AUGUST 27, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 2, 3

2nd race: 3, 6

3rd race: 1, 2, 6

4th race: 1, 6, 7

5th race: 2, 4, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Ike Walker; 3-Doyouknowsomething

#2 Ike Walker earned a career-top speed figure when second over this track and distance at this level earlier this month – he was more than five clear of the rest – and today makes his first start for new trainer Belvoir while retaining Talamo.  In a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early zip in it, the Bellamy Road gelding should be on or near the lead throughout.  #3 Doyouknowsomething, first off the claim for Lucarelli (powerful stats with this angle), finished second in a restricted (nw-2) race for this price two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly while switching to Bejarano.  He, too, earned a career top number in his most recent start and has the type of tactical speed that can have him comfortably placed in a stalking/prompting spot.  The winner should be one or the other so we’ll use them both in rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Ike Walker on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 3-Treasuring; 6-Shakti

#3 Treasuring was impressive in her debut – she finished a distant third behind highly-regarded Songbird in what was an obvious prep – and the Baffert-trained filly should step forward considerably today.  She was scratched out of a logical spot Aug. 9 and worked three days later and then came back with two solid five furlong drills each five days apart, so we can safely assume she’s fit and ready.  The daughter of Smart Strike figures to improve a ton over a distance of ground and may go lower than her morning line odds of 7/5.  #6 Shakti is another that should move forward in a big way two-turning; the Miller-trained daughter of Runaway and Hide appeared to find her best stride too late when a non-threatening sixth of 10 behind One Last Shot in a hot maiden sprint earlier this month.  Three easy workouts since that race indicate she’s doing fine and Talamo stays aboard for a barn that has excellent stats with second-time starters.  Treasuring is clearly the top pick and small ticket players probably should use her as a rolling exotic single.  Shakti can be included as a backup and as an exacta partner.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Sinfully; 2-Okaad; 6-Antinanco

This is a spread race with several possibilities; we’ll go three-deep and hope to survive.  #1 Sinfully broke poorly and then didn’t raise a gallop with last of 10 in a beaten (restricted) $32,000 claimer on turf earlier this month, so he’s cut in half in claiming price to the non-winners of three $16,000 level and returns to the main track today.  His best should be more than good enough to handle this assignment but with just two wins and 11 seconds and thirds, he’s never really been one to trust.  #2 Okaad plummets in class for Aguirre and should move forward in his second off a long layoff with a stretch out in trip.  Last of eight against an infinitely tougher field over five furlongs on turf  earlier this month, the Cherokee Run gelding has run well routing in the past, shows two easy workouts since raced and retains Iggy.  He looks like a major player today.  #6 Antinanco moves up from $10,000 open to $16,000 restricted so this “hike” in class really isn’t really a raise at all and on pure speed figures the Machowsky-trained gelding is a solid fit.  He’s also shortening to a mile – a better distance for him – and should be able to fold over and secure a good stalking spot. 

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Not too Shiny; 6-Pearl de Vere; 7-Sweet Profit

This is another open event that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  #1 Not too Shiny shows up in a claimer for the first time and the Kruljac-trained mare appears well-spotted, though as a late-running sprinter breaking from the rail at this abbreviated five furlong trip she’s going to need some luck.  Ninth of 10 over this course and distance against a considerably tougher band of sprinting fillies and mares, she makes her second start off a layoff while retaining Nakatani and should be running on strongly late.  #6 Pearl de Vere ran two very good races down the Hillside course at Santa Anita in the spring but was nowhere in a poor effort over this main track earlier this meeting.  She’s back on grass today and switches to Bejarano so we’re expecting this Eurton-trained mare, like Nice too Shiny, to be doing her best work in the final furlong.  #7 Sweet Profit was a solid third over this course and distance in a first-level allowance race earlier this month and returns to the claiming ranks – although still above her claim level – while retaining Prat.  Her numbers are gradually improving and she has enough early speed to gain a favorable second flight position in a race in which the speed types look vulnerable.  Because she exits the best race, Not too Shiny deserves a very slight edge on top but we’ll be going three-deep in our rolling exotics.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Jimmy the Juice; 4-I’m Not Bullish; 7-Hank the Tank

This M80000 juvenile main track sprint appears loaded with live newcomers.  #2 Jimmy the Juice worked a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds and looked fairly decent during the preview session of the OBS June sale; the Yakteen-trained son of Speightstown was subsequently purchased at auction for $50,000 so this placement in a high priced claimer makes sense.  A recent 47 flat gate work (third fastest of 41) should have him cranked and ready under Baze, so we’ll put him on top.  #7 Hank the Tank, a $77,000 buy at the OBS April sale, displayed good speed when previewing in 21 2/5 seconds and his work tab for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs looks acceptable.  He’s drawn comfortably outside and should flash big speed under Garcia.  #4 I’m Not Bullish has shown a bit of spark in the morning for Eurton and lands Bejarano, so we’ll toss him in as well.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Kyankes; 9-Housemaker

This is an uninspiring mid-grade turf claimer for fillies and mares and it’s not a race we’re planning to get involved in.  #2 Kyankes was just claimed for $40,000 and is wheeled back for $32,000 by Hess, so it’s hard to gauge what  kind of shape this filly is in, though with the Del Mar purse structure the way it is these drops off claims can’t really be considered suspicious anymore.  The good news is that Bejarano rides her back, and she’s reportedly looked sharp  in recent works, so we suspect the daughter of Rockport Harbor will run at least as well as she did last time, when she finished a pretty decent third.  #9 Housemaker, second the same race Kyankes exits, is drawn poorly outside but her numbers are rising and the O’Neill-trained filly looks the most dangerous of the closing types.  These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotic play but not with a great deal of confidence or enthusiasm, hence the “C” grade.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 4-Swiss Cheese

#4 Swiss Cheese was visually quite impressive in his racing debut and was promptly claimed by Miyadi, who protects this gelding in a starter’s allowance.  ‘Cheese earned a solid figure when handling his bottom-rung maiden claiming foes with plenty left and looks more than capable of repeating on the raise for a barn that boasts superior stats with this angle.  A sharp 47 seconds flat workout (third fastest of 96) just four days ago is another plus.  Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Moose Skowron; 5-Rickles; 10-Tribal Zone

This $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for juveniles looks inscrutable; the only way to be assured of getting past it is to mark the “all” box.  The three listed above are for small ticket players and appear to have as good a chance as any.  #5 Rickles finished an okay second in a slightly softer field here earlier this month and may not have to improve all that much to beat this group.  #2 Moose Skowron debuts for D’Amato following a string of moderate workouts at San Luis Rey Downs; he’s not likely to be any kind of world beater but in a soft field he might be worth tossing in due to the connections.  #10 Tribal Zone failed to beat a horse in a 5-runner straight maiden sprint at Pleasanton in Junes but is a first-time gelding dropping into a claimer with a pair of sharp works over this track.  At 6-1 on the morning line he may offer the best value in the field.