AUGUST 20, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $36 investment

1st race: 1, 4

2nd race: 1, 3

3rd race: 1, 2, 5

4th race: 3, 6, 10

5th race: 1, 3

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Lookin for Money; 4-Belle Et Bete

#1 Looking for Money just beat a slightly softer field in solid fashion and conditions seem ideal for a similar effort today.  From her good inside draw the O’Neill-trained filly should draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving spot and have every chance to duplicate her most recent win.  Prat stays aboard.  #4 Belle Et Bete, a disappointing fifth when favored in the same race Lookin for Money won, moves up a level for new trainer D’Amato (strong 25% with this angle) and switches to Bejarano.  She’s trained well since changing barns, so we’re expecting significant forward move today.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Looking for Money on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Power of Hope; 3-Dream Police

#1 Power of Hope showed no early speed in his recent sprint debut but began to figure things out a bit in the final furlong while in dire need of the experience.  The Ellis-trained colt stretches out to what should be a much more suitable trip and if makes the kind of progress we expect he should be a major player in this main track miler.  The main concern is the recent pro-speed nature of the main track and if it exists today ‘Hope will most likely have to buck it.  #3 Dream Police finished a solid second in his first try around two turns in January at Santa Anita but then disappeared.  He has a series of solid works for his comeback and this stable has a superior record with layoff runners, so we anticipate that this gelding will be ready.  He’s a strong fit off the speed figure he earned in his last race. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference to Power of Hope, who probably has a bit higher ceiling.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Rocket Heat; 2-Jazzy Josh; 5-Smack Talk

The Pick-6 begins with an abbreviated turf sprint that requires a spread.  #2 Jazzy Josh is a route-to-sprint, main track-to-turf play for Miller and is reunited with Espinoza, who has won on him in the past.  The Kantharos gelding should be quite effective under these conditions and represents good value at or around his 5-1 morning line.  #5 Smack Talk makes his first start on turf and if he can transfer his best main track effort to the lawn he can win.  The Belvoir-trained gelding continues to impress in the morning and should fire his best shot from a second flight, stalking spot.  #1 Rocket Heat has only one way to go – on the lead – and after holding on desperately to beat a strong allowance field last time out he’s actually tackling a bit easier today in this high priced claimer restricted to 3-year-olds.  He’ll take them as far as he can.  Let’s triple the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Jazzy Josh on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Some Caan Job; 6-Tequila Mary; 10-Miss Lori

There’s not a whole lot to work with in this M30000 sprint for juveniles; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #3 Some Caan Job has finished in the money in her last three starts and may have found a field she can beat.  Her numbers are decent and this shortening to five and one-half furlongs won’t hurt.  #6 Tequila Mary showed some run in her debut up north but failed to build on that when unplaced in a similar maiden claimer at Del Mar last month.  She goes for new trainer Sherman, has worked well for her new outfit, and must be given a chance to bounce back and repeat the quality of first race, which would make her a major contender.  #10 Miss Lori appears to be the most interesting of the newcomers, though this barn doesn’t win often with first timers.  The works are okay and she certainly won’t have to be a world beater to fit with this group.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Sheza Eyeopener; 3-Nevaeh’s Promise

#1 Sheza Eyeopener couldn’t handle the sloppy surface and finished far back when claimed for $12,500 last month; she returns on the one-level drop for the Miyadi barn, which boasts superb stats with first-off-claim plays.  She also has that blinkers-off angle that we’re so fond of.  From her favorable race post the daughter of Grand Reward should inherit an ideal ground-saving, second flight stalking spot.  #3 Nevaeh’s Promise is a Bay Area invader showing up cheap for Mathis while seeking to regain her best form.  She’s lacking in tactical speed and if the track continues to favorite the front-runners she’s going to have a difficult task, but we’ll include her due to the possibility that she’ll regain her confidence against this modest group.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Indigo Illusion; 7-One Bye Two; 9-Fast Escape

#9 Fast Escape is drawn outside the other main speed and should enjoy a perfect pace-prompting trip.  She’s fastest on speed figures, exits a productive race, and has maintained her form in the a.m. since her last start for Bonde.  #7 One Bye Two is the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can.  Today’s extra half furlong won’t do her any favors but with another forward she might be able to stick it out.  #5 Indigo Illusion previewed nicely at the Barretts May Sale and should be a fit at this level.  She hails from a clever barn and offers some price value at 8-1 on the morning line.  Preference goes to Fast Escape but we’ll use all three in rolling exotic play.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Saint of Saints; 8-Olympic Blue

#1 Saint of Saints arrives fit and ready for a huge run and has much in his favor in this starter’s allowance middle distance turf event.  Now in the D’Amato barn, the Midwest shipper is solid in the speed figure department and shows two excellent workouts since coming to California.  From the rail he should be on or near the lead throughout.  #8 Olympic Blue, a winner opening day and protected by new trainer Miller, is tough on any surface and knows how to win races.  He can sit close to the pace and rally from far back, so Prat can play it by ear.  We’ll give the edge to Saint of Saints but double the race in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Show and Tell; 7-Ladies Man; 11-Better Luck

#7 Ladies Man couldn’t handle the sloppy surface against a similar field last month and finished far back, but the Cerin-trained gelding has done some very good work in the morning since that race and on a dry/fast surface today could turn in a major form reversal.  He’s a fit on numbers, switches to Talamo, and removes blinkers, so all systems are go.  #11 Better Luck, away since February, returns for Miller showing a series of good works at San Luis Rey Downs and may be a better type this time around.  A repeat of his race before last puts him right there.  #6 Show and Tell earned a career top figure when second in a similar bottom-rung maiden claimer (while finishing almost five clear of the rest) and if he can turn in two alike he can be a strong factor as well.  We’ll try survive using just these three while preferring Ladies Man on top.