AUGUST 5, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $121.50 investment

1st race: 1, 2, 4

2nd race: 5, 6, 9

3rd race: 1, 6, 8

4th race: 1, 7, 9

5th race: 5, 6, 10

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-No Silent; 2-Pat the Bear; 4-Embellishing Bob

It’s been two years since #1 No Silent last won a race, but this drop into the $50,000 claiming ranks may finally wake him up.  The veteran gelding didn’t run badly up north in his recent comeback against turf stakes sprinters and the past-classer should appreciate the softer company.  Always most dangerous as a late-running sprinter, he’ll need a ground-saving trip and some help up front to win, but the projected pace scenario should produce a favorable race-shape and he’s reunited with Prat, who has gotten run out of him in the past.  #2 Pat the Bear was beaten a neck in a very good effort in his only prior start on grass; the Miller-trained gelding is tackling older foes but gets in light and is a fit on speed figures.  #4 Embellishing Bob is an interesting Midwest invader and is worth including somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line.  His one prior race on turf was good at Fair Grounds and his stalking style should allow Perez to settle within striking range throughout.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two with No Silent on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Memphis; 6-Congregationalist; 9-Justification

#9 Justification moves up a notch to $10,000 but catches a weak field for the level so this group should be within his range.  The Carava-trained gelding finished a willing fourth earlier in the meeting in a fairly strong $8,000 event and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance.  Graham rides him back and should have this late-running sprinter doing his best work in the final furlong.  #5 Memphis has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and is also dropping to his lowest level while making a favorable rider switch.  He’s only 3-for-37 lifetime so he’s definitely not one to trust, but he’s a fit on figures and should draft into a nice second-flight position.  A bullet workout recently at Golden Gate Fields is another positive sign.  #6 Congregationalist, freshened since April, doesn’t have what you’d call a healthy work pattern but Cerin is fairly solid with layoff runners and this gelding is being reunited with Nakatani, who won on him three races back.  We’ll give a slight edge on top to Justification but use all three in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Book Thirty Four; 6-Market Notes; 8-Proud Captive

#8 Proud Captive broke his maiden over this track on the second day of the season and was extra game in doing so after being driven hard to press the pace from an extreme outside post.  That he was able to find something extra from the top of stretch to the wire showed us something; he’s trained well since for his new connections and we’re expecting a similar effort today in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer.  We’d prefer today if Perez allowed the Stute-trained gelding to settle early and produce the last run – we’re convinced that’s his best style – but he might be sharp enough to win as a presser, as well.  #1 Book Thirty Four broke his maiden vs. special weight state-bred foes three races back and then was badly overmatched in his next pair.  He’s realistically spotted today, gets the rail and Bejarano, and seems likely to return to his best form.  On pure numbers, he’s a fit.  #6 Market Notes ran well under these conditions when runner-up two races back and then was pitched too high splitting the field in a starter’s allowance affair here opening day.  Desormeaux stays aboard and knows him well.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with a very slight preference on top to Proud Captive.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Katy Drama; 7-Autumn Flower; 9-Ya Ya Girl

#7 Autumn Flower shows up for a tag for the first time and may have found her friends.  The class drop is realistic – she’s not quite up to beating straight maidens – and the daughter of Flower Alley looks capable of producing the last run against this modest group.  She was seventh of 12 over this course and distance last month and was actually finishing with interest.  A similar effort today should be good enough.  #1 Katy Drama should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip while going from the 12-hole to the rail, and really won’t have to improve much to win.  Baze stays aboard for Miller and most likely will be forwardly placed, if not on the lead.  #9 Ya Ya Girl is stuck outside again but retains Bejarano and ran well at about this level last time out when third after racing wide much of the way.  It’s tough to expect a good trip from this draw but if she can manage to get over, save some ground and get some cover, she should be in the thick of it.  Preference on top goes to Autumn Flower but we’ll include all three in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Audra; 6-I’ll Show Me; 10-Everlovin Woman

The gamble here is that there will be a pace meltdown that sets things up for those who have the ability to finish.  The three listed above appear to be likely candidates.  Debuting #5 Audra has trained nicely for D’Amato (solid with first-timers) and has shown in the morning the ability to finish up in her workouts.  At this extended sprint distance, Baze likely will take a hold early and allow this daughter of Rockport Harbor to come late.  There’s some value here at 6-1 on the morning line.  #6 I’ll Show Up had a run last year at Saratoga as a two-year-old and didn’t show much but she’s trained like a decent sort for Ellis and looks fit and ready.  A half-sister to champion Proud Spell, the daughter of Bernardini figures to be doing her best work late under Talamo.  #10 Everlovin Woman earned a strong figure in her debut a little more than a year ago – she rallied from far back to finish a promising second – but then failed to reproduce that effort in her second outing and was sent home, most likely due to a physical issue.  She’s trained reasonably well for her return for low profile connections and could easily outrun her morning line of 12-1.  She’s worth tossing in for a ticket or two.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Mrazek; 5-Viviendo El Sueno

#1 Mrazek lost a toughie when worn down in the final strides in a listed stakes at Los Alamitos last month but earned an impressive speed figure even in defeat (while more than seven lengths clear of the others) and will lay over this field if he can reproduce that effort.  He’s back with state-bred foes today and seems certain to be a short price.  The only concern is the inside post – he’ll have to break cleanly – and whether or not he’ll have to cope with a dead rail that has been prevalent throughout much of this meeting.  #5 Viviendo El Sueno may be worth using as a saver.  The Hollendorfer-trained gelding won at first asking while showing some grit - he was between horses on the pace and reached back for more when it was needed - and has trained nicely since that race.  He may have a bit of upside that most of the others don’t.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-Tara’s Tango

By any metric, #8 Tara’s Tango looks like a complete standout in this entry-level allowance race and likely will go off at considerably less than her 8/5 morning line.  The Hollendorfer-trained filly was an unlucky loser when nosed out in the Summer Oaks-G2 at Santa Anita last time out and has trained superbly since.  This group really should be easy pickings.  Let’s make her a short price, no value rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Divine Tale; 3-Take It Easyplease; 4-Avo

#2 Divine Tale is a late-running sprinter whose style should be much more effective on this track than it was at Santa Anita.  In the money in her last three but a beaten choice in her last pair, the Drysdale-trained mare retains Baze and gets her easiest chance yet.  #4 Avo puts blinkers on for the first time while dropping from $40,000 to $20,000 and may have a bit of improving to do, so you may want to toss her in somewhere.  #3 Take It Easyplease also is dropping sharply to the bottom for Miyadi and might be able to produce a forward move, although she’s below average on speed figures. She, too, probably worth consideration as a saver.