AUGUST 12, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $36 investment

1st race: 4, 8

2nd race: 3, 6

3rd race: 1, 3, 5

4th race: 9, 11, 12

5th race: 1, 2

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Gusto’s Gal; 8-Wish I Understood

#8 Wish I Understood has an improving pattern for Baffert, lands the cozy outside post and takes her third consecutive drop in class.  Garcia should be able to control this race from a stalking/pressing position at what should be an underlay price.  #4 Gusto’s Gal had a rough trip in her debut from the rail but finished eagerly when clear and seems sure to improve with experience and blinkers for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters.  At the very worst she’s the second horse in the race and is worth using in rolling exotic play.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: #3 Cindy’s Secret; 6-Desert Steel

#3 Cindy’s Secret and #6 Desert Steel exit the same race – a similar state-bred allowance sprint for fillies and mares – and seem the logical two main contenders after finishing two-three when they last met July 19.  We’ll prefer Desert Steel today; she may have been a tad short in her first start in three months and we’re expecting a forward move from the Callaghan-trained filly, who may have a bit more upside than her chief rival.  ‘Secret can be tough on the lead or from off the pace, retains Desormeaux, and is a “must use” as well.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Lucky Student; 3-Popalicious; 5-Magic Lily

#1 Lucky Student, freshened since mid-June, returns on the one-level raise for Spawr, a positive sign, and she continues to look good in the morning so we’ll assume she’s primed for a big effort.  The rail post is no help but she has only one way to go anyway – on the lead – so if she breaks running she could shake looks and get very brave.  #3 Popalicious is genuine and consistent New Mexico invader with a strong closing kick and speed figures that put her in the hunt.  First or second in 16 of 25 career starts, the Dominguez-trained mare is a “must use.”  #5 Magic Lily, first off the claim for Martin (33% with strong flat-bet profit with this angle), gets Bejarano and has trained nicely over this track for her first start since May.  She should be pressing the pace throughout.  We’ll give a very slight edge on top to Lucky Student while going three-deep in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 9-Tribal All Star; 11-Rush of Day; 12-Bella Breeze

This bottom-rung maiden claimer requires a spread; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #12 Bella Breeze has the blinkers off angle we like so much;  she’s also a first-off-the-claim for Periban and sports a bullet 58 2/5 workout since changing barns.  Comfortably drawn outside, she should have every chance on the lead or from a pace-stalking spot.  #11 Rush of Day returns off a nine month layoff minus the blinkers she wore last year and has trained well enough for G. Stute to be fit and ready at this level.  She’s a fit on numbers and a strong contender.  #9 Tribal All Star, a first time starter by Tribal Rule from the Puype barn (capable with debut runners), shows up cheap and may have her problems but her works indicate the kind of speed and ability that makes her dangerous in this league.  At 8-1 on the morning she may offer good price value in an open affair.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Hollywood Don; 2-Rideo

#2 Rideo and #1 Hollywood Don both exit the July 26 race that offered identical conditions to today’s event – one mile on turf for maiden two-year-olds – and both displayed enough promise to expect a forward move today.  Rideo finished fourth while enjoying a good ground-saving trip while Hollywood Don was forced to take the overland route throughout and may have run every bit as good, if not better, when winding up seventh.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but at the price – he’s 6-1 on the morning line – Hollywood Don certain offers more value.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 7-Yiannis

#7 Yiannis, freshened since finishing fourth to Kentuckian in the highly-rated Laz Barrera Memorial Stakes at Santa Anita in May, returns for Sadler in a second-level allowance sprint against older horses and we’re thinking he’s going to fire a big shot off the bench.  The son of Midshipman is a stakes winner – having captured the listed San Pedro two runs back - and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners.  Additionally, he gets a very favorable pace scenario.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line odds of 5/2.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Pretty N Cool

#7 Pretty N Cool earned a giant speed figure in her runaway debut maiden win for Baffert and should come right back to dominate this graded stakes field from her cozy outside post position.  She’s trained quite well since her win and has plenty of upside.  Quick but certainly not speed crazy, the daughter of Scat Daddy looks like a logical short price rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Arcature; 7-Handful of Stripes

#7 Handful of Stripes is improving with racing and with another forward move today should be set to earn his diploma.  A bullet workout since his last race is encouraging and Bejarano rides him back for Stidham.  He’ll have a decided edge over the others, having already been the trip over the course.  #2 Arcature has trained like a very nice prospect for Callaghan and although giving away plenty in experience, the son of Archarcharch has the kind of foundation that should allow a major effort first crack out of the box.  We’ll include him in our rolling exotics at 6-1 on the morning line.