits Hero gets the worst of the draw but has won four of his last six starts and can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position.  If Baze can negotiate a decent trip from the 9-hole this Mullins-trained gelding will be a strong factor throughout.  We’ll put Persuasive Paul on slightly on top and hope for the best.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Sadie Clare; 8-Kiss At Midnight; 10-Anita Marie

#8 Kiss at Midnight, a willing second in the Fleet Treat Stakes here last month, returns to the entry-level allowance ranks and catches a field that really doesn’t have a whole lot of early zip in it.  A repeat of her race before last – a highly-rated effort in a starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita – charts extremely well in this spot and she sports a nice, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs in recent weeks to have her spot on for a major effort.  #3 Sadie Clare has yet to break with her field; she was good enough to beat a modest maiden field last time out after appearing to blow her chance at the break but at this level she probably can’t make the same mistake.  The D’Amato-trained daughter of Grazen isn’t particularly fast on numbers but has plenty of room to improve with experience and Talamo has gotten to know her.  #10 Anita Marie remains protected by Puype despite a poor run off a long layoff in a similar event last month.  She continues to impress in the a.m., switches to Espinoza, and at one time was good enough to beat a field like this, so at 12-1 on the morning we’ll toss her in as well.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Diablo Caballero; 7-Worldwide; 8-Our Smooth Indian

We like the route-to-sprint angle for #5 Diablo Caballero and recognize that the Glatt-trained gelding is long overdue for a win.  The son of Tribal Rule also returns to the main track – perhaps his preferred surface – and at the extended sprint distance looks quite capable of wearing down the leaders in the final furlong.  We’ll put him on top but also include in our rolling exotics #7 Worldwide, in the money in both of his starts and second, beaten just a half-length, in a similar state-bred maiden special weight sprint here last month.  The son of Big Brown certainly has room for further improvement and Talamo, who had been the regular rider for Diablo Caballero, apparently prefers this Ellis-trained colt.  #8 Our Smooth Indian represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs; he’s bred to be quick (Tribal Rule) and debuts protected in a straight maiden event by a clever outfit.  He’d be in for a tag if he didn’t have at least some ability, or so the thinking goes. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Smooth Roller; 7-Motown Men

Undefeated #6 Smooth Roller jumps from the first-level allowance level into an overnight stakes and if he continues to improve with experience he can score again.  The Hard Spun gelding was very impressive breaking his maiden sprinting at Santa Anita and then came back to win a highly-rated and productive event over this track and distance earlier this month.  Smith takes over for Baze, who logically stays aboard #7 Motown Men, a runaway allowance winner here last month and the likely favorite at 2-1 on the morning line.  ‘Roller will be the better price (he’s 4-1 on the ML) but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Papa Frank; 3-Mister Exchange; 12-Player’s Charm

#3 Mister Exchange debuts at the bottom for Sadler and has trained well enough to be a strong factor in this type of race for a barn that has superior stats with first time starters.  We’ll give the Kafwain gelding top billing while also using #1 Papa Frank and #12 Player’s Charm in our rolling exotics.  Papa Frank has an improving pattern for Miller and represents inside speed, while Player’s Charm is stuck way outside and is a nine-racing maiden but is solid in the speed figure department and could fire a big shot after a two month vacation.