AUGUST 14, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $18 investment

1st race: 2, 4

2nd race: 1, 2, 6

3rd race: 2, 6

4th race: 1. 10, 12

5th race: 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Pefiolo; 4-Doyouknowsomething

#2 Pefiolo was a beaten favorite in a similar restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming router last month but did finish more than six clear of the rest, so he’ll be well-backed again today in what appears to be a modest field for the level.  Bejarano stays aboard and should have him within striking range throughout.  #4 Doyouknowsomething stretches out again and seems most effective on the lead going long.  If he can clear early without having to be sent hard, he could stick around for a while.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but note that we’ve graded the race “C” – least preferred or pass – so we suggest you wait for better opportunities later in the program.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Derby Glass; 2-Brimstoned; 6-Hot Lightning

#2 Brimstoned made his first start as a gelding in a M50000 extended sprint here last month and left his previous form far behind with a very impressive victory, winning by almost six lengths with a career-top speed figure, doing most of the damage in the final furlong.  There’s no reason he won’t be just as effective around two turns and looks tough right back.  #1 Derby Glass and #6 Hot Lightning finished heads apart in a similar starter’s allowance main track miler last month; both should fire big shots again today and are tough to separate.  Preferences goes to Brimstoned – we’ll have extra tickets with the Bell-trained gelding on top – but we’ll include all three in rolling exotic play.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Princess Charm; 6-Spirit of Xian

#2 Princess Charm is a fresh off the plane from France and brings with her excellent form in group Stakes Company.  The daughter of Rip Van Winkle won a listed stakes on the soft at Saint-Cloud in April and was most recently third in the Prix Chloe-G3 over firm ground at Chantilly.  She gets Lasix and Espinoza for her U.S. debut, and although she’s shortening up in trip, this mile distance should be well within her scope.  #6 Spirit of Xian should be the controlling speed and given that kind of trip could prove tough to catch.  She won the Providencia S.-G3 in gate-to-wire fashion earlier this year but faced very tough company in two subsequent starts.  We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play while preferring Princess Charm on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Cee The Preacher; 10-Gio Mio; 12-Captain Akers

#1 Cee the Preacher was unprepared for the start and lost all chance in his debut vs. similar state-bred competition last month but he’s returned to train well from the gate since that race and can be expected to improve considerably today.  If he leaves cleanly from the rail, he’ll be a strong factor and offers fair value at 6-1 on the morning line.  #12 Captain Akers already has had four good chances but is still a maiden and his numbers have remained the same (average at best).  Today will be his first without blinkers, he’s drawn comfortably outside, retains Talamo, so we’ll toss him in one more time.  #10 Gio Mio is a first timer from the first crop of Gio Ponti, so his future might be running long on the lawn, but he’s trained well enough for Sherman to warrant a bit of look and he should be a decent price.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Cee the Preacher.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Almost Reality

Seven of these exit the same race but the one that encountered the worst trip (and wound up seventh) may offer considerable wagering value today.  #6 Almost Reality earned a much better number when third facing a good group of colts two runs back, but then didn’t follow through went sent off as the favorite against essentially this group in that  aforementioned July 23^rd race.  She had legitimate excuses, though (very wide throughout from the 11-hole) and today she draws a mid-pack post while adding Lasix and blinkers for the first time.  Two easy workouts since that race indicate the daughter of Desert Code is holding her form, and Garcia stays aboard.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Where Y’at Joe Joe; 5-Pat the Bear; 8-Bandido

#8 Bandido, comfortably drawn outside, is a solid fit on figures and drops 50 percent in claiming value today for the money run while retaining Bejarano.  He just should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position so we’ll put him on top in a tough $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds.  #3 Where Y’at Joe Joe is an interesting Louisiana invader for the Desormeaux brothers and is seeking some of that lucrative ship-and-win purse money.  Although he just won a state-bred allowance race, this drop into a claimer is logical and he’s a fit on numbers.  #5 Pat the Bear plummets in class and clearly is on a downward form cycle, but he was originally claimed for only $30,000 so the drop shouldn’t be considered too suspicious.  He has several past speed figures good enough to win at this level and exits a much tougher race on grass against older company. He’s also back with Espinoza, who has won on him in the past

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-You Know I Know; 5-Awesome Return; 6-Texas Ryano

#4 You Know I Know offers some price value in a strong and competitive long distance turf affair.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for Desormeaux (terrific stats with this angle), he’s protected in an allowance race in a clear sign of confidence, he’s being tried over 11 furlongs despite a six week layoff and a light work tab (long, slow, stamina-building gallops?), plus he has the dangerous blinkers-off angle working for him.  At 10-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use,” but certainly not a single as the race contains two other major players that require strong consideration as well.  #4 Awesome Return should really enjoy the journey and with Smith staying aboard, coupled with the class drop from state-bred stakes company into this two-other-than condition, the Puype-trained colt seems well-placed for a big effort.  The son of Decarchy most likely will settle in the second flight and just grind away from there.  #6 Texas Ryano is yet another who should relish the trip; blinkers go on as Gaines tries to get this colt somewhat involved early on, and with improving recent numbers the son of Curlin could easily be this good.  All three should be used in rolling exotic play with preference to the best price of the three, You Know I Know.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Papa’s Playboy; 10-Giant Warrior; 11-I’ll Play My Hand

This is a challenging nightcap and rolling exotic players likely will need to spread.  #10 Giant Warrior chased an infinitely tougher field in his only prior outing last December and returns in a logical spot for a trainer who can be quite clever with comebackers.  The Red Giant gelding has been training slow and easy for his return but looks very live in a soft field under Talamo.  He’s also a first-time gelding and will race without blinkers.  Sure looks better than 8-1 against this group.  #4 Papa’s Playboy earned a much stronger than par speed figure when nosed out against M20000 foes last time out, but the effort came over a sloppy track and we might not be able to take it at face value.  He’s fast-track form is okay, nothing more, but against this group he has to be included.  #11 I’ll Play My Hand, claimed in June at Churchill Downs for $30,000, returns at that level today and very likely will show big improvement.  He gets blinkers and a cozy outside post and certainly can be expected to show speed.  If you can afford to go a bit deeper, do so, but we’ll try to get by using the three listed above.