AUGUST 22, 2015 – DEL MAR
JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS
& WAGERING STRATEGIES
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Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering
strategies geared to rolling exotic players. The basic
strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily
doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to
augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be
achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s
analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a
moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering
strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling
exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better
indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics
pools than a horse’s actual closing odds. Jeff’s top selection
always appears in bold-faced type.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should
be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more
than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling
exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race”
strategy.
TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5
WAGERING STRATEGY
DEL MAR - $8 investment
1st race: 2, 4
2nd race: 4, 9
3rd race: 3, 5
4th race: 1, 2
5th race: 2
A=Highest degree of confidence. B=Solid
Play. C=Least preferred, or pass
Top selection indicated in bold-face
FIRST
RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 2-Skelton
Pass; 4-Dream Team
#4 Dream Team, a $1 million yearling purchase by Tapit from the
terrific producer Pretty’n Smart (Heart Ashley, Ashley’s Kitty, Indianapolis),
finally makes it to the races for Baffert and does so with a string of solid
workouts in his resume. He’s a big,
strong, impressive looking colt and certainly will receive plenty of tote support,
but he’d better not make any mistakes. #2 Skelton Pass, a first-off-the-claim
gelding for Sadler, finished second in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut
last month and seems certain to improve off that effort. A bullet half mile workout here just four
days ago should have the son of Temple City on edge. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while
recognizing that Dream Team may have superior potential.
SECOND
RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C
Use: 4-Ranulf;
9-Knock Em Flat
This race is somewhat chaotic
on paper for several reasons, most notably because of logical favorite #9 Knock Em Flat (5/2 on ML) doesn’t
have a great pattern. The ex-classer was
scratched out of a starter’s allowance race on Thursday for this $20,000
claimer after having been haltered for this price by Yakteen following a sharp
win last month. The win was accomplished
in gate-to-wire fashion over a sloppy track, so it can’t really be taken at
face value, and today the son of Flatter is potentially facing quite a bit more
early speed while having to break from the extreme outside post. He has won on fast ground in the past, but
he’s clearly not being protected by his new connections so there’s no guarantee
he runs as well today as he did on opening weekend. We’ll use him in our rolling exotics but not
with a great deal of confidence. #4 Ranulf
is unproven routing (he’s only been tried once) but gets another crack at it in
his first-off-the-claim for Mullins (good stats with stretch-out runners). The son of Malibu Moon knows how to win races
(6 for 18) and after exiting a series of fast sprints should draft into an
ideal pace prompting/stalking position in this two-turn miler. He’s reunited with Garcia, who has won with
him in the past and looks a very live item for a stable that has done quite
well this season. These are the two we’ll
include in our rolling exotics but we’ll otherwise not get too involved.
THIRD
RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 3-Air Pocket; 5-Dylan Ward
#5 Dylan Ward has been a money burner throughout most of his career, but we’re
going to give him one more chance in his first try with blinkers. Fifth in his recent comeback in what was a
very fast, highly-rated race for the level, the son of Artie Schiller faces a
considerably easier group today and shouldn’t have any excuses. He switches to Baze, sports a strong, healthy
work tab, and lands a comfortable mid-pack draw. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a play for us
in the straight pool and a key in rolling exotic play. For those that would feel more comfortable
with a backup, consider #3 Air Pocket.
He’s a seven race maiden that appears to lack a winning punch but to be fair he
has faced some better than average maidens in his last several starts on
turf. The Baffert-trained colt has good
tactical speed and should have every chance as a presser or stalker.
FOURTH
RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 1-Turnover;
2-Appealing Tale
Rolling exotic players may
choose to buy this race; it’s a five runner Grade 1 sprint stakes races that
has contenders top to bottom. Morning line choice #3 Wild Dude (8/5) just
won the Bing Crosby S.-G1 over this track last month and has the proper style
for this seven furlong trip, but despite its lofty status the Bing Crosby was a
well below average race in which two runners (Caminetto, Distinctiv Passion)
already have come back to perform below expectations. For this reason, we’re going to look in a
different direction. #1 Turnover
is completely unproven in stakes competition but he’s lightly-raced, fast on
numbers, and seems ideally suited for seven furlongs. He was a very impressive winner at Los
Alamitos in his comeback in July and then was third when slipping and sliding
over a sloppy track he couldn’t handle in a good allowance race here later in
the month. The son of Big Brown
continues to sizzle in the morning and could very well be this good in what
will be just his sixth career start. At
8-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble.
#2 Appealing Tale lost a heartbreaker in the San Diego H.-G2 last
month and while we’ve always thought of him as a two-turn miler, he did finish
second at this seven-eighths distance in the Triple Bend S-G1 two runs
back. He’s plenty fast on figures (three
straight triple-digit Beyer numbers) and on pure form seems like a deserving
favorite. As for the others, #5 Kobe’s Back likely was eliminated at
the start in the Bing Crosby and did well to finish third, beaten less than
three lengths, but we believe that race flattered him, and on this “new”
version of the Del Mar main track – the one that favors speed – his task won’t
be easy. #4 Indexical just romped in the slop (defeating Turnover) but we’re
guessing that wake-up performance was a product of the track condition.
FIFTH
RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: A-
Single: 2-Perfect
Set
#2 Perfect Set has been around awhile (this will be his 27th lifetime
start) but he’s never been sharper and in fact earned a career top speed figure
when second, beaten a nose, in a powerful non-winners of two main track affair
earlier this month (by way of comparison, 30 minutes earlier over the same
track and distance, Beholder’s Clement L. Hirsch victory went only .25 seconds
faster with similar early splits). Vastly improved since being claimed by
Hollendorfer four races back, the son of Pleasantly Perfect sports two nice
workouts since his most recent race and should run at least as well, and
perhaps better, today. Gonzalez stays
aboard and fits him perfectly. At 5/2 on
the morning line, ‘Set is a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
SIXTH
RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 6-Boyett; 8-Soi Phet; 10-Twentytwentyvision
This is highly competitive
third-level allowance turf affair that probably will come down to trips,
traffic, and trouble. The three listed
above should run their race and are good enough to win if things go their way,
but that’s always an iffy proposition in a 10-runner field over this
course. #10 Twentytwentyvision
clearly exits by far the best race – he was solid runner-up in the Eddie Read
S.-G1 last month – but must pack 124 lbs. while giving weight all around plus
he must break from the extreme outside post, not exactly where you want to be
coming from out of that dogleg. The
Mandella-trained gelding may be good enough to win anyway – of course, you have
to use him in your rolling exotics – but at 5/2 on the morning line there’s not
a lot of value to be found. #8 Soi Phet was arguably best when fourth, beaten a half-length, against a
similar field over this course and distance last month – Trackus tells us he
traveled 53 feet (about five lengths) farther than winner Little Jerry - and if
he can somehow manage to find the rail today he should be quite
formidable. However, from the post
position eight he could find himself in a similar predicament to his last race,
and since he’s not the handiest of sorts or the easiest of rides, Desormeaux
may have his hands full. #6 Boyett looks like the controlling
speed and if he gets away with a relatively soft trip on the front end under
Bejarano, he may never look back. Nosed
out in the same race Soi Phet exits after pressing the pace throughout, the
Sharp Humor gelding most likely will be able to slow it down a bit today and at
5-1 on the morning line looks as good as any and better than most. We’ll go three deep and keep our fingers
crossed; if you can afford to use a few more, go right ahead.
SEVENTH
RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 1-Tiz a Tommy Town; 4-Garnet; 7-Annie’s Curls
#1 Tiz a Tommy Town finished a distant second to the
highly-regarded Songbird last month and there’s not likely to be anything in
here that good, so the Hollendorfer-trained filly is a logical contender in a
strong field of straight maiden juvenile fillies. The daughter of Speightstown switches to
Rosario, sports a healthy work tab since raced, and seems likely to produce a
forward move, assuming she avoids trouble from the rail. #7
Annie’s Curls, fourth in the same race Tiz a Tommy Town exits, certainly
has room to step forward with that race behind her and with blinkers being
added today the daughter of Curlin certainly is a major player. Bejarano stays aboard for Stidham, who has
superior stats with second-time starters and the fact that she’s had one less
race than Tiz a Tommy Town may indicate that at this stage she has a bit higher
ceiling. #4 Garnet breezed a furlong in 10 2/5 over the Timonium bullring
and then brought $1.25 million at the Fasig-Tipton Eastern sale in May. By Smart Strike from a stakes-winning full
sister to Hopeful-G1 winner Majestic Warrior, the Callaghan-trained filly has
worked well since arriving at California though certainly not being asked for
anything close to her best. While she
may be considered a “down the road” type, she still might be talented enough to
win so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss in her.
EIGHTH
RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 1-Ashleyluvssugar; 4-Big John B; 8-Finnegans Wake
On any given day, anyone of
the three listed above are capable of beating the other two, so rather than
split hairs we’ll just use all three. #4 Big John B seems to be in the best
form and is proven (two-for-two) over the Del Mar turf course so we’ll give the
D’Amato-trained gelding a very slight edge on top. #1 Ashleyluvssugar was not himself when unplaced in the United
Nations-G1 at Monmouth in July but his previous California form was outstanding
and he’ll be tough to contain if he snaps back to life today. The Game Plan gelding has won half of his 12
lifetime starts and has the tactical speed to allow Stevens to place him
wherever he wants. #8 Finnegans Wake has been slightly disappointing in his last
three; even though each race was a Grade One event we still expected a bit
more. While he may be the least
preferred of the logical three main contenders, we’ll include him knowing that
his “A” game is as good as the other two.
NINTH
RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: C+
Use: 3-Bayern;
5-Red Vine; 8-Hoppertunity; 9-Beholder
By going four deep, we’re
admitting that we don’t really have a great handle on the Pacific Classic. If we had to eliminate one of the four, it
would be #9 Beholder. The multiple Eclipse Award winning
daughter of Henny Hughes is unproven against the boys and especially at a mile
and one-quarter. Additionally, she has
no edge in speed figures and in facing #9
Bayern will be asked to cope with the type of high class speed she’s rarely,
if ever, had to deal with. That said, it
would be great to see her win, and she just might find a way. Bayern will be let roll today – no more of
those 24 flat opening quarters – and if he’s allowed to wing it, last year’s Breeders’
Cup Classic winner might regain his top form.
The way the main track has been playing in the last couple of his weeks,
his front-running style could carry him a very long way. #8
Hoppertunity is a true mile and
one-quarter horse and should run his race.
Arguably best when narrowly missing despite a very wide trip in the Gold
Cup at Santa Anita, he found the 1 1/16 miles of the recent San Diego Handicap
at bit too sharp when winding up fourth in what probably served as an ideal
prep for this event. He’s back with
Garcia today and looms the most dangerous of the deep closers. #5 Red
Vine has numbers back east that put him in the fray, though he’s never won
even as much as a Grade 3 stakes. He’s a true 10-furlong horse and somewhat of
a grinder whose style probably is better suited for dirt than turf. Clement has an excellent record with shippers
to the West Coast and this son of Candy Ride looks dangerous for the always
potent Rosario-Clement team. At the
price (he’s 6-1 on the morning line), Bayern may be worth a small gamble in the
straight pool; however, we’ll include all four in rolling exotic play.
TENTH
RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: A
Single: 8-Roy
H
#8 Roy S has the makings of a high class turf sprinter and should take a
major step in that direction today in this first-level allowance abbreviated
turf sprint. Many lengths the best when
second to Rocket Heat (who franked the form with another turf sprint win
yesterday), the Miller-trained colt need only leave with his field today to get
back on the winning track. The son of
More Than Ready switches to Espinoza, catches a field that, surprisingly,
doesn’t have all that much zip in it, and should control proceedings either on
the lead or from a cozy stalking outside position as a rolling exotic single. He’s 5/2 on the morning line, but don’t count
on getting it.
ELEVENTH
RACE (7:10 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 2-Unfettered;
3-Oligarch; 8-Second Proposal
Let’s take some shots in
the nightcap while going three-deep with three middle price chances. #3
Oligarch catches what likely will be a far different type of racetrack than
the one he had to deal with last month and could easily return to top
form. The Del Mar strip was slower and
favored the closers earlier in the meeting but the track has done a complete
flip in recent days and now appears to favor the pace runners. Now in the Sherman barn and returning to his
previous winning level, the speedy gelding retains Prat and may very well be
the best of the pace-pressing types. At
6-1 on the morning line he’s enticing. #8 Second Proposal just demolished a
softer field with an exceptional late turn of foot; he’s raised three levels in
class in a show of confidence by Kruljac, retains Nakatani, and clearly looks
the most dangerous of the closers. #2 Unfettered is an intriguing New
Mexico invader with consistent sprint form and speed figures that make him a
fit on this circuit. He’s capable of
settling in mid pack and then producing a late run and is worth tossing in at
12-1 on the morning line. Those who can
afford to go deeper should consider #7
Buckleberry Grey and #10 Kafister
as back-ups.
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