AUGUST 19, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $27 investment

1st race: 2, 4, 7

2nd race: 3, 6, 8

3rd race: 4, 5

4th race: 2, 7, 8

5th race: 3

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Smooth Talker; 4-No Tricks for Jack; 7-Norastone

#2 Smooth Talker has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and should be tough right back following a sharp score against a bottom-rung field over this track and distance last month.  Van Dyke knows her well and will have her doing her best work late.  #7 Norastone just finished third to Smooth Talker in but could make it closer today; she lands the cozy outside post and continues to look sharp in the morning for Mulhall.  #4 No Tricks for Jack, first off the claim for Diodoro (very strong 26% with this angle) has won 15 races during her career and is more than capable of bouncing back today.  Three easy workouts since her last race should have her on edge.  We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Smooth Talker on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Seaward Cottage; 6-Cadet Roni; 8-Analysis Paralysis

This is an intriguing race for maiden $50,000 claiming fillies and mares; each of the three listed above have a right to be considerably better than the form indicates.  #3 Seaward Cottage flashed some early speed in her debut against straight maidens here opening day but faded after a half and then propped and bolted entering the stretch.  She has trained quite well since and faces a much softer group while retaining Desormeaux, so we’re expecting a much better effort today while recognizing the possibility that she’s a head case.  But at 10-1 on the morning line the daughter of Dunkirk is worth another chance.  #6 Cadet Roni, a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, first-time-in-a-claimer play, is another likely to come to life against this level of competition.  She has back numbers that are better than par for this level, adds blinkers for the first time, and switches to Prat.  #8 Analysis Paralysis chased straight maidens here last year and launches a comeback for D’Amato with a strong series of workouts that indicates she’s likely a better type this time around.  This outfit is powerful with layoff runners and go-to rider Baze takes the call.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge to the best price (Seeward Cottage).

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Image of Joplin; 5-Follow Me Crev

#5 Follow Me Crev is solid in the speed figure department and continues to improve with experience.  A least 3-wide throughout with no cover in his most recent runner-up effort, the son of Quality Run makes a major switch to Talamo today and seems certain to produce a forward move.  He’s unproven at this mini-marathon trip but he’s a one-paced grinding type so there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle it.  #4 Image of Joplin will very likely be the controlling speed and he’s shown the ability to be competitive in these three-turn affairs in the past.  If not pressured, the Chew-trained gelding will take this field a very long way.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Follow Me Crev probably worth an extra ticket or two.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-War Destiny; 7-Prodigious; 8-Clever Move

This is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 abbreviated claimer is filled with question marks.  After breaking his maiden over an off track in game fashion last month, recent maiden claiming winner #2 War Destiny returns in a proper spot.  The Sadler-trained gelding earned a pretty good speed figure when beating maidens here last month – though what effect the sloppy surface had is unknown - and has trained well since, so another forward move is possible.  Gonzalez stays aboard.  #7 Prodigious squandered a perfect trip against a stronger starter’s allowance field recently but we suspect he needed the outing so improvement is likely from this Hess-trained gelding against this softer group.  #8 Clever Move, away since January and returning in a logical spot for a barn that has strong stats with comebackers, has trained well enough to be fit and ready and is a fit on figures.  You have to toss him at 12-1 on the morning line.  This is a somewhat treacherous race – we don’t really trust anything – so best advice is to play cautiously and use as many as you can afford to.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Big Move

#3 Big Move stretches out for the first time and should be at least as effective routing as she’s been around one turn.  Her numbers are rising, she has the pedigree to stay, and she continues to impress in the a.m. for Yakteen.  We doubt she needs the lead to win and if #2 Vegas Bound is sent from inside, Bejarano could easily assume a stalker’s position. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Sugar Buzz; 6-Frac Candy; 8-Shot in the Dark

This maiden claiming sprint for juveniles requires a spread, so we’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #2 Sugar Buzz is a first timer by Include from the Dollase barn and has shown enough in his workouts to indicate he has the kind of ability that can win in this league.  Maldonado has gotten to know him in the morning and should have this gelding within striking range throughout.  #6 Frac Candy, in the money in both starts against tougher foes, is back sprinting and returns to dirt for the Desormeaux brothers.  He appears the most dangerous of the known element.  #8 Shot in the Dark, a first timer from the very clever Miyadi barn, has displayed better speed than his workout times would indicate and is a big number on the morning line at 12-1.  He’s worth including in rolling exotic play.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 6-Distinctiv Passion

#6 Distinctiv Passion really should be too quick for this group and on pure form outclasses his rivals as well.  An exceptional turf sprinter, especially at this abbreviated trip, the Bonde-trained horse exits the Bing Crosby S.-G1 and instead of being throttled down today he’ll likely will be allowed to exploit his obvious early pace advantage.  A two-time winner over this course and distance in the past, the son of With Distinction is a straight play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near his morning line of 2-1.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Ghost of Navigator; 5-Aaron Again

This is a weak race for bottom-rung routers and anything could happen.  We’ll use two, but if you can afford to spread, go for it.  #2 Ghost of Navigator was victimized by a slow start and then didn’t get the best of rides when third in a similar spot two weeks ago.  He’s a second-off-the-claim for Avila; let’s hope Perez, who rides him back, employs patient tactics as he moved way, way too soon while very wide last time.  #5 Aaron Again, a distant second at Los Alamitos in a race that earned a strong number, should fit well with these and really won’t have to improve much to win.  The Cerin-trained gelding likely will be a strong pace factor under Nakatani and if he can make a clear early lead he could get very brave.