AUGUST 29, 2015 – SARATOGA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S $2 PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

SARATOGA - $48 investment

1st race: 1, 8

2nd race: 6, 8, 9

3rd race: 3

4th race: 2, 8, 9, 10

5th race: 3

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (11:45 ET) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Belisarius; 8-Grey Wizard

The opener is a first-level 11-furlong mini-marathon that doesn’t appear particularly inspiring.  #8 Grey Wizard seems to be improving with racing; if the lightly-raced son of Kitten’s Joy can produce another forward move for Chad Brown he can score again after breaking his maiden in solid fashion in June at Belmont Park.  He’s grinder-type without a massive turn of foot but he’s proven at the distance and with just four prior starts probably has a bit more upside then his main competitors.  #1 Belisarius has been knocking at the door at this condition ever since arriving from Ireland more than a year ago.  He’s been close but hasn’t yet been able to break through, and with just one win to go along with 10 seconds and thirds, he’s developed a reputation as a bit of a hanger.  We’ll throw him but recognize that at 2-1 on the morning line he offers little in the way of value.

SECOND RACE (12:18 ET) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Attraction; 8-Virga; 9-Ready Dancer

This maiden sprint for juveniles is loaded with newcomers from top stables with fancy pedigrees and solid work tabs.  The three listed above are preferred, but if you feel the need to go deeper by all means do so.  #8 Virga is bred to win early (Street Boss) and shows an impressive series of drills for a stable that is solid with first-time starters.  He looks cranked up and ready to go and at 5-1 on the ML he’s worth strong consideration in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.  #9 Ready Dancer has the benefit of two prior runs and is improving with racing for Pletcher; he’s adding blinkers today and is strictly the one to beat.  #6 Attraction has a pedigree (Blame) that suggests he probably wants more than six furlongs to be at his best, but he does sport a healthy work tab for a solid outfit and at 8-1 on the morning line seems worthy of inclusion as well.

THIRD RACE (12:51 ET) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Tango Time

#3 Tango Time was very well-meant in her U.S. debut last month at Belmont Park but walked out of the gate, became extremely rank behind very slow early splits, and then, after producing a serious bid inside the furlong pole, flattened out late.  Castellano stays aboard for Pletcher and we expect this talented Irish import to produce a forward move in this entry-level middle distance turf for fillies and mares.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single in field containing nothing else that catches our eye.

FOURTH RACE (1:25 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Conquest Nitro; 8-Wild Man; 9-Eternal Bird; 10-Tale of S’avall

This is a split of the second race and appears equally wide open.  We’ll use four in our rolling exotics but this is another event that might require a substantial spread.  #8 Wild Man is a half-brother to the very fast Muppet Man and out of a half-sister to the brilliantly quick Hot Novel so this Pulpit colt has a right to win early and his works indicate he’s fit and ready for Asmussen.  We’ll prefer him on top and if he’s anywhere near his morning line of 6-1 we’ll use him in the straight pool as well.  #2 Conquest Nitro has finished in the money in both of his starts, most recently second in a similar event here earlier this month.  He probably can’t beat a real good maiden on this circuit; there may (or may not) be one in here.  #9 Eternal Bird is certainly not bred to sprint (by Tiznow from a half-sister to Birdstone) but he’s done plenty of good work in the a.m. for Brown, who excels with, among most other things, first time starters.  We’ll use him.  #10 Tale of S’avall has a series of workouts that indicate speed and ability and this son of Tale of Ekati offers legitimate price value at 10-1 on the morning line.

FIFTH RACE (2:00 ET) – GRADE: A-

Single: 3-America’s Kitten

#3 America’s Kitten showed a considerable amount of promise in his debut – he was fifth in a race common to many of these last month – and with that effort under his belt the son of Kitten’s Joy should produce a significant forward move today.  Brown’s maidens click at 32% in their second start and this colt, after finding his best stride late and galloping out past the wire in front of the rest of the pack, should be a lot more serious today.  Castellano got know him last time and stays aboard; at 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make this colt a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:35 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Sheer Drama; 4-Stopchargingmaria

It’s pretty hard to pick against #4 Stopchargingmaria at Saratoga; she’s won four of five at the Spa and there’s every reason to believe she’ll reproduce her best form again today. Proponents of weight as a key handicapping factor will point to the fact that ‘Maria just defeated #6 Untapable in the Shuvee earlier this month by a length while getting three lbs.; today they’re at equal weights so the pendulum might swing to Untapable.  Weight shift or not, we’re sticking with ‘Maria.  #2 Sheer Drama has been first or second in 13 of 18 career starts and always lays her body down; she should be in striking position throughout in a race that figures to be slowly run early.  You could easily use all three contenders in your rolling exotics and be safe, or take a stand and choose one; we’ll split the difference by preferring Stopchargingmaria on top and then have a ticket or two saving with Sheer Drama.

SEVENTH RACE (3:10 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Merry Meadow; 6-Dame Dorothy; 7-Unbridled Forever

This is a legitimate Grade 1 sprint for older fillies and mares.  With the scratching of #2 La Verdad, this race's projected pace scenario takes on a considerably softer look, which certainly figures to help #3 Merry Meadow.   Originally we had left her off our rolling exotic tickets but we'll include her now to replace La Verdad.  Merry Meadow, freshened and training very well since her win in the Princess Rooney Stakes in early July, should be comfortably placed in a pace-stalking/forcing position and should have every chance to reproduce her best form.  Our top pick remains #6 Dame Dorothy;  she is a seven furlong specialist (perfect four-for-four), though this will be her first start at Saratoga.  She’s never been particularly fast on speed figures but she did earn a career top number in her most recent start, the Bed O Roses at Belmont in mid-June, and she’s been training like she’s fit and ready for Pletcher.  #7 Unbridled Forever also is perfect at this seven furlong trip (2-for-2) and though nine of her 11 career starts have been at distances of a mile or more, the evidence is mounting that she’s always wanted to be a late-running sprinter.  Her win in the Shine Again Stakes earlier this month produced a career top speed figure in her first start since last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff and if the game plan is to keep her around one turn this year she could be a major force in this division leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  However, without the speedy La Verdad in the field, her come-from-behind style may be compromised.  We'll see today if she’s truly Grade 1 material.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while ever so slightly preferring Dame Dorothy on top.

EIGHTH RACE (3:47 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Watershed; 6-Limousine Liberal; 7-Holy Boss

This looks like an exceptional edition of the King’s Bishop, a race in which deep closers often outrun their odds.  If there’s a pace meltdown today it could happen again. #4 Watershed was as visually impressive as a maiden could be when scoring in jaw-dropping fashion at first asking three weeks ago over this track at six furlongs; his late-running style gives every indication that this extended sprint trip should be right up his alley.  Of course, the jump from maiden to the Grade 1 level at Saratoga is monumental for an older race horse and Watershed will have to be extraordinary to do so, but if Godolphin and McLaughlin believe he’s up to it, we’re willing to gamble at 8-1 that they’re right.  If not, there are many in here capable of winning.  #7 Holy Boss has reeled off four straight victories and each time he’s been more impressive than his score.  His figures keep rising and he has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip, so the son of Street Boss must be considered the one to beat. #6 Limousine Liberal overcame a brutal trip to win at first asking at Churchill Downs and then toyed with first-level allowance foes at Ellis Park in his next start.  He still has a ways to go to be competitive at this level on speed figures, but who really knows how good he is?   The son of Successful Appeal has been burning up the Keeneland main track in recent weeks and surely has another major forward move in him, so at 30-1 on the morning line, why not toss him in?

NINTH RACE (4:25 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-The Big Beast; 6-Tamarkuz; 7-Private Zone

#7 Private Zone is fast, genuine, and consistent and should be on or near the lead (as usual) without having to go particularly fast during the early stages in a race that doesn’t have all that much early zip in it.   The projected pace scenario of the Forego makes him the one to beat, and if you like him you’re probably thinking his morning line of 3-1 is generous.  However, this is no stroll in the park, as both #5 The Big Beast and #6 Tamarkuz have strong credentials of their own.  The Big Beast ran Rock Fall to a nose in the Vanderbilt a month ago while earning a career top number and with two nice works since that race he should fire a similar shot today.  Tamarkus, a highly respectable fourth in the Met Mile behind Honor Code (and finishing just over a length behind Private Zone) after looming a bold threat entering the lane, was given time off to recuperate after a hard race (and a tough Dubai campaign before that) and returns today for McLaughlin in a race he’s quite capable of winning.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while conceding that morning line of 5-1 for Tamarkuz makes him looks extremely inviting.

TENTH RACE (5:04 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Flintshire

Top class European shipper #2 Flintshire finished a superior second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and though he’s winless this year in four starts there’s nothing wrong at all with his form.  Most recently second to the brilliant Treve in a Group-1 in France, the Fabre-trained world traveler simply should outclass a field comprised mostly of American turf performers who have taken turns beating each another throughout the year.  If it’s not Flintshire, it could be #1 Imagining or #4 Red Rifle or #5 Twilight Eclipse or even one of the other two European shippers, but if Flintshire shows up with his best, he’ll win. 

ELEVENTH RACE (5:46 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 2-American Pharoah

Not that he needed it, but the projected pace scenario of the Travers gives #2 American Pharoah an advantage similar to the one he enjoyed in the Belmont Stakes, that of being the controlling speed in a race that he figures to dominate from gate to wire.  We know he doesn’t need the lead to win but from the number two post Espinoza surely will let him stride out and establish the running.  From there he can do pretty much whatever he wants, and a repeat of the Haskell – a race in which he never had to extend himself at any stage - seems more than likely.  #4 Texas Red should be within striking range and have every chance; a case could be made that he’s the best 3-year-old ‘Pharoah will have faced this year.  We’ll see if he’s good enough to at least make the final furlong interesting.

TWELFTH RACE (6:20 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Tepin; 4-Dacita; 7-Kitten’s Queen

#1 Tepin lost a heartbreaker to Hard Not to Like in the Diana S.-G1 last month over this course and deserves better luck today.  Her front-running/stalking style from her rail post should allow Leparoux to secure whatever trip he wants, and with three consecutive triple-digit Beyer numbers in her last three starts she has developed into a thoroughly consistent and high-class middle distance turf performer.  #7 Kitten’s Queen, in the photo with Tepin in the Diana after cutting out all of the fractions (specifically to set things up for stablemate Stephanie’s Kitten who is bypassing the race), gets to run her own race today and while she has more than enough early zip to make the pace, she has won as a stalker in the past, so perhaps that strategy will be employed today.  Not matter how she’s ridden she’s a major player.  #4 Dacita is a multiple Group-1 winner from Chile, which can mean anything, but given her connections she has to be taken at least somewhat seriously.  In her nine race career, she’s been defeated only three times, once in her debut, once when she didn’t break well, and once when she failed to stay 12 furlongs.  We have to include her.

THIRTEENTH RACE (6:53 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Ode to the Hunt; 4-Tiger D; 12-Jax Heritage

#3 Ode to the Hunt makes his first start since January and if he’s fit and ready this son of Artie Schiller certainly seems capable of winning this first-level state-bred allowance race.  Most effective when held up and allowed to produce the last run, the Violette-trained colt gets Irad Ortiz and the rail and should enjoy a good ground-saving trip.  However, he’s just one of a bunch that have credentials in this grass grab bag.  #4 Tiger D is a first-time gelding now in the Delacour barn and may be a better type this time around in his first outing since March.  The son of Grand Slam ran well over this course last year and has back figures that put him in the picture.  #12 Jax Heritage is stuck away outside and will have to drop over and somehow negotiate a decent trip.  If Leparoux can manage to save some ground early on, this More than Ready colt could produce the last run.  We’ll try to get by using just these three, but with American Pharoah as a free bingo space in late pick-3 and pick-4, the opportunity is there to spread or even buy this race.