AUGUST 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $27 investment

1st race: 1, 4, 5

2nd race: 5. 6, 7

3rd race: 6

4th race: 2, 6

5th race: 1, 3, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Sweet as a Rose; 4-Halljoy; 5-Kadesha

Not a whole lot separates this group of first-level allowance fillies and mares so we’ll go three-deep and otherwise not get involved.  #1 Sweet as a Rose lost her rider at the start in a similar affair last month so she gets another crack at this bunch and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip.  A repeat of her race before last, which produced a career top speed figure, likely will be good enough to win.  #4 Halljoy was a beaten choice at this level over 11 furlongs last month today drops back to a middle distance that she probably will be more comfortable at.  Bejarano stays aboard and should have her within striking range throughout.  #5 Kadesha is another who may not have cared for the trip in the same race Halljoy exits and a repeat of her nice starter’s allowance victory two runs back puts her in the thick of it.  We’ll give Sweet as a Rose a very slight edge on top.a

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Scatastic; 6-Cee the Preacher; 7-Tough It Out

This state-bred juvenile sprint looks fairly wide open and probably requires a spread; we’ll go three-deep while slightly preferring #6 Cee the Preacher on top.  The Machowsky-trained colt was unprepared for the start and lost all chance in his debut, eventually winding up sixth of seven, beaten just under 10 lengths (most of which he had given away at the break).  He’s come back to train quite well from the gate, so if he leaves cleanly today, the son of Lucky Pulpit seems certain to improve a ton.  #7 Tough It Out hails from a clever outfit and is bred for speed; he’s likely better than his modest work tab gives him credit for.  #5 Scatastic, in the money in his last pair, has numbers that are steadily rising and should at least get a piece of it again today.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Gimme Da Lute

#6 Gimme Da Lute seeks his fourth straight win and will be odds-on to keep his winning streak alive.  The Baffert-trained colt has Grade-1 quality speed figures and can handle any distance or pace scenario.  His uncoupled stablemate, #1 Fame and Power, should run much better today from his good rail post and seems likely to make the running.  However, Gimme Da Lute figures to stalk and then exert his superiority when it matters.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Glory Bound; 6-Record Highs

The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s try a couple of newcomers in an unclassified maiden state-bred juvenile sprint.  #6 Record Highs reportedly has some ability so we’ll put him on top.  Most of the Gaines first timers run a bit better than they work so this son of Heatseeker may have found a good spot.  #2 Glory Bound, another son of Heatseeker, showed some speed during the preview session of the Barretts May Sale, working a quarter of a mile over the Del Mar main track in 22 seconds flat.  His recent drills are decent so he should fit nicely in this moderate spot.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but not really with a whole lot of confidence.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Signature Cat; 3-Oil; 8-Mr. Zippers

This first-level state-bred allowance turf sprint looks wide open so we suggest you use as many as you can afford to.  #2 Signature Cat makes his first start since being claimed by D’Amato, so considerable improvement is likely.  Freshened since mid-June, protected in a sign of confidence, and working very well in recent weeks, the Discreet Cat gelding seems most effective when allowed to show his natural speed sprinting and looks dangerous from the rail.  The barn’s go-to rider, Baze, takes the mount.   #3 Oil should like this abbreviated five furlong trip but he’s burned money in each of his last three starts and isn’t necessarily one to trust.  However, you have to use him.  #8 Mr. Zippers won at first asking and did it cleverly; it wasn’t a fast race by any means and this is a much tougher group but the Square Eddie gelding showed a bit of moxie in victory and could outrun his 12-1 morning line odds.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 6-Bluegrass Sight

We’re going to use #6 Bluegrass Sight as a single but this is a default play and in fact it might be wiser to either use them all in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.  ‘Sight has the blinkers off angle we like so much and he’s dropping two levels in class for Miyadi while retaining Talamo.  He exits a much tougher race and has back figures that are good enough to win in this league.  At 5-1 on the morning line he offers a bit of value but we wouldn’t take much less than that.  Tread lightly here.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Shallot; 6-Matter of Luck; 12-Gold Journey

This is another race we have no plans to play but the three listed above are as good as any and small tickets players can use them in rolling exotic play.  However, you should include as many as you can afford to.  #6 Matter of Luck broke her maiden at the bottom here last month and is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer.  She’s a fit on numbers and if she can turn in two alike she can win right back.  #3 Shallot exits a much tougher race on turf and a repeat of her race before last – a maiden claiming win at Los Alamitos – charts well with this group.  #12 Gold Journey usually gets at least a piece of it and is drawn comfortably outside.  She’ll likely get the stalking trip she enjoys.  We’ve graded this race a “C” so nothing would surprise us.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Semper Fortis; 6-Who’s Out

#4 Semper Fortis was 14 lengths clear of the third horse in a promising debut effort when second behind highly-rated winner Blameitonthelaw and probably won’t be facing anything that good in here.  Any kind of forward move should make him tough to beat.  #6 Who’s Out was actually favored in the same race Semper Fortis and was a strong pace factor for a half before folding up.  He’s come back to train quite well since that race and may deserve another chance so we’ll toss him in as well.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Holograeme; 5- Sweet; 8-Daddy’s Duo

#4 Holograeme was somewhat victimized by an extreme outside post and settled for third money in a similar event earlier this month.  She’s drawn better today, retains Baze, and has plenty of room for improvement in what is just her fifth lifetime start for D’Amato.  Two easy workouts since her last race should have the daughter of Graeme Hall on edge.  #5 Sweet has steadily improving numbers for Mandella and should produce a good late run.  Prat should have her settled in the second flight, ready to pounce.  #8 Daddy’s Duo tries two turns for the first time and the daughter of Scat Daddy certainly should like it.  Her natural speed should allow Perez to draft into a good pace prompting position and if she continues to progress, the Desormeaux trained filly has a real look here at 8-1 on the morning line.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics, with Holograeme getting a slight edge on top.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 7-Soul Flyer; 8-Don’t Tell Judy; 9-Stellata; 12-Parasail

This race is a mess; we’ll use four but feel free to go deeper if you can.  #7 Soul Flier shortens up a half-furlong in her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and tougher today in this moderate straight maiden sprint for older fillies and mares.  The Canani-trained filly retains Van Dyke and a bullet three furlong blowout just five days ago should have the daughter of Bertrando right on edge.  #8 Don’t Tell Judy has shown some ability in the morning for Owens and is bred to win early (Rocky Bar). #9 Stellata, another debut runner, is a daughter of Stormin’ Fever with a decent set of works and might actually be heard from late.   #12 Parasail, a first timer by Surf Cat in the Gus Headley barn, has a series of fast works to her credit, as per usual from this stable, and we’re expecting her to display good early speed.  Maybe she can clear and get brave.