IT’S OFFICIAL

The August 11, 2015 Edition

Today we release our first weekly Breeders’ Cup Elite Eight rankings for all divisions with the exception of the two juvenile races on turf.   We’ll probably wait until the end of the Saratoga and Del Mar seasons to do that.

As you will notice, there are very few European-based runners included.  It’s not that we don’t believe the Euros won’t be sending over a major contingent – you know they will – but at this early juncture there’s no way of knowing who’s planning on coming.  For example, although none are included, we wouldn’t be surprised if the top four wagering interests in the Breeders’ Cup Turf wind up being European imports. Certainly the Mile will be well represented, as should the Filly and Mare turf.  We’ll be surprised if the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf aren’t both won by a European, but at this stage, who knows which of the 50 or so two-year-olds Aidan O’Brien has at his disposal will be put on a plane?

In compiling the list, there are a few of guidelines we chose to follow.  First, no horse will be listed twice; we’ll select the race we believe the horse is best suited for and that’s where the horse will be ranked.  Logical contenders that haven’t raced in several months will not be included unless they are ready to begin, or are currently engaged, in a regular work schedule.  The list doesn’t necessarily rate horses on pure merit but rather where he/she might project 10 weeks down the road under the specific conditions/distance of their assigned race.  

Finally, we suggest that you don’t get too hung up on the “this horse should be sixth instead of seventh” syndrome; at this early stage the list actually is designed to identify the main contenders more than provide a true pecking order.

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

  1.       AMERICAN PHAROAH (B. Baffert)                   

  2.       HONOR CODE (C. McGaughey)                                    

  3.       TONALIST (C. Clement)                                            

  4.       TEXAS RED (K. Desormeaux)                                          

  5.       FROSTED (K. McLaughlin)    

  6.    EFFINEX (J. Jerkens)                                   

  7.       COACH INGE (T. Pletcher)                                      

  8.       CONSTITUTION (T. Pletcher)                                 

American Pharoah gets the nod over Honor Code, but now that we know Shug’s colt can be just as effective going long as he is around one-turn, there could be a real showdown brewing.  Don’t sleep on Texas Red; if he can stay healthy his ceiling is extremely high.  Constitution has been away since winning the Donn-G1 in February, but he breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 Aug. 9 at Saratoga so he’s making progress.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1.       LIAM’S MAP (T. Pletcher)                                       

2.       DORTMUND (B. Baffert)                                       

3.       UPSTART (R. Violette, Jr.)                                             

4.       BRADESTER (E. Kenneally)                                         

5.       BAYERN (B. Baffert)                                               

6.       APPEALING TALE (P. Miller)                              

7.       WICKED STRONG (J. Jerkens)                            

8.       RACE DAY (T. Pletcher)                                            

Liam’s Map turned in an extraordinary performance in the Whitney but nine furlongs seems his limit.  This is where he fits best.  Dortmund could be superb at this distance if given the chance; he’s in training now but not really near a race.  Upstart isn’t Classic material yet and like Dortmund, might make a dynamite miler.  At the present time the same can be said for Bayern, the defending B.C. Classic winner who goes next in the Pacific Classic a week from Saturday while trying to regain last year’s form.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1.       RED RIFLE (T. Pletcher)                                           

2.       BIG BLUE KITTEN (C. Brown)                            

3.       SLUMBER-GB (T. Albertrani)                                     

4.       FORCE THE PASS (A. Goldberg)                              

5.       TWILIGHT ECLIPSE (M. Maker)                          

6.       WAR DANCER (W. Mott)                                    

7.       FINNEGANS WAKE (P. Miller)                          

8.       LEGENDARY-GB (N. Saville)                                               

Most of these have been around for a while and are what they are.  Force the Pass has the potential to top the list in due time, though it remains to be seen if he can reproduce his middle distance form at a marathon trip.  The Euros won’t have to send their best to dominate; against this group any solid Group-2 type runner will suffice.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1.       WISE DAN (C. Lopresti)                                          

2.       BOBBY’S KITTEN (C. Brown)                              

3.       MSHAWISH (T. Pletcher)                                       

4.       IRONICUS (C. McGaughey)                                             

5.       GABRIEL CHARLES (J. Mullins)                          

6.       PROSPECT PARK (C. Sise, Jr.)                               

7.       KING KREESA (D. Donk)                                     

8.       TALCO (J. Sadler)                                                  

We’re projecting both Wise Dan and Bobby’s Kitten – neither of whom have raced this year but are both in regular training – to be ready when the time comes.  Bobby’s Kitten won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint but his deep closing style likely won’t be as effective this year, as the race will be a furlong shorter.  Once again, no Europeans are included on the list though it’s realistic to expect that many will be pointed for the race in the coming weeks.  The status of Gabriel Charles is highly questionable after the Eddie Read winner underwent emergency colic surgery last week.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1.       PRIVATE ZONE (J. Navarro)                                  

2.       ROCK FALL (T. Pletcher)                                          

3.       WORK ALL WEEK (R. Brueggemann)                             

4.       SECRET CIRCLE (B. Baffert)                                   

5.       THE BIG BEAST (A. Dutrow)                                  

6.       HOLY BOSS (S. Asmussen)                                         

7.       FAVORITE TALE (G. Preciado)                                 

8.       MASOCHISTIC (R. Ellis)                                  

This race could be salty if everybody shows up healthy and ready.  Private Zone is a terrific sprinter/miler.   Rock Fall, though not as accomplished, has won six of seven lifetime.  Defending champion Work All Week appears to have regained his brilliant form.  Secret Circle was given the summer off after returning from his victory in Dubai and Baffert knows what it takes to win this race. 

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1.       LADY SHIPMAN (K. O'Connell)                                                

2.       THIEVES GUILD (J. Toner)                                 

3.       READY FOR RYE (T. Albertrani)                               

4.       UNDRAFTED (W. Ward)                                      

5.       AGELESS (A. Delacour)                                              

6.       SHORE RUNNER (J. Sharp)                               

7.       SOMETHING EXTRA (G. Cox)                       

8.       HOOTENANNY (W. Ward)                                  

You know fillies can win this race and the two listed on top are fast enough to do it.  Lady Shipman is undefeated in six career turf sprints at distances less than six furlongs.  Thieves Guild has been flawless in three lifetime turf sprints and gets better with each race.  Ready for Rye is perfect in two turf dashes and while he’s a tad slower on figures he has the ability to stalk and pounce if needed.  This is a race that almost assuredly will overfill as there are a bunch more with legitimate credentials to be considered.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1.       BEHOLDER (R. Mandella)                                          

2.       STOPCHARGINGMARIA (T. Pletcher)                                

3.       WEDDING TOAST (K. McLaughlin)                             

4.       UNTAPABLE (S. Asmussesn)                                       

5.       CURALINA (T. Pletcher)                                           

6.       I’M A CHATTERBOX (L. Jones)                         

7.       SHEER DRAMA (D. Fawkes)                                 

8.       LOVELY MARIA (L. Jones)                                

It appears Beholder will tackle the boys in the Pacific Classic; hope she does, it’ll give the race some spark.  We’ve got the older mares rated above the 3-year-old fillies at this time, but that could change in a hurry.  The race won’t overfill – it never does – and it never gets any support from the Euros.  It would be terrific if the eight listed above made it to the race in top form.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1.       HARD NOT TO LIKE (C. Clement)                                              

2.       TEPIN (M. Casse)                                                   

3.       EURO CHARLINE (M. Botti)                               

4.       KITTEN’S QUEEN (C. Brown)                             

5.       DISCREET MARQ (C. Clement)                              

6.       COFFEE CLIQUE (B. Lynch)                                

7.       STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (C. Brown)                      

8.       WATSDACHANCES (C. Brown)                          

We have one European listed – Euro Charline – because she’s owned by American interests and if in form she’ll probably be there.  The Team Valor International color bearer will be seeking her second straight win in the Beverly D. Stakes on Saturday.  This is another race that the Euros could easily dominate if they choose to support it similar to the way they usually do.  The Americans are a very good group but without Lady Eli there really isn’t a stick out among them.

BREEDERS CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1.       FANTASTIC STYLE (B. Baffert)                             

2.       DAME DOROTHY (T. Pletcher)                             

3.       CAVORTING (K. McLaughlin)                                       

4.       UNBRIDLED FOREVER (D. Stewart)                    

5.       JUDY THE BEAUTY (W. Ward)                           

6.       STONETASTIC (K. Breen)                                   

7.       LA VERDAD (L. Rice)                                        

8.       SUPER MAJESTY (J. Hollendorfer)                              

Fantastic Style missed the Test Stakes due to a pulled muscle and likely will await the Santa Anita autumn season.  Dame Dorothy was given a month off after her wins in the Humana Distaff and Bed O’ Roses Stakes and has resumed a regular work schedule for Pletcher.  Cavorting is starting to get real good at the right time; she can be devastating around one turn.  It may be that Unbridled Forever always has wanted to be late-running sprinter.  We love La Verdad but seven furlongs isn’t her best trip.  Who knows how good freaky Super Majesty is, or will be?

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1.       NYQUIST (D. O'Neill)                                                    

2.       YOUNG BRIAN (P. D'Amato)                                        

3.       BLAMEITONTHELAW (J. Sadler)                            

4.       MAGNA LIGHT (R. Rodriguez)                                       

5.       SWIPE (K. Desormeaux)                                                         

6.       MRAZEK (D. O'Neill)                                                    

7.       RIKER (N. Gonzalez)                                                          

8.       SMOKEY IMAGE (G. James)                                    

This is an exceptional group for this early in the year, but would it surprise anybody if the BC Juvenile winner hasn’t even started yet?  At this stage we’re basing our rankings strictly off sprint races but those listed above all have the pedigree to run on, and give every indication that they will.  The Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs could match the top three colts listed above.  You may recall American Pharoah won the race last year.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1.       OFF THE TRACKS (R. Rodriguez)                              

2.       RACHEL’S VALENTINA (T. Pletcher)                       

3.       SONGBIRD (J. Hollendorfer)                                        

4.       PRETTY N COOL (B. Baffert)                                      

5.       ONE LAST SHOT (B. Baffert)                                       

6.       CONSTELLATION (S. Asmussen)                             

7.       UNDISPUTED (S. Callaghan)                                     

8.       SURFSIDE TIARA (J. Hollendorfer)                               

Off the Tracks is very good, though she’s from the low profile barn of Roderick Rodriguez, who has won exactly one stakes race in his training career.  She’s it.  The daughter of Curlin brought a mere $50,000 as a yearling, so she represents the little guys.  On the opposite end of the spectrum is Rachel’s Valentina, who was so exciting in her debut and has all the makings of an exceptional two-turner.  Songbird won under wraps at Del Mar in her debut and was fast in doing so.  We’re eager to find out more about Pretty N Cool, who runs back tomorrow (Wednesday)  in a power packed edition of the Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar.

THIS WEEK’S DEL MAR “BLACK BOOK”

CHINA PRINCE (Aug. 9, 4^th race) – Was victimized by a lack of pace and was given way too much to do from the top of the stretch to the wire, winding up a non-threatening fifth beaten just under three lengths behind Atomic Rule in a $50,000 middle distance turf claimer.  He actually could have finished a tad closer but wasn’t knocked about by Nakatani in the final furlong when cause was obviously lost.  Now in the O’Neill barn, the veteran gelding certain can improve next time and shouldn’t be taken lightly on the one-level raise, especially if he catches a race-shape that favors his style.

KRISTI’S COPILOT (Aug. 6, 3^rd race) – Was making his first start in more than a year but lost whatever chance he might have had when breaking slowly in a first-level allowance five furlong sprint on grass won by Tribalist, winding up fifth, beaten just under five lengths.   He settled toward the rear of the pack, found room to rally inside and finished eagerly but without threatening in a fast race for the level.  The son of Lucky Pulpit has his share of tactical speed and should be capable of handling a route of ground if asked, so Jones has a few options.  He’s worth following closely against entry-level state-bred competition with this race under his belt.

MISS GIFTED (Aug 9, 6^th race) – Became very fractious in the gate and didn’t really have her mind of running when making just her second career start in competitive entry-level allowance race on turf, eventually winding up fifth, beaten four lengths.  The deep closer had no fractions to run at and still made up ground to the end, so the performance was considerably better than what appears on paper.  The Sadler-trained filly is worth following closely; if she can fix the mental aspect of the game she can develop into more than a useful sort. 

TRIBAL ROAR (Aug. 9, 5^th race) – Appeared well-meant in a maiden claiming juvenile dash but lost all chance at the start when stumbling badly at the break to fall far behind.  He was allowed to run mostly on his own courage thereafter while being taken care of by Gutierrez, and wound up seventh, beaten more than 12 lengths.  Brocklebank-trained colt has been something of a problem child so far in his brief career but he does have the kind of natural talent that can win a similar type of race on this circuit.  Definitely worth another chance next time.