AUGUST 7, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $27 investment

1st race: 1, 3, 4

2nd race: 1, 5, 8

3rd race: 2, 9

4th race: 1, 7, 9

5th race: 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Twisted Earl; 3-Last One Standing; 4-Panther Creek

#3 Last One Standing drops to the $40,000 maiden claiming level as a first-time gelding and seems likely to improve in his second career start for a barn that has good stats with this angle.  The son of A. P. Warrior didn’t break well in his debut, flashed decent speed to move within range to the head of the lane and then gradually faded.  He seems fairly logical but at 9/5 on the morning line offers little in the way of value.  #1 Twisted Early bolted in the same race Last One Standing exits and today will race without blinkers following a sharp, bullet five furlong drill for Heap.  If he can run, today would be a good day to show it.  #4 Panther Creek showed some ability in his debut at Lone Star Park and earned a competitive speed figure compared with the other main contenders in this field.  He sports two solid drills over the track for Sherlock and has just as much right to move forward as the others.  We’ve graded the race a “C” and won’t get involved other than to include the three listed above in rolling exotic play.

SECOND RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Princess Marina; 5-Enduring Erin; 8-Light Striker

#5 Enduring Erin is a Bay Area invader with form good enough to win at this level, and after a brief freshening looks primed for a major effort for the Hess/Desormeaux team.  Her late-running style was compromised by the speed-favoring turf course that she competed over in her last pair, but over this main track she figures to be far more effective, especially at the $16,000 non-winners of three level.  #1 Princess Marina has good tactical speed and from her inside draw the daughter of Marino Marini could be in front depending upon what sprint-to-route entrant Natalie Paige does.  She can stalk and win if required, as she did two races back, and seems likely to at least hit the board.  #8 Light Striker didn’t fire at all when claimed for $12,500 by Ellis last time out but the sloppy track gives her an excuse and she has prior races that would make her a threat.  Talamo stays aboard and knows her well.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but have extra tickets with Enduring Erin on top.

THIRD RACE (5:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Desert Gem; 9-Cyber Star

#9 Cyber Star exits a fast, highly-rated race in his debut and seems sure to improve with that effort behind him.  Though beaten almost 13 lengths, he actually earned a pretty decent speed figure and if he can show some tactical speed today, he’ll have every chance against what looks to be a below par field for the level.  #2 Desert Gem is back sprinting for Hofmans and a repeat his third place effort two races back puts him in the thick of things with this bunch.  Probably most comfortable as a late-running sprinter, he should be doing his best work late.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference to Cyber Star.

FOURTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Sadie Clare; 7-Soul Flyer; 9-Edwina E.

#1 Sadie Clare must overcome the rail but if she can negotiate a good trip she’ll be tough in this company.  The daughter of Grazen broke slowly and fell back early, took hold into the lane and finished with interest in a decent debut in March.  If she returns at least as well as she left she’ll be the one to beat, assuming she leaves with her field today.  #7 Soul Flyer launches a comeback for Canani and has been training like she’s fit and ready.  She returns with blinkers and Van Dyke (who was aboard her in a recent workout) and looks extremely live after flashing a bit of promise as a two-year-old.  #8 Edwina E. seems better than her debut shows – she was victimized by the rail and today is comfortably drawn outside – and she continues to show enthusiasm in the morning for Cecil.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s absolutely worth including in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (6:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Sinfully

Got a hunch this race is going to a produce a fast early pace and if so, #4 Sinfully should have every chance to produce the last run as a straight play and rolling exotic single.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for Miller (strong stats with this angle) and a first-time gelding, and with back numbers that fit in this league the son of Candy Ride offers considerable value at 5-1 on the morning line.  This barn broke a zero-for-20 losing streak yesterday and may be ready to get hot again. 

SIXTH RACE (6:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Silver Mojave; 8-Daddy’s Duo; 9-Blondy’s Reward

#9 Blondy’s Reward looked quite good winning her recent comeback with a huge, career-top number and there’s no reason she can’t repeat that type of performance today.  Drawn nicely outside, she has the perfect style for this extended sprint distance.  #8 Daddy’s Duo has rising speed figures for Desormeaux and a bullet half mile workout last week shows she’s continuing to progress.  She’s a perfect one-for-one on dirt and, like Blondy’s Reward has a suitable style for this trip.  #6 Silver Mojave has just one victory to go along with nine seconds and thirds so she may not be one to trust, but the Puype-trained mare, freshened since June and returning to dirt, is a fit on figures and retains Baze.  She should at least land in the frame.

SEVENTH RACE (7:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Shrinking Violet; 5-Birdlover; 9-Home Journey

#1 Shrinking Violet is a dangerous stalking turf sprinter and if she can avoid traffic from the rail she should be capable of wearing down the leaders late.  A couple of very impressive recent workouts indicate she’s spot on and Desormeaux, who’s always gotten the most run out of her, returns.  We like her on top but we’ll also use the two legitimate speeds, #5 Birdlover and #9 Home Journey.  The former is back sprinting where she belongs and she should appreciate the abbreviated trip, while the latter is good enough to win with her best effort, though the extreme outside draw does her no favors.

EIGHTH RACE (7:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Bananappeal; 5-Mydancingshadow; 10-Scat City

This weak bottom-rung maiden claimer offers nothing but chaos; we’ll use the three listed above but without any degree of confidence.  #10 Scat City is a first time starter that has shown a decent amount of speed in the morning and may fit with these.  He’s drawn outside and should have every chance to pop and go.  The barn rarely wins with first-timers but in this league, anything goes.  #5 Mydancingshadows was purchased for $1,000 at auction a couple of weeks ago; the fact that he actually has a look in this race underlines how weak it is.  His form up north – at least in two sprint races – wasn’t awful and for his local debut he lands Bejarano.  #2 Bananappeal, second in a similar spot opening day, shortens to six furlongs and figures to stick better at this trip.  We’ve graded this race a “C” so played conservatively, if at all.