AUGUST 28, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $24 investment

1st race: 4, 5

2nd race: 2, 3

3rd race: 2, 6

4th race: 6, 7, 8

5th race: 3, 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Keezheekoni; 5-Flat Footed Mama

#4 Keezheekoni was beaten a head two races back in a similar restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming dash for fillies and mares and then was overmatched on turf against first-level allowance foes.  Back where she belongs today and re-united with Bejarano, the Eurton-trained filly catches a favorable pace scenario and should bounce back with her best effort today.  #5 Flat Footed Mama drops into a claimer for the first time, shortens up, and switches to dirt.  This seems like a realistic spot for the Baffert-trained homebred filly.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Keezheekoni on top.

SECOND RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Midnight Belle; 3-Almost Guilty

#2 Midnight Belle exits a strong, productive maiden sprint in her first start in more than a year and seems sure to benefit from the outing.  Certainly bred to run long, she stretches out today for Glatt while retaining Bejarano and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.  Recent workouts have been impressive, so this daughter of Bernardini should finally be able to show her true potential.  #3 Almost Guilty had one run earlier this year in England (she was fifth of eight) and makes her U.S. debut right off the plane as a first-time Lasix user for Freeman.  The daughter of Distorted Humor should have no trouble with the main track and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.  We’ll use her as a saver, but the main push here goes to Midnight Belle.

THIRD RACE (5:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Desert Steel; 6-Bonus Spin

#2 Desert Steel is coming back a little quicker than we’d prefer (16 days) but she certainly was impressive in her recent score over this course and distance and will be tough to beat right back if she doesn’t suffer a “bounce.”  The Desert Code filly always has been well-regarded and now that she’s been able to string a few races together she’ll likely develop some consistency.  Prat replaces Baze, who, we assume, had a prior commitment on #6 Bonus Spin.  The latter ran very well in her recent comeback over a tough, deep track; she put away all the speed types but was nailed late.  She tries turf for the first time today and as a daughter of Hard Spun, she should like it just fine.  We’ll give the edge to Desert Steel but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Matriculate; 7-Tough Sunday; 8-Gangnam Guy

#6 Matriculate was awesome in his maiden win but was a major disappointment in his second start, missing at 50 cents on the dollar when third in a similar state-bred first level allowance race in late June.  So, which version will we see today?  After a couple of months off, the Spawr-trained colt returns with a recent work tab that is okay, not great, so question marks remain.  #7 Tough Sunday didn’t have the best of runs when fourth at 6/5 at this level  last time out but he’s come back to work well for Miyadi and probably deserves another chance.  He has a good chance to outrun his 8-1 morning line so we’ll toss him in.  #8 Gangnam Guy is a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt play for Hollendorfer and should fold into a perfect stalking spot from his outside draw.  A very sharp five furlong work just five days ago should have him spot on.  We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Gangnam Guy on top.

FIFTH RACE (6:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Vow Me Over; 6-Minister’sadventure

There’s not really a whole lot to work with here.  #6 Minister’sadventure just finished first in a starter’s allowance race under these conditions but had her number taken down due to a questionable call.  She’ll be hard to beat today if behaves herself and Prat got to know her last time.  #3 Vow Me Over, a close third as the favorite in the same race Minister’sadventure exits, retains Bejarano and figures in the battle right back.  These are the two that should fight it out so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (6:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Later My Love; 4-Obey; 8-My Palmilla; 9-Patriotic Diamond

We’re going four deep in this race – we usually cap it at three – because this juvenile filly field is loaded with lightly-raced prospects, many of whom are likely to produce significant forward moves.  #4 Obey is perfect in two starts including a win in CTBA Stakes last month; the speedy daughter of Desert Code should be on the pace again but will have to travel a full six furlongs today while packing 124 lbs.  #3 Later My Love, beaten less than a length by Obey in that same race at 41-1, won’t be that price today and will be tough if her improvement continues.  #8 My Palmilla appeared to be making the winning move when looming up to challenge Obey at the head of the lane before suddenly being pulled up.  She’s obviously okay, having trained quite well since that race, and should be given another chance.  However, the one we’ll prefer on top and have a few extra tickets on is #9 Patriotic Diamond.  The Biancone-trained filly, a fast-finishing second in her debut after being crunched and squeezed back at the start, is a maiden trying winners but she’s a fit on figures and seems like the type that will improve considerably as the distances increase.  If she can break cleanly from her outside draw and secure a decent early position, the daughter of Hat Trick should step forward big time and could easily wear down the speed in the final furlong.

SEVENTH RACE (7:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 7-Alpha Doll; 8-Scatchmeifyoucan

#8 Scatchmeifyoucan has little to beat in this woefully weak bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, and in her third start off a layoff the Cerin-trained filly switches to Nakatani and may be capable of controlling this race from gate to wire.  # 7 Alpha Doll, freshened since April and with back numbers that make her a fit, could be a bit better type this time around and could be the one to fear most.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play in a race in which nothing, really, would surprise us and one that we’re not planning to participate in.