AUGUST 13, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $40.50 investment

1st race: 4

2nd race: 2, 5, 6

3rd race: 5, 9, 10

4th race: 4, 7, 10

5th race: 3. 4. 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Single: 4-Triple Vanilla

The opener is the type of race that small ticket players can take a shot and single, or big ticket players can buy; there are just too many question marks to get a true handle on it.  We’d rather not invest too much money here, so we’ll employ the former strategy.   #4 Triple Vanilla appears interesting and may come up a live item.  The daughter of Tiz Wonderful has a solid series of drills – nothing spectacular but solid for this level – and hails from a barn that excels with first-time starters.  With Hess’ main man Desormeaux aboard, this filly seems as good as any and better than most.  Though this isn’t much more than an educated guess, we’ll make her a rolling exotic single at 4-1 on the morning line.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Chia Love; 5-Little Emma; 6-Summer Veil

#2 Chia Love drew the dreaded rail sprinting last time out and never got in the fray, but Baltas keeps her at this level and stretches her out, both positive signs.  Bejarano stays aboard – another plus – and the daughter of Bluegrass Cat should improve a ton today.  #5 Little Emma comes off a nice score sprinting vs. similar earlier this month and has the pedigree to handle the extra ground.  We’ll assume that she’ll be part of the pace throughout.  #6 Summer Veil removes blinkers for the first time in her career and drops out of a tougher starter’s allowance race, though she remains above her claim level.  She may be most effective on the lead and in her second start off a layoff the Kitchingman-trained filly should be set for a major effort.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Chia Love on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Strraight N Strong; 9-Imflatoutsweet; 10-Hit List

#9 Imflatoutsweet finished a distant third in a fast, highly-rated sprint in her debut and was flattered when the winner, Pretty N Cool, came back to take yesterday’s Sorrento Stakes.  She sports a bullet five furlong workout in 59 3/5 seconds (fastest of 86) since that race, retains Bejarano, and stretches out to a distance and surface that she should have no issues with.  #5 Straight N Strong, a decent third sprinting in her debut, hails from a stable that excels with second-time starters so we’ll assume this daughter of Quality Road will move forward.  She, too, shouldn’t be inconvenienced by two turns or turf.  First-time starter #10 Hit List has done some good work in the morning for Callaghan, who won with a debut runner yesterday under similar conditions, and this filly looks plenty fit and ready.  A $170,000 OBS June purchase, she breezed a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds, the fastest in the preview session, and offers long shot value at 10-1 on the morning under top turf jockey Prat.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while recognizing that Imflatoutsweet is the logical top pick and likely favorite.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Love de Car; 7-Mighty Brown; 10-Hidden Zensation

This looks like a stronger than par race for a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint and requires a bit of a spread.  #10 Hidden Zensation adds blinkers for the first time, lands the cozy outside post for new trainer Miyadi (strong stats with first-off-claims) and reportedly looked very sharp in a recent workout.  He was never in the picture when fifth of 10 last time out, but a slow start from a tough inside post cost him whatever chance he might have had.  Conditions are much more favorable today and Talamo takes the mount.  #7 Mighty Brown, a strong second in a similar race here last month, retains Graham and really won’t have to improve much to win.  #4 Love de Car seems to be rounding into top shape now and in his third start off a layoff should be primed for a big effort.  Perez should have him a good stalking spot.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Hidden Zensation on top.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Intoxicating Move; 4-Fantastic Mizz; 6-Soresca

#6 Soresca ran much better than the line will show when unplaced in a $40,000 optional claimer last time out; she was claimed back by D’Amato and shortens to her preferred trip, a flat mile.  The Irish-bred mare can really turn it on late but needs racing luck, something she had none of in her last outing.  Baze will give her the patient ride she requires and if a decent pace materializes she can produce the last run.  At 6-1 on the morning line she offers excellent price value.  #3 Intoxicating Move, freshened since March but training well for her return, likes this turf course and gives D’Amato a second bullet to fire.  Nakatani has won with her in the past and will have this daughter of Milwaukee Brew doing her best work in the final furlong.  #4 Fantastic Mizz is most effective on the lead and if not pressured early could take this group a long way.  However, she’s much more likely to finish second or third than win, as is her norm.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but have extra tickets using Soresca on top.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Sooner Time; 5-Gypsy’s Rule

#5 Gypsy’s Rule and #1 Sooner Time were first-out winners here last month and both have a right to win right back, though Sooner Time was a bit faster in the speed figure department.  However, she’s stuck on the rail and will need to break cleanly and be used early to gain good position.  Gypsy’s Rule didn’t beat a whole lot in her debut but did it the right way and retains Desormeaux.  We’ll give ‘Rule a very slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Rainbow North; 8-Unusually Green

The first thing you notice about this middle distance turf event is the total lack of early speed that could compromise a deep closer like #8 Unusually Green, who would otherwise seem quite logical after finishing strongly to be second, beaten a half-length, in a similar affair on opening day.  We’ll include ‘Green in our rolling exotics but prefer #6 Rainbow North on top.  The Hendricks-trained gelding switches to Talamo and has the type of tactical speed that will heavily promote his chances in what figures to be slowly-run race.  He was a little too far back when second in a similar state-bred allowance affair last month and was too late; today we expect him to be on or near the lead throughout.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 9-Swiss Cheese; 10-Guybrush

This woefully weak bottom-rung maiden claimer should be won by one of the newcomers, as those that have already raced are thoroughly uninspiring.  #9 Swiss Cheese has worked well for the Hess/Desormeaux team and this stable – as pointed out in our analysis of today’s first race – has superior stats with debut runners.  ‘Cheese is bred to win early – he’s a son of Swiss Yodeler – and appears to have very little to beat.  #10 Guybrush is another dangerous first-timer; the Puype-trained gelding has shown enough in the a.m. to indicate he has enough ability to act in this league and gets Talamo.  Preference on top goes to Swiss Cheese but both should be included in your rolling exotics.