AUGUST 2, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 3, 10

2nd race: 1, 3, 6

3rd race: 4, 7

4th race: 7, 8

5th race: 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Nite Delite; 10-Blue Cilantro

There’s not much depth to this maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares and a little will go a long way.  10-Blue Cilantro showed a bit of spark when second in a M20000 dash at Los Alamitos in her debut and has plenty of room to improve; she was claimed out of the race by Miller (strong 23% with this angle) and is raised in class off that effort in a show of confidence.  You have to use her at 5-1 on the morning line, but we’ll give slight preference to #3 Nite Delite, an Art Sherman-trained class dropper with the kind of early speed that makes her very dangerous in this league.  She switches to Bejarano and has a healthy work pattern since her debut.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Miss Ellany; 3-Frandontjudge; 6-Smart N Dreamy

This is a $32,000 turf claimer restricted to fillies and mares which have not won a race in 2015.  #6 Smart N Dreamy fits the conditions perfectly – she’s only had one start this year – and the Baltas-trained mare lands Bejarano while returning to her claim and winning level.  She can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking spot.  #3 Frandotjudge, claimed her last pair and now in the Hollendorfer barn, hasn’t had any prior success at this trip; however, she might display considerable improvement for these connections.  We’re expecting her to at least hit the board.  #1 Miss Ellany looks like the controlling speed if she wants to be; the Sadler-trained mare has been freshened since early May, shows a steady, consistent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Smart N Dreamy on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-London Legacy; 7-Tough Sunday

This is a strong state-bred first-level allowance sprint with two main contenders. #7 Tough Sunday may have been a tad short when second in his recent comeback but the Miyadi-trained colt, with a recent five furlong bullet work over the track, should be primed for a major forward move.  Baze stays aboard.  #4 London Legacy has an improving pattern and is worth including in rolling exotic play as well.  The Sherlock-trained gelding is solid in the speed figure department and a repeat of either one of his last two starts puts him right there. 

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Gunslinger; 8-Shanty Irish

The Pick-6 begins with a bottom-rung maiden claiming miler that on paper looks like a complete raffle.  #7 Gunslinger chased an infinitely tougher field in his racing debut and was left for dead after producing a weak bid on the turn.  Due to the strength of the race, he actually earned an okay number despite the margin of defeat (16 lengths) and we’re expecting the Callaghan-trained colt to be much fitter today.  Combined with the enormous class drop, the son of Indian Charlie looks very well-meant at 5-1 on the morning line.  #8 Shanty Irish has been chasing straight maiden company on turf without any success; he’s dropping to the bottom, returning to dirt, and lands Bejarano so he’s worth including as well.  These are the two we’ll prefer; however, big tickets players surely will opt to use several more.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Gimme D Lute

#6 Gimme Da Lute simply lays over this field but at 4/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with him.  Winner of the Affirmed Stakes and the Los Alamitos Futurity in his last two starts over a distance of ground, he shortens to an extended sprint today while landing the cozy outside post, and has proven to be just as effective around one turn.  #4 Grazen Sky looks like the next horse and if you’d like to save on a ticket or two he’d be the one, but if Gimme Da Lute runs his race he should have no worries and must be considered a logical rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Cervaro; 9-I’ll Wrap It Up; 10-Follow Me Crev

This is a starter’s allowance race written for horses that broke their maiden for a tag and haven’t done much of anything else, so there’s a lot of “one-for’s” in the field.  #10 Follow Me Crev is “only” one-for-eight lifetime, not bad compared to most of the others, and he exits by far the best race, having finished a distant fourth behind Gimma Da Lute in the Los Alamitos Derby in his last start.  The Cerin-trained gelding is re-equipped with blinkers (he wore them in his debut) and returns to turf; a repeat of his race before last when third in a straight $50,000 claimer points him out a strictly the one to beat, outside post and all.  #6 Cervaro is a first-off-the-claim for Puype and may be the most dangerous of the deep closers, while #9 I’ll Wrap It Up, in the money in his last three, is a noted non-winner (he’s 1-for-23) but seems likely to at least hit the board again. Preference goes to Follow Me Crev but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Blameitonthelaw; 9-Who’s Out

Maiden juveniles sprint five and one-half furlongs with two really catching our eye.  #3 Blameitonthelaw, a first-timer by Blame from the Sadler stable, was given a strong foundation of drills at San Luis Rey Downs prior to be shipped to the big track.  His five furlong gate drill last week was impressive and this barn always has been superior with first time starters.  #9 Who’s Out was impressive at the Ocala March sale preview session and has done nothing wrong since joining the Hollendorfer barn.  He worked like a fast colt at Los Alamitos, gets Prat, and should have clear sailing from his outside draw.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Artistic Charm

#1 Artistic Charm is really starting to get good, and we expect the Callaghan-trained Euro-import to continue her winning ways.  Drawn perfectly inside while retaining Bejarano, the English-bred filly added blinkers and earned a big figure in defeating a first-level group with authority in late June at Santa Anita.  She’s held her edge in the morning since and just earned a number that is better than par for this level.  At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-With the Breeze; 5-Flat Gone; 12-Go First

This nw-2 $16,000 claiming sprint looks completely wide, so we suggest you spread as deeply as your budget allows.  #3 With the Breeze didn’t appear to handle the sloppy track here opening weekend and faded after flashing good early speed.  He returns at the same level for Belvoir, retains Prat, fits on numbers and is lightly-raced with room to improve.  #5 Flat Gone is one-for-21 lifetime and is clearly not one to trust, but he should at least get a piece of it based on pure speed figures.  Bejarano stays aboard for Baltas and should have this gelding running on late.  #12 Go First shows up in a claimer for the first time and will have clear sailing outside.  Freshened since May, he’s most effective as a late-running sprinter and if he can receive a good trip/ride from bug boy Lattanzio, the D’Amato-trained gelding has a chance for a mild surprise.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring With the Breeze on top.