AUGUST 23, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $6 investment

1st race: 3

2nd race: 1, 3, 4

3rd race: 5

4th race: 1, 7

5th race: 2, 12

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 3-Newfound Gold

#3 Newfound Gold is listed at 8/5 on the morning line and almost certainly will be even money or less while seeking his fifth win in his last six starts for new trainer Hess.  Claimed out of his last race – a nearly eight length romp that earned a career top speed figure – the Hess-trained gelding returns at the same price and will need to bounce pretty badly to miss this chance.  It’s certainly possible, if not probable, that he’ll regress somewhat after leaving the Miller barn but perhaps not enough to get him beat.  Use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Storming Candy; 3-Shut the Box; 4-Miss Big Stuff

Seven juveniles meet in this six furlong maiden race; three are trained by Clifford Sise and two come from the Peter Miller barn.  #1 Storming Candy, a $250,000 yearling by Candy Ride, debuts from the rail, and while his workout times aren’t out of the ordinary he has done everything asked and acts like a nice prospect.  He’s clearly the most highly regarded of the Sise trio.  #3 Shut the Box has a steady, healthy work tab for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and should be fit enough for a major effort, while #4 Miss Big Stuff faces the boys after failing to draw in from the also-eligible list yesterday.  We’ll prefer Storming Candy on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Super Majesty

#5 Super Majesty looks like another very short price standout; the unbeaten filly is 6/5 on the morning line and probably will be closer to 2/5 (or less) at post time.  A runaway winner of both of her starts sprinting, the daughter of Super Saver should be even better going long.  She’s a free bingo square single in rolling exotic play but otherwise unplayable.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Mothernaturespell; 7-Stealth Drone

#7 Stealth Drone lost her best chance at the start in a tougher spot opening weekend but seems sure to improve today in this softer affair.  A repeat of either of her two previous races, including her victory against $40,000 sellers in May, would be good enough to beat this below par field.  #1 Mothernaturespell, first off the claim for Hess, is lightly-raced, eligible to improve, and switches to Bejarano.  If she leaves running from the rail, the daughter of Spellbinder will be on or near the lead and have every chance.  We’ll give a very slight edge on top to Stealth Drone but use both in our rolling exotics.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Ms K J; 12-Divine Tale

#12 Divine Tale has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and is long overdue for a win.  Certainly not one to trust – she’s failed as the favorite in each of her last three starts – the Drysdale-trained mare nonetheless falls into that “must use” category as she lands the cozy outside post, retains Baze, and has speed figures that are more than good enough to win.  Her morning line odds of 9/2 seem fair but we suspect she’ll go lower.  #2 Ms. K J, freshened since May, ran well when second at this level last time out, returns with Bejarano, and has a solid five furlong drill over this track a couple of weeks back.  She could be on the lead here.  We’ll slightly prefer Divine Tale on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Mr T Bird; 7-Home School; 9-Chips All In

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This is a typical grass grab bag for mid-grade claimers that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll use three and hope to get by.  #3 Mr T Bird was a tad rusty in his recent comeback but didn’t run badly from a poor post and seems sure to move forward today for Hollendorfer.  The switch to Prat is a positive move, and in a field with plenty of pace, this veteran gelding should have every chance to produce the last run.  #9 Chips All In stretches out to a mile and the trip certainly is within his range. The Brocklebank-trained veteran missed by a neck vs. a slightly stronger group sprinting on turf earlier this month and should run at least as well today.  At 10-1 on the morning line, he offers good price value.  #7 Home School is a dangerous first-time gelding from the O’Neill barn; he’s been freshened since June, shows up in a claimer for the first time and switches to Bejarano.  He’ll be on or near the lead throughout. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Lily Pod; 6-Ponder Lea; 10-Finest City

#10 Finest City ran lights out at 33-1 in her debut, settling for second behind hot shot Gloryzapper while four clear of the rest in a fast, highly-rated sprint here opening week.  She’s trained extremely well since – a 47 3/5 workout was the fastest of 33 on August 11 – and lands the comfortable outside draw while retaining Nakatani.  #3 Lily Pond has steadily improving form and could produce another forward move today with the addition of blinkers.  #6 Ponder Lea has shown some talent in the morning for Sadler and may be worth some consideration as well.  Strong preference goes to Finest City but we’ll use all three in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Pure Tactics; 2-Talco; 4-Bal a Bali

#4 Bal a Bali ran below his true form when a disappointing fifth (and last) in the Shoemaker Mile-G1 but after a two month-plus freshening should be able to bounce back with his best effort.  A solid series of recent workouts appears to have him primed and ready.  #2 Talco just defeated Bal a Bali after finishing behind that one in the American Stakes at Santa Anita in early May.  They’re hard to separate.  #1 Pure Tactics won the Wickerr Stakes over this course and distance earlier this meeting and must be given a look right back despite the tougher company.  He’s reunited with Smith, who has won on him in the past.  Preference goes to Bal a Bali – his best race should be good enough – but we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Sweetrayofsunshine; 4-Gloryzapper

#4 Gloryzapper won at first asking like a quality filly and looks tough right back on the raise for D’Amato.  She’s a fit on figures and has the perfect stalking style for seven furlongs.  #3 Sweetrayofsunshine was visually very impressive winning her comeback with a legit number.  The short rest (11 days) is a concern but her record (15 starts, eight wins) demands respect.  Preference goes to Gloryzapper but we’ll the double the race in rolling exotic play.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-With a Twist; 6-Redressthebalance; 8-Zuzu’s Petals

#3 With a Twist is an intriguing Midwest invader for the Hess/Desormeaux team.  A veteran mare with a terrific overall turf record (first or second in 11 of 19 starts on grass), she does her best running from off the pace and has trained like she’s fit and ready for her first outing since May.  #6 Redressthebalance, second off a layoff for Kruljac, drops a notch and should be a late factor if given the patient ride she prefers.  #8 Zuzu’s Petals makes her first start on turf and if she can reproduce her dirt form on the lawn, she can be threat as well,  Realistically spotted after a starter’s allowance win at Los Alamitos, she retains Smith and should be forwardly placed throughout.  At 10-1 on the morning line, she’s worth a ticket or two.