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AUGUST 6, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $81 investment

1st race: 3, 4, 6

2nd race: 3, 4

3rd race: 1, 6, 7

4th race: 4, 7, 8

5th race: 1, 7, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Avicii; 4-Always a Chance; 6-Two Step Flor

We’re going three-deep in a six-runner field, so it’s clear that we don’t really have a handle on this extended $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares (hence the “C” grade).  #3 Avicii is a Kentucky invader that is fairly interesting; she makes her local debut for high percentage trainer D’Amato and reportedly has looked good in a series of works over the Del Mar racetrack.  She’s dropping to her lowest level ever (due, perhaps to the ship-and-win incentive) and has a good stalking style that should allow Graham to pick his spot.  #4 Always a Chance was sharp in a going-away win opening day with a nice speed figure and moves up a notch for new trainer Kitchingman while retaining Baze.  #6 Two Step Flor, first off the claim for Martin (30% with this angle), looks very much like the controlling speed and switches to Bejarano.  If she shakes clear early without pressure she may never look back.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Scarlet Emerald; 4-Amare

#3 Scarlet Emerald veered in sharply and was off slowly from the rail, rushed up to flash good zip inside to the turn while seemingly uncomfortable in the sloppy going, remained a threat until the head of the lane, then quickly dropped out of it while chasing what might be the quickest juvenile filly in the West (Pretty N Cool).  The Miller-trained daughter of Desert Party drops into a high priced claimer today and shortens to five furlongs; if she breaks cleanly today she could be long gone.  #4 Amare has shown some ability in the morning for D’Amato and is realistically placed after bringing $60,000 at auction just a couple of weeks ago.  The barn is solid with first-timers and the daughter of Flatter looks clearly the most dangerous of the newcomers.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Scarlet Emerald on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Tribalist; 6-Saticoy; 7-Kristi’s Copilot

#6 Saticoy earned a whopping 95 Beyer figure when winning his debut way back in January of 2013, so you know he can run well fresh.  A couple of poor runs last year were followed by another visit to the farm; he returns off the bench for a third time but remains protected, an indication that Mandella believes he still has something of a future.  He’ll make his first start today as a gelding and has trained like he’s fit and ready; most of the Bertrando’s like turf so the switch in surface can be considered a positive as well.  He looks like a very live item at 7/2 on the morning with Smith taking the call.  #1 Tribalist is another comebacker worth consideration.  The son of Tribal Rule, off the track for just over a year, has trained nicely for Heap and should enjoy a good second flight, ground-saving trip.  He’ll be running on late.  #7 Kristi’s Copilot, yet another live layoff runner in the field, was a debut winner last year and shows a 58 1/5 seconds workout at Los Alamitos last week to indicate he’s retained all of his speed.  Prat takes the call for Jones and at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets on top keying Saticoy.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-The Cleaners; 7-Chasing the Heat; 8-Jet Warrior

#8 Jet Warrior is being thrown away by Hollendorfer in his first start since February and clearly isn’t expected to stay around for very long, but that doesn’t mean he can’t win today.  The son of Jet West has trained like he’s plenty fit, lands the cozy outside post, and is good enough to beat this $16,000 claiming field with anything close to his best race.  Not sure why Bejarano isn’t riding; he was aboard in this gelding’s three previous starts.  Lots of question marks here, which is why we’re going three-deep. Speaking of uncertainties, #4 The Cleaners won his last race cleverly at Santa Anita during the third week of June and was claimed for $25,000; today he shows up in his first-off-the-claim for Hess for $16,000.  He seems to be training well enough but he’s clearly for sale and with this kind of pattern the barn could be either trying to steal or purse or unload damaged merchandise.  Arguably the healthiest of the three that we’ll be using in our rolling exotics is #7 Chasing the Heat.  The Dominguez-trained gelding is an intriguing New Mexico invader with sharp recent form against quarter horses, and his races against thoroughbreds are pretty good, too.  His speed figures stack up well, so at 8-1 on the morning line you have to use him. 

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Alltheleavesrbrown; 7-Admiral Jaxon; 8-Love On the Road

This really is a swing-for-the-fences type of race; the three listed above all will be excellent prices and while the race is deep in contention and requires a spread in rolling exotic play we’ll try to get by without using the logical favorites.  #1 Alltheleavesrbrown, away since last September and a first-time gelding, has trained quite well for his comeback for a barn that excels with layoff runners.  The son of Big Brown gets the rail and Talamo and should inherit an ideal ground-saving, pace prompting spot.  His form as a two year old on turf at Arlington Park was quite good and the numbers were strong, so this first-time gelding looks extremely live at 5-1 on the morning line.  #8 Love On the Road stretches out for the first time to a distance he’s bred to like, and the improving son of Bellamy Road may be the most dangerous of the closers.  He’s been quite impressive in the morning of late for Heap and retains Gonzalez; there’s definitely plenty of value here at 10-1 on the morning line.  #7 Admiral Jaxon had an impossible task in his last start; the field left before he was actually loaded in the gate and to finish fifth, beaten just over 11 lengths, was a truly remarkable accomplishment, albeit against a lesser group of maiden claimers.  The Mullins-trained gelding is better than his morning line of 15-1 would indicate, and if he takes to the turf, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus will be heard from late.  We’ll give preference to Alltheleavesrbrown on top but a win my any of the three listed above will be more than acceptable.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Astra Star; 4-Princess Kendra; 10-Alizarin Beauty

This race is borderline inscrutable; we’ll go three-deep but if you can afford to use a few more, by all means do so.  We’ve rated this race a “C” so proceed with caution.  #4 Princess Kendra exits a decent race, retains Prat and should be part of the pace throughout.  She doesn’t offer any real wagering value at 5/2 on the morning line but you have to use her.  #2 Astra Star, exiting the same race as Princess Kendra, was given a bit of a run in her debut and seems certain to improve for Miyadi.  We’re expecting she’ll be finishing well.  #10 Alizarin Beauty is a second time starter dropping into a claimer and adding blinkers.  Her first race wasn’t bad and she may have a bit more room to improve then some of the others.  Anything, truly, can happen here.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Indecise; 4-Istanford

#4 Istanford wasn’t comfortable when fourth behind Gas Total is the off-the-turf Osunitas Stakes last month but she’s back on her preferred surface today and seems very likely to regain her best form.  A perfect two-for-two over the local lawn, the Stidham-trained filly does her best running on the lead and on paper clearly looks like the controlling speed.  A sharp recent workout around dogs on turf signals her readiness and we like her strongly on top.  #2 Indecise also has been impressive in the morning of late – her workmates have been Beholder and Bal a Bali – and though she’s been stopped and started on a number of times throughout her career she seems as healthy now as she’s ever been.  Preference goes to Istanford and if you’re in need of a rolling exotic single, she’s as good a candidate as any. 

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Jens de Ville; 8-Santiago’s Home

#3 Jens de Ville makes his first start since being claimed by Miller (strong 22% with this angle) and after finishing a solid third in a similar event opening week, the Decarchy gelding looks capable of producing enough of a forward move to beat this group.  We’ll also toss in a real tote buster, #8 Santiago’s Home, listed at 15-1 on the morning line.  Based on what we saw of his debut over a sloppy track here opening week, the New Mexico-bred gelding could easily become the controlling speed while stretching out to a mile.  How far he’ll be able to take them is anybody’s guess, but against a group like this lone speed is always dangerous.  This is a tough race to get past using just two and there are others in here that a decent case could be made, so if you can afford to spread, go for it.