AUGUST 22, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $8 investment

1st race: 2, 4

2nd race: 4, 9

3rd race: 3, 5

4th race: 1, 2

5th race: 2

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Skelton Pass; 4-Dream Team

#4 Dream Team, a $1 million yearling purchase by Tapit from the terrific producer Pretty’n Smart (Heart Ashley, Ashley’s Kitty, Indianapolis), finally makes it to the races for Baffert and does so with a string of solid workouts in his resume.  He’s a big, strong, impressive looking colt and certainly will receive plenty of tote support, but he’d better not make any mistakes.  #2 Skelton Pass, a first-off-the-claim gelding for Sadler, finished second in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut last month and seems certain to improve off that effort.  A bullet half mile workout here just four days ago should have the son of Temple City on edge.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while recognizing that Dream Team may have superior potential.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Ranulf; 9-Knock Em Flat

This race is somewhat chaotic on paper for several reasons, most notably because of logical favorite #9 Knock Em Flat (5/2 on ML) doesn’t have a great pattern.  The ex-classer was scratched out of a starter’s allowance race on Thursday for this $20,000 claimer after having been haltered for this price by Yakteen following a sharp win last month.  The win was accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion over a sloppy track, so it can’t really be taken at face value, and today the son of Flatter is potentially facing quite a bit more early speed while having to break from the extreme outside post.  He has won on fast ground in the past, but he’s clearly not being protected by his new connections so there’s no guarantee he runs as well today as he did on opening weekend.  We’ll use him in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.  #4 Ranulf is unproven routing (he’s only been tried once) but gets another crack at it in his first-off-the-claim for Mullins (good stats with stretch-out runners).  The son of Malibu Moon knows how to win races (6 for 18) and after exiting a series of fast sprints should draft into an ideal pace prompting/stalking position in this two-turn miler.  He’s reunited with Garcia, who has won with him in the past and looks a very live item for a stable that has done quite well this season.  These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics but we’ll otherwise not get too involved.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Air Pocket; 5-Dylan Ward

#5 Dylan Ward has been a money burner throughout most of his career, but we’re going to give him one more chance in his first try with blinkers.  Fifth in his recent comeback in what was a very fast, highly-rated race for the level, the son of Artie Schiller faces a considerably easier group today and shouldn’t have any excuses.  He switches to Baze, sports a strong, healthy work tab, and lands a comfortable mid-pack draw.  At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a play for us in the straight pool and a key in rolling exotic play.  For those that would feel more comfortable with a backup, consider #3 Air Pocket. He’s a seven race maiden that appears to lack a winning punch but to be fair he has faced some better than average maidens in his last several starts on turf.  The Baffert-trained colt has good tactical speed and should have every chance as a presser or stalker.   

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Turnover; 2-Appealing Tale

Rolling exotic players may choose to buy this race; it’s a five runner Grade 1 sprint stakes races that has contenders top to bottom. Morning line choice #3 Wild Dude (8/5) just won the Bing Crosby S.-G1 over this track last month and has the proper style for this seven furlong trip, but despite its lofty status the Bing Crosby was a well below average race in which two runners (Caminetto, Distinctiv Passion) already have come back to perform below expectations.  For this reason, we’re going to look in a different direction.  #1 Turnover is completely unproven in stakes competition but he’s lightly-raced, fast on numbers, and seems ideally suited for seven furlongs.  He was a very impressive winner at Los Alamitos in his comeback in July and then was third when slipping and sliding over a sloppy track he couldn’t handle in a good allowance race here later in the month.  The son of Big Brown continues to sizzle in the morning and could very well be this good in what will be just his sixth career start.  At 8-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble.  #2 Appealing Tale lost a heartbreaker in the San Diego H.-G2 last month and while we’ve always thought of him as a two-turn miler, he did finish second at this seven-eighths distance in the Triple Bend S-G1 two runs back.  He’s plenty fast on figures (three straight triple-digit Beyer numbers) and on pure form seems like a deserving favorite.  As for the others, #5 Kobe’s Back likely was eliminated at the start in the Bing Crosby and did well to finish third, beaten less than three lengths, but we believe that race flattered him, and on this “new” version of the Del Mar main track – the one that favors speed – his task won’t be easy.  #4 Indexical just romped in the slop (defeating Turnover) but we’re guessing that wake-up performance was a product of the track condition.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 2-Perfect Set

#2 Perfect Set has been around awhile (this will be his 27^th lifetime start) but he’s never been sharper and in fact earned a career top speed figure when second, beaten a nose, in a powerful non-winners of two main track affair earlier this month (by way of comparison, 30 minutes earlier over the same track and distance, Beholder’s Clement L. Hirsch victory went only .25 seconds faster with similar early splits). Vastly improved since being claimed by Hollendorfer four races back, the son of Pleasantly Perfect sports two nice workouts since his most recent race and should run at least as well, and perhaps better, today.  Gonzalez stays aboard and fits him perfectly.  At 5/2 on the morning line, ‘Set is a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Boyett; 8-Soi Phet; 10-Twentytwentyvision

This is highly competitive third-level allowance turf affair that probably will come down to trips, traffic, and trouble.  The three listed above should run their race and are good enough to win if things go their way, but that’s always an iffy proposition in a 10-runner field over this course.  #10 Twentytwentyvision clearly exits by far the best race – he was solid runner-up in the Eddie Read S.-G1 last month – but must pack 124 lbs. while giving weight all around plus he must break from the extreme outside post, not exactly where you want to be coming from out of that dogleg.  The Mandella-trained gelding may be good enough to win anyway – of course, you have to use him in your rolling exotics – but at 5/2 on the morning line there’s not a lot of value to be found.  #8 Soi Phet was arguably best when fourth, beaten a half-length, against a similar field over this course and distance last month – Trackus tells us he traveled 53 feet (about five lengths) farther than winner Little Jerry - and if he can somehow manage to find the rail today he should be quite formidable.  However, from the post position eight he could find himself in a similar predicament to his last race, and since he’s not the handiest of sorts or the easiest of rides, Desormeaux may have his hands full.  #6 Boyett looks like the controlling speed and if he gets away with a relatively soft trip on the front end under Bejarano, he may never look back.  Nosed out in the same race Soi Phet exits after pressing the pace throughout, the Sharp Humor gelding most likely will be able to slow it down a bit today and at 5-1 on the morning line looks as good as any and better than most.  We’ll go three deep and keep our fingers crossed; if you can afford to use a few more, go right ahead.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Tiz a Tommy Town; 4-Garnet; 7-Annie’s Curls

#1 Tiz a Tommy Town finished a distant second to the highly-regarded Songbird last month and there’s not likely to be anything in here that good, so the Hollendorfer-trained filly is a logical contender in a strong field of straight maiden juvenile fillies.  The daughter of Speightstown switches to Rosario, sports a healthy work tab since raced, and seems likely to produce a forward move, assuming she avoids trouble from the rail.  #7 Annie’s Curls, fourth in the same race Tiz a Tommy Town exits, certainly has room to step forward with that race behind her and with blinkers being added today the daughter of Curlin certainly is a major player.  Bejarano stays aboard for Stidham, who has superior stats with second-time starters and the fact that she’s had one less race than Tiz a Tommy Town may indicate that at this stage she has a bit higher ceiling.  #4 Garnet breezed a furlong in 10 2/5 over the Timonium bullring and then brought $1.25 million at the Fasig-Tipton Eastern sale in May.  By Smart Strike from a stakes-winning full sister to Hopeful-G1 winner Majestic Warrior, the Callaghan-trained filly has worked well since arriving at California though certainly not being asked for anything close to her best.  While she may be considered a “down the road” type, she still might be talented enough to win so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss in her.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Ashleyluvssugar; 4-Big John B; 8-Finnegans Wake

On any given day, anyone of the three listed above are capable of beating the other two, so rather than split hairs we’ll just use all three.  #4 Big John B seems to be in the best form and is proven (two-for-two) over the Del Mar turf course so we’ll give the D’Amato-trained gelding a very slight edge on top.  #1 Ashleyluvssugar was not himself when unplaced in the United Nations-G1 at Monmouth in July but his previous California form was outstanding and he’ll be tough to contain if he snaps back to life today.  The Game Plan gelding has won half of his 12 lifetime starts and has the tactical speed to allow Stevens to place him wherever he wants.  #8 Finnegans Wake has been slightly disappointing in his last three; even though each race was a Grade One event we still expected a bit more.  While he may be the least preferred of the logical three main contenders, we’ll include him knowing that his “A” game is as good as the other two.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Bayern; 5-Red Vine; 8-Hoppertunity; 9-Beholder

By going four deep, we’re admitting that we don’t really have a great handle on the Pacific Classic.  If we had to eliminate one of the four, it would be #9 Beholder.  The multiple Eclipse Award winning daughter of Henny Hughes is unproven against the boys and especially at a mile and one-quarter.  Additionally, she has no edge in speed figures and in facing #9 Bayern will be asked to cope with the type of high class speed she’s rarely, if ever, had to deal with.  That said, it would be great to see her win, and she just might find a way.  Bayern will be let roll today – no more of those 24 flat opening quarters – and if he’s allowed to wing it, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner might regain his top form.  The way the main track has been playing in the last couple of his weeks, his front-running style could carry him a very long way.  #8 Hoppertunity is a true mile and one-quarter horse and should run his race.  Arguably best when narrowly missing despite a very wide trip in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita, he found the 1 1/16 miles of the recent San Diego Handicap at bit too sharp when winding up fourth in what probably served as an ideal prep for this event.  He’s back with Garcia today and looms the most dangerous of the deep closers.  #5 Red Vine has numbers back east that put him in the fray, though he’s never won even as much as a Grade 3 stakes. He’s a true 10-furlong horse and somewhat of a grinder whose style probably is better suited for dirt than turf.  Clement has an excellent record with shippers to the West Coast and this son of Candy Ride looks dangerous for the always potent Rosario-Clement team.  At the price (he’s 6-1 on the morning line), Bayern may be worth a small gamble in the straight pool; however, we’ll include all four in rolling exotic play.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: A

Single: 8-Roy H

#8 Roy S has the makings of a high class turf sprinter and should take a major step in that direction today in this first-level allowance abbreviated turf sprint.  Many lengths the best when second to Rocket Heat (who franked the form with another turf sprint win yesterday), the Miller-trained colt need only leave with his field today to get back on the winning track.  The son of More Than Ready switches to Espinoza, catches a field that, surprisingly, doesn’t have all that much zip in it, and should control proceedings either on the lead or from a cozy stalking outside position as a rolling exotic single.   He’s 5/2 on the morning line, but don’t count on getting it.

ELEVENTH RACE (7:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Unfettered; 3-Oligarch; 8-Second Proposal

Let’s take some shots in the nightcap while going three-deep with three middle price chances.  #3 Oligarch catches what likely will be a far different type of racetrack than the one he had to deal with last month and could easily return to top form.  The Del Mar strip was slower and favored the closers earlier in the meeting but the track has done a complete flip in recent days and now appears to favor the pace runners.  Now in the Sherman barn and returning to his previous winning level, the speedy gelding retains Prat and may very well be the best of the pace-pressing types.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s enticing.  #8 Second Proposal just demolished a softer field with an exceptional late turn of foot; he’s raised three levels in class in a show of confidence by Kruljac, retains Nakatani, and clearly looks the most dangerous of the closers.  #2 Unfettered is an intriguing New Mexico invader with consistent sprint form and speed figures that make him a fit on this circuit.  He’s capable of settling in mid pack and then producing a late run and is worth tossing in at 12-1 on the morning line.  Those who can afford to go deeper should consider #7 Buckleberry Grey and #10 Kafister as back-ups.